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Mid/Late February will be rocking. (This year we mean it!) February long range discussion.


JenkinsJinkies
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Sterling mentions  wintry precip possibilities.... 

 

Some of the ensembles have
wintry precipitation funneling into the area late Monday night into
early Tuesday. Given the synoptic pattern, it will take a
strengthening cold air blast to be settled into the area ahead or
along the precipitation shield. We will continue to monitor this
system over the next several days. A cooling pattern will likely
take place shortly after this event.
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I thought someone said the control run is the EURO at lower resolution but will soon be taking over as the main EURO models at a higher resolution.

The control has always been the OP run at slightly lower resolution. Next year we won’t have an OP we will be relying on the EPS and control

As for the GFS and temps. Who cares? It has a completely different evolution than the euro so until that’s settled it doesn’t matter.

This looks like it may have ended up phasing with the second NS piece as well. See what happens at 00z 3f37b468f598a24c80547bcc8481d43b.gif


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Looks like maybe 12 hours or so later than GFS?

Yes because it’s separating the N/S and main shortwave. Until one camp caves it’s hard to take any run serious. GFS is usually the one that does the caving so I’d lean euro evolution personally.


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4 minutes ago, Heisy said:


Yes because it’s separating the N/S and main shortwave. Until one camp caves it’s hard to take any run serious. GFS is usually the one that does the caving so I’d lean euro evolution personally.


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Not sure which is better for us. The Euro would be colder but we risk it not coming north enough. 

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