Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[Typhoon Tip]

Let that be a lesson to y'all.  Don't ever doubt the +d(PNA) --> +d(PNAP)  ... the latter is always right!

haha.   Kidding... but trying to see through an index inflection ( referring to sign flipping) ...

it's sort of like an 'probability event horizon' 

Hell... no sense being creative with the verbiage.  Synoptics 101, pattern changes are problematic for model performance.  I mean it's likely improving over the years as the tech continues to evolve and so forth - but this is substantial PNA loading event and sometimes if the shoe fits...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Two trends I suspect in the future are slower phase and more amped....with this in mind, that was a very nice run.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

A bump SE would be great 

I think you'd do better with it a bit more amped...all those CCB goods to your SW in PA would get you. OBviously don't need the low crawling into NY/LI, but a bit more N before getting shunted east would prob be more violence for W CT.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Two trends I suspect in the future are slower phase and more amped....with this in mind, that was a very nice run.

Isn’t a slower phase usually less amped on end 

Is the S stream latitude capped by the earlier N stream phase ? On this setup

[NotSureWeather]

Can always tell when there is a good run lol

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, NotSureWeather said:

Can always tell when there is a good run lol

I love when posts come in quickly

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think you'd do better with it a bit more amped...all those CCB goods to your SW in PA would get you. OBviously don't need the low crawling into NY/LI, but a bit more N before getting shunted east would prob be more violence for W CT.

True the WCB definitely dies out before us in New England .. Just tired here of the constant last minute push NW that takes us out of the goods 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Two trends I suspect in the future are slower phase and more amped....with this in mind, that was a very nice run.

I'd def want it a bit compressed right now...southern stream juicer coming out of TX/OK. I also don't want any more rain, lol.

[CoastalWx]

Further north and amped may delay a change to snow, but a nice SE track and that onshore flow at least allows for wiggle room. Which this season..one would expect I think. Aside from what happened last week lol.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I'd def want it a bit compressed right now...southern stream juicer coming out of TX/OK. I also don't want any more rain, lol.

Violently agree to the point of picking you up and shaking all the change out of your pockets.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Am I being a downer for not being overly impressed by that run? It has the shredded radar and patchy precip vibes outside of eastern PA and Plymouth county 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Violently agree to the point of picking you up and shaking all the change out of your pockets.

Do you think a 34-35 Rainer would break you at this point 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Am I being a downer for not being overly impressed by that run? It has the shredded radar and patchy precip vibes outside of eastern PA and Plymouth county 

It’s not the final solution…so it was a positive run for SNE…it’s gonna morph some more. But it’s heading in the better  direction. I think that’s the takeaway. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Well ya it's just the dying WCB and then the CCB starts so it looks funny.. But I love the look of the end/colder part of the storm .. kevins days and days 

Yea sorry. I didn’t mean to sound like you cared about the precip shield either. It looks like a mini Dec10 if everything comes together…and a big if.

[Typhoon Tip]

In case anyone's interested in some analytics instead of just rollin' eyes back in head as the drug plunges into vein ...

but.. .this shortwave below is probably what starts the 'shunting' east in the Euro and stems the translation into SNE of that NE Pa snow bomb...

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Do you think a 34-35 Rainer would break you at this point 

Things would happen.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In case anyone's interested in some analytics instead of just rollin' eyes back in head as the drug plunges into vein ...

but.. .this shortwave below is probably what starts the 'shunting' east in the Euro and stems the translation into SNE of that NE Pa snow bomb...

Is it possible that piece could ultimately phase in if the sw is more amped, slower deeper?

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Am I being a downer for not being overly impressed by that run? It has the shredded radar and patchy precip vibes outside of eastern PA and Plymouth county 

You get those vibes even when a KU is modeled though.

[Spanks45]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea sorry. I didn’t mean to sound like you cared about the precip shield either. It looks like a mini Dec10 if everything comes together…and a big if.

One huge positive right now, its start precipitating around 108 hrs.....not 150. Almost time for the Nam to start showing 40" of snow

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Do you think a 34-35 Rainer would break you at this point 

No... that's no where near as bad as a 32.3 F cat paw bomb

Total accumulation   0 . 0  0   in white rain    

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd def want it a bit compressed right now...southern stream juicer coming out of TX/OK. I also don't want any more rain, lol.

Yup.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

One huge positive right now, its start precipitating around 108 hrs.....not 150. Almost time for the Nam to start showing 40" of snow

Ha yea. I’m not buying the euro as it is.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Isn’t a slower phase usually less amped on end 

Is the S stream latitude capped by the earlier N stream phase ? On this setup

Not necessarily...it could phase more proficiently later.

[CoastalWx]

I absolutely love that 850 colder than -12 ENE flow. Definitely some movement seeing that. Lets deepen that to 700mb.

[Spanks45]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ha yea. I’m not buying the euro as it is.  

Euro has pulled the rug out here within 24 hrs, so grain of salt for now

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

One huge positive right now, its start precipitating around 108 hrs.....not 150. Almost time for the Nam to start showing 40" of snow

ya I was saying this, the first half of the storm is inside day 4 for tonights runs .. miss the days when euro day 3.5 was the truth

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

Euro has pulled the rug out here within 24 hrs, so grain of salt for now

Yes but as Tip has pointed out, there is metereological reasoning for this move.

[CoastalWx]

Actually H7 is saturated on ENE flow. 

[Ginx snewx]

Let's do this and follow it up the modeled NJ cyclogen.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Is it possible that piece could ultimately phase in if the sw is more amped, slower deeper?

yeah... I mean, the impetus there is that we're still sort of shuffling shit around in the guidance. 

If it were to get instrumental, it would have to be sped up enough to begin interacting with that S/stream a lot sooner ... like by Chicago or don't.  That's for starts.  There, it's not really interacting with the S/W space, it's acting like a kicker.

That feature was there on prior runs ... but now that our system in question is what it is, the former's influence on it becomes more noticeable.  

I'm also noticing less N/stream arctic jet intrusion as prior runs. That's also helping.  We've been dealt two blessings so far on this run.  Less of the N/stream obtruding and pushing everything out, which then allows a stronger embedded mechanical system to have fun.

I'm just saying that if we could tone it down with that follow up useless piece of shit party crasher, that would also help.