Harry Perry Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Anyone notice the 12z HRRR? Maybe I’m late to the game but… final image of the run 12z Tuesday. 980 with lowering heights directly east. Moving nearly ENE through central Missouri into south central Illinois. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Ez toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 And UKMET, if you want to hold out hope. I'm definitely less optimistic for this area but still going to give some time. Also, unlike some other misses in the past, we'll get in on the front end thump of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Regardless of the exact outcome snow wise, this storm is a big win for the medium-long range guidance. The general idea of a deepening SLP track toward the western Great Lakes has been locked in at a well above average lead time. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12z euro starting the 24 hour trend to shift this puppy back SE 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, Harry Perry said: Anyone notice the 12z HRRR? Maybe I’m late to the game but… final image of the run 12z Tuesday. 980 with lowering heights directly east. Moving nearly ENE through central Missouri into south central Illinois. Euro suddenly onboard with that idea as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: Ride it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12z euro much improved for I-80 north in IL. Much better E-W spread 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Euro has officially put me in bullseye territory in the upper 1/3rd of Boone County, IL. Which means it’ll shift somewhere in the next 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Wonder when the models will pick up on the dynamic cooling? What is preventing this from moving SE again all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 IWX is calling for 3-5" for MBY on Monday night with the front end dump, just to get washed away after sunrise. Talk about a stat padder. Several inches of snow that will not be enjoyed. Oh, we might get a consolation prize with the backwash. It would be nice to lay even a coating to enjoy and perhaps help in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 26 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: 12z euro much improved for I-80 north in IL. Much better E-W spread CMC also has this general outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Wonder when the models will pick up on the dynamic cooling? What is preventing this from moving SE again all?Why wouldn’t you expect it to trend NW over time? It’s a strong, deepening low that wants to go poleward. The sampling that has been done IMO has allowed the models to produce a more realistic solution. I’m still concerned about the dry air intrusion in that second window, would not be shocked at all to see QPF impacted from the possible MDT risk event occurring in the Gulf Coast region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, nwohweather said: Why wouldn’t you expect it to trend NW over time? It’s a strong, deepening low that wants to go poleward. The sampling that has been done IMO has allowed the models to produce a more realistic solution. I’m still concerned about the dry air intrusion in that second window, would not be shocked at all to see QPF impacted from the possible MDT risk event occurring in the Gulf Coast region Not saying that wont happen, what if the cold is underdone? Anyways that does not answer my question, forgive me but what factors should prevent a SE shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 GOOD LUCK you guys. Enjoy this system. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 9 minutes ago, Owensnow said: Not saying that wont happen, what if the cold is underdone? Anyways that does not answer my question, forgive me but what factors should prevent a SE shift? A slightly faster and weaker/flatter solution would tend to shift it back SE. But it would be a weaker system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman33 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Something that has been discussed in the past for different storms - could convection in the warm sector lead to a more suppressed solution? SPC has an enhanced risk for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 58 minutes ago, mimillman said: 12z euro starting the 24 hour trend to shift this puppy back SE 12z EPS similar. 3 runs in a row of this and we’re back in the game 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: A slightly faster and weaker/flatter solution would tend to shift it back SE. But it would be a weaker system it's everyone for themselves. Do you want a amped 3"or a flat 6". I know where I stand. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 it's everyone for themselves. Do you want a amped 3"or a flat 6". I know where I stand.Easy to forget because we've been tracking so long, but a SLP pressure in the 980s is plenty strong for this area. If low-mid 980s means more snow for more of the metro, easy choice. Need the track to not be hard NNE from near STL to keep the dry slot and warmer temps aloft farther southeast. A slightly weaker system would help with that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Easy to forget because we've been tracking so long, but a SLP pressure in the 980s is plenty strong for this area. If low-mid 980s means more snow for more of the metro, easy choice. Need the track to not be hard NNE from near STL to keep the dry slot and warmer temps aloft farther southeast. A slightly weaker system would help with that. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Gfs had it move due north for 3 hours.. That seems hard to imagine..no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Easy to forget because we've been tracking so long, but a SLP pressure in the 980s is plenty strong for this area. If low-mid 980s means more snow for more of the metro, easy choice. Need the track to not be hard NNE from near STL to keep the dry slot and warmer temps aloft farther southeast. A slightly weaker system would help with that. Bingo. It’s one thing that really jumps off the page to me with the guidance thru hour 144, these are some rather impressive SLP’s from a pure barometric standpoint. What I’m curious about is why are we seeing such strength? Typically we see 995ish storms with 6-10” in its strongest swath, not very deep cyclones 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 this is the most snow that any short-term forecast has had for my house since last winter. Of course, there's going to be the warm advection with a chance of wet snow, ice, and rain with a warmup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 18z HRRR Kuchera snow map and precip plot at the end of the run (Noon Tuesday): 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 MB from Janesville to Madison, that is quite a gradient. Winds will be cranking with this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 MKX just came out with their Winter Storm Watches and they have decently strong wording all things considered. In fact, with those totals and gusts I wonder if we don't see the B word come out at some point. Some of the open areas are going to be pretty close to that threshold I think on Tuesday. (If you saw this on the other thread, no you didn't) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 The warm lake really spoiling this one for me. Guess I’ll need to drive a few miles inland to build my snow fort. For the winners of this one, enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imneversatisfied Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Lastest ECMWF SE shift puts me back into the best snows. Still worried about wind off the lake creating p type issues. Let's see if the next GFS run follows suit. As for slp, pretty remarkable how consistent models have been for a sub 980mb low in the great lakes region for over a week. Now the show really begins. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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