Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I thought the WAA was more impressive in Jan 7th deal...it was immense. One of the more impressive WAA displays I have witnessed. 

Yes. I wasn’t saying WAA always is overdone, just more often than CCB stuff. Front end thumps can be awesome…but models will sometimes overdo it. 
 

12/16/07 is often our favorite WAA event to talk about around here. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Let’s grab 3-6” on the front boobs and 2-4 on the ass end 

[ineedsnow]

this seems underdone

[H2Otown_WX]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure how you arrive at that.....

Sorry, autism

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

this seems underdone

Def underdone in N ORH county 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def underdone in N ORH county 

Those Berkshire channels probably act like N orh county is so far away they don’t even care to try

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Those Berkshire channels probably act like N orh county is so far away they don’t even care to try

there out of Springfield

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

there out of edibles 

Looks like they finished them off making that map 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looks like a map a 3’rd grader made 

usually does.. they always seem low everywhere  

[CoastalWx]

Gfs is a nice Blue Hill to Foxboro look. 

[CoastalWx]

Pretty rare to CAA like that from the NE.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs is a nice Blue Hill to Foxboro look. 

Gfs blows 3-5” on kuchie region wide 6” in berks

 

but i do realize this is war as far as backyard weather 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Gfs blows 3-5” on kuchie region wide - except southern CT of course .. 

Fixed it for you lol .. this is just a nowcast for everyone, every piece of guidance is different with every aspect of this storm.. 

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looks like they finished them off making that map 

that map looks exactly like this one for a different storm pick and choose lol

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Gfs blows 3-5” on kuchie region wide 

but i do realize this is war as far as backyard weather 

The positive snow depth numbers in these marginal events are not impressive.

GFS

NAM

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

that map looks exactly like this one for a different storm pick and choose lol

So they have a few accumulation templates lol 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, powderfreak said:

The positive snow depth numbers in these marginal events are not impressive.

GFS

NAM

 

Will said just yesterday they are not useful and way off in elevated terrain in these types of events. 

[scoob40]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def underdone in N ORH county 

Possibly but i don't think they're broadcast territory includes the folks up there.

[powderfreak]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Will said just yesterday they are not useful and way off in elevated terrain in these types of events. 

Yeah very well could be.  Just worth noting when they are so much different than the other snow output.  It gives me pause, it worked well up here in several of the paster events in December. 

[jbenedet]

That early H5 occlusion gonna cause heartburn up until go time. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah very well could be.  Just worth noting when they are so much different than the other snow output.  It gives me pause, it worked well up here in several of the paster events in December. 

I’ve always thought since we started tracking that you’d want at least some elevation to get more than a few inches . No matter if you’re north or south of 90

[jbenedet]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

that map looks exactly like this one for a different storm pick and choose lol

Kinda makes sense with that early H5 occlusion causing two qpf maxes, one west, the other east, later on Monday. Much less in between…

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Kinda makes sense with that early H5 occlusion causing two qpf maxes, one west, the other east, later on Monday. Much less in between…

1-4 in N ORH County?  Sell   I don't doubt the 2 areas of maxes though

[HIPPYVALLEY]

This system has the disappointment potential of a late March storm.  

[WinterWolf]

This reminds me of last March 13th(I mean nobody is getting 30” like Dave and Ineedsnow did then, with this POS) but that one was just rain, and then white rain here when it transitioned.  Same crap airmass idea is what is bringing that one to mind. 
 

And Just like that one from last March, a coating to a half inch perhaps here would be what I think happens.  Unless the NAM has a clue, and we go isothermal, but that’s a long shot imo. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This reminds me of last March 13th(I mean nobody is getting 30” like Dave and Ineedsnow did then, with this POS) but that one was just rain, and then white rain here when it transitioned.  Same crap airmass idea is what is bringing that one to mind. 
 

And Just like that one from last March, a coating to a half inch perhaps here would be what I think happens.  Unless the NAM has a clue, and we go isothermal, but that’s a long shot imo. 

Pray for a big ole WAA thump or bust 

I think you have a decent shot for one 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

This system has the disappointment potential of a late March storm.  

Yes. That’s why I posted about last March…same feel to this one. 

[jbenedet]

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

1-4 in N ORH County?  Sell   I don't doubt the 2 areas of maxes though

Yea. I’m saying the general idea. I don’t like that for your specific area at all. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Pray for a big ole WAA thump or bust 

I think you have a decent shot for one 

Yes, significantly away from the coast here, that could be a possibility, however I’m not feeling it. I’m expecting some rain and white rain, and then let’s move on and see what other ways we can not have it snow in February  in SNE. 

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, scoob40 said:

Possibly but i don't think they're broadcast territory includes the folks up there.

Western areas of ORH county def get the Springfield channels but yeah, most of them are going to be tuning into Boston networks. 

 

 

16 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

This system has the disappointment potential of a late March storm.  

Could be tough sledding in the valley in this type of system. Though you might have enough latitude to do a lot better than the valley further south of you.