February 2024

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Not sure if I can digest the study in this link concerning the oceans absorbing atmospheric heat...

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9452516/

I found these two parts interesting

Over the last twenty years of the full forcing simulation, the weakening AMOC in the North Atlantic (Supplementary Fig. ⁴) may be linked to positive redistribution feedbacks that have been previously described in a coupled climate model⁴⁰. In this feedback, a weakened AMOC decreases meridional heat transport in the North Atlantic, leading to a divergence of heat, cooler SSTs and increased heat uptake in the subpolar gyre, which in turn further weakens the AMOC^40,41. It is unclear if this feedback mechanism is contributing to the North Atlantic changes in the full forcing simulation, as heat uptake north of the Equator decreases (–0.6 × 10²¹ J year⁻¹) and heat transport increases (+0.6 × 10²¹ J year⁻¹) over the last twenty years of the run, compared to the full period.

 

....

 

In summary, our experiments emphasise that recent trends in Southern Ocean surface winds, surface air temperature and radiation have driven almost all of the globally integrated ocean warming of the past half century. Increased observational coverage over the Southern Ocean is therefore key to reconcile global surface heat fluxes, ocean heat uptake and heat content changes, as well as building increased confidence in climate models and climate change projections for the coming decades.

 

[snowman19]

Guess the early March SSW is going to go down in flames….again. Doesn’t look like it’s going to downwell into the lower stratosphere and couple with the troposphere. Surprise, surprise….another hyped fail incoming. Time to declare this winter dead

[the_other_guy]

Was it supposed to get this warm today? I had a forecast high of 46. I’m now up to 54.

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Was it supposed to get this warm today? I had a forecast high of 46. I’m now up to 54.

Wow-only 46 here

[MJO812]

46 here

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Guess the early March SSW is going to go down in flames….again. Doesn’t look like it’s going to downwell into the lower stratosphere and couple with the troposphere. Surprise, surprise….another hyped fail incoming. Time to declare this winter dead
 

probably best to let things play out. wouldn’t be surprising to see a -NAO form from a retrograding Scandi high around the 10-15th or so. it’s been showing up on ensembles

not saying it’s going to produce winter weather, but there’s no real point in ruling it out totally at this range 

[BucksCO_PA]

23 hours ago, snowman19 said:

After all the non stop hype from some since November, around 2 weeks total of true arctic cold in mid-January and one 10+ storm (one 8-9 inch storm for my neck of the woods)…going into March…that’s all we have to show for it….pretty sad

After wk 2 the winter weeklies have been wretched going back to the 2019-2020 winter. Surprised we continue to see these plastered all over outlets by the same regarded mets every year.

The great March run we had last decade has definitely run it's course, been put to bed for several years so expectations are virtually non-existent at this point.

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

After wk 2 the winter weeklies have been wretched going back to the 2019-2020 winter. Surprised we continue to see these plastered all over outlets by the same regarded mets every year.

The great March run we had last decade has definitely run it's course, been put to bed for several years so expectations are virtually non-existent at this point.

And the weeklies running every day is even worse-more bad info 7 days a week instead of twice

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

probably best to let things play out. wouldn’t be surprising to see a -NAO form from a retrograding Scandi high around the 10-15th or so. it’s been showing up on ensembles

not saying it’s going to produce winter weather, but there’s no real point in ruling it out totally at this range 

If we do get a lucky event-that would be the time frame. Climo still on our side until about then as well.

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Wow-only 46 here

Could my car be that far off??

[snowman19]

18 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

After wk 2 the winter weeklies have been wretched going back to the 2019-2020 winter. Surprised we continue to see these plastered all over outlets by the same regarded mets every year.

The great March run we had last decade has definitely run it's course, been put to bed for several years so expectations are virtually non-existent at this point.

The weeklies are wretched. God awful, horrible, worst I’ve ever seen in all my years as a weather hobbyist. This fail/bust was one for the ages. If the weeklies said the sky was blue I wouldn’t believe them

[Brian5671]

42 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Could my car be that far off??

I think it's off...most stations were in the mid to upper 40's

[Brian5671]

41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The weeklies are wretched. God awful, horrible, worst I’ve ever seen in all my years as a weather hobbyist. This fail/bust was one for the ages. If the weeklies said the sky was blue I wouldn’t believe them

They have been bad for sure-a couple years ago they had a great pattern but it was always 3-4 weeks away....let's remember this next year....

[donsutherland1]

This weekend will feature a brief push of cooler air into the region. The cold shot will be shortlived. Afterward, temperatures will quickly rebound. Afterward, temperatures will remain generally above normal through the remainder of February. The potential exists for the closing days of February to wind up much warmer than normal. Little or no additional snowfall is likely in the New York City or Philadelphia areas through the remainder of February.

March will likely begin with generally unseasonable warmth through the first 7-10 days of the month. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region during that time.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around February 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.72°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade.  

The SOI was -3.75 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.171 today.

On February 21 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.126 (RMM). The February 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.432 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 39.9° (4.0° above normal).

Winter 2023-2024 is on course to finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 40.5°-40.7°. That would rank the current winter among the ten warmest on record in New York City. It would also mark the second time when two consecutive winters have ranked among the top ten in terms of warmth. Winters 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are currently the only two such winters to rank among the ten warmest on record. It would also be the first time on record that New York City has seen two consecutive winters with 40.0° or above mean temperatures. Since 1869, there have been six winters with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above. Five have occurred since 2000.

 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Wasn’t Jan 22 -EPO? I may be misremembering. 

Yeah, we had an neutral to slightly -EPO in Jan 22. But it wasn’t the wall to wall stronger  -EPO for much of the winter like in 13-14 and 14-15. It’s been very tough to get extended winter -EPOs beyond a few weeks to a month since then. The EPS has had issues showing too much -EPO beyond 10 to 15 days only to correct weaker the closer in we get. The coming week was originally forecast to be a strong -EPO -NAO pattern. The model has been doing this all winter in the 3rd and 4th weeks. 
 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The weeklies are wretched. God awful, horrible, worst I’ve ever seen in all my years as a weather hobbyist. This fail/bust was one for the ages. If the weeklies said the sky was blue I wouldn’t believe them

We had a few events. Maybe next year things will turn around. Other than the freakish warmth, this was pretty much an 80s type winter. Time to plan the garden, change the fishing lines, sharpen the hooks. 

[Intensewind002]

Red sky at night, sailor’s delight

[donsutherland1]

With little or no additional snowfall likely in New York City through the remainder of February, the probability that Central Park will see its first case of two consecutive winters with less than 10.0" seasonal snowfall has increased. Below are the numbers for select snowfall amounts through February. The highlighted row indicates where Winter 2023-2024 will very likely stand when February concludes.

[lee59]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

With little or no additional snowfall likely in New York City through the remainder of February, the probability that Central Park will see its first case of two consecutive winters with less than 10.0" seasonal snowfall has increased. Below are the numbers for select snowfall amounts through February. The highlighted row indicates where Winter 2023-2024 will very likely stand when February concludes.

If I am not mistaken only Central Park is below 10 inches. All other city locations are above.

[gravitylover]

4 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Was it supposed to get this warm today? I had a forecast high of 46. I’m now up to 54.

I know it popped the 50 mark while I was out but my dumb ass forgot to look at the temp on the dashboard. Here on my still snow covered hill it stayed at 45. Yup, still mostly snow covered  especially northerly aspects where there's still a few inches but my backyard still has 2-3" too because it's sheltered. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

If I am not mistaken only Central Park is below 10 inches. All other city locations are above.

Yeah but barely... LGA is probably closest to where NYC should be, so neutralizing the undermeasurement would likely get NYC only to 10.2-10.8 inches

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With little or no additional snowfall likely in New York City through the remainder of February, the probability that Central Park will see its first case of two consecutive winters with less than 10.0" seasonal snowfall has increased. Below are the numbers for select snowfall amounts through February. The highlighted row indicates where Winter 2023-2024 will very likely stand when February concludes.

Although JFK did not get back to back single digit winters, they already had this in the late 90s, right, Don? Was it 1997-98 and 1998-99 Don-- and again in 2001-02 to make it 3 years out of 5?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

I know it popped the 50 mark while I was out but my dumb ass forgot to look at the temp on the dashboard. Here on my still snow covered hill it stayed at 45. Yup, still mostly snow covered  especially northerly aspects where there's still a few inches but my backyard still has 2-3" too because it's sheltered. 

I was looking at pictures from the 2010-11 winter and wow did we have an amazing amount of snowcover that season..... looking at pictures from Boxing Day and also in February when the snowcover was at maximum extent there were several feet of snow in my backward which made everything seem level.....

 

[donsutherland1]

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Although JFK did not get back to back single digit winters, they already had this in the late 90s, right, Don? Was it 1997-98 and 1998-99 Don-- and again in 2001-02 to make it 3 years out of 5?

 

1996-97 and 1997-98. 3 out of 5 winters when 1994-95 is included.

[LibertyBell]

52 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

1996-97 and 1997-98. 3 out of 5 winters when 1994-95 is included.

wow what a historic period, Don!

so if you include the period from 1994-95 to 2001-02 it was 4 out of 8 winters.

Having 1993-94 just before that period and the all time historic 1995-96 during that period, eased the pain a bit....

 

[the_other_guy]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow what a historic period, Don!

so if you include the period from 1994-95 to 2001-02 it was 4 out of 8 winters.

Having 1993-94 just before that period and the all time historic 1995-96 during that period, eased the pain a bit....

 

it isn’t linear with Central Park. Jfk is very influenced by the water, and as somebody that lived in wading river for most of his life, I could tell you that it wasn’t unusual to have an all or nothing type winter. The water is always too warm for snow.

 

what has changed since the 1990s is that the “inland” urban stations are much warmer. And the types of snowfall we get are now from the water, larger storms pulling in cold air. Less frequent and stronger.

 

It Rearranges the deck chairs on the titanic. There’s a high possibility that if you are adjacent to the coast you could jackpot. we’ve seen this on Long Island several times over the last 15 to 20 years. It isnt a normal phenomenon in our area. 287 N and W should jackpot based on historic climatology. that’s why you’ve had all that record snow in places like Islip.

 

over the last few years, you have seen a return to the more historical jackpot areas as it is simply too warm to snow. N and W are getting scraps in a declining snow regime and urban areas are getting shut out altogether

 

 

[TJW014]

Light rain with the occasional big wet snowflake this morning. 36*

[Snowshack]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

it isn’t linear with Central Park. Jfk is very influenced by the water, and as somebody that lived in wading river for most of his life, I could tell you that it wasn’t unusual to have an all or nothing type winter. The water is always too warm for snow.

Depends on how you define 'nothing'.   Using BNL's snowfall stats (right next to us in Wading River) - from when their record starts in 1947 through 1990 there was only one year with under 10" of snowfall.   Since 1990 there have been 7.   That definitely seems like a change.   

[the_other_guy]

3 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

Depends on how you define 'nothing'.   Using BNL's snowfall stats (right next to us in Wading River) - from when their record starts in 1947 through 1990 there was only one year with under 10" of snowfall.   Since 1990 there have been 7.   That definitely seems like a change.   

having a house in Queens and a house in wading River, you were much more likely to have a stabilized snowfall regime in Queens then in Wading River in the 1990s. That started to go crazy with super heavy snowfalls along the coast as we got into the 2000s.

[lee59]

Since 2000 the average DJF winter temperature is lower at Kennedy than at LaGuardia and Central Park. Considering Kennedy is right on the Atlantic Ocean and the other 2 are not, I believe it shows how much the heat island affect has taken hold.