Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My area and just N looks good relative to lower terrain, but I agree with Kevin....hills will do better.

Jack will be somewhere in eastern ORH hills or southeastern monads. But you’re in a great spot for the low terrain jackpot. I don’t hate my spot either…a little bit of elevation and east enough to hopefully get some Sunday afternoon goodies. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

BUFKIT is cold at BOS. PITA call. 

BOS is pretty cold at 925-950….it gets warmer down near PYM but BOS latitude might save them from white rain…it will still be pretty slushy but slushy paste beats white rain. 

[8611Blizz]

Whenever I think of Scooter at work this scene comes to mind

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

BOS is pretty cold at 925-950….it gets warmer down near PYM but BOS latitude might save them from white rain…it will still be pretty slushy but slushy paste beats white rain. 

Even at PYM it's snow, albeit like 34ish for awhile.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 8611Blizz said:

Whenever I think of Scooter at work this scene comes to mind

 

I don't do the forecasting like I did a few years ago now, but I used to always quote that movie!   

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had the exact, same peak settled depth. It was absurd that they tossed it.

They would have kept if you were in Lunenburg and said 38”.

55 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Totals cut back from 6z but still a good hit on Kuchie and 10:1

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

I still don’t know which of these I should look at.  When do you use one vs the other?

question for tomorrow is whether we get a Messenger Shuffle or some Jeff Jumps.

 

[Greg]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

 

I still don’t know which of these I should look at.  When do you use one vs the other?

question for tomorrow is whether we get a Messenger Shuffle or some Jeff Jumps.

 

Kuchera is usually the most exaggerated/amped vs the 10:1 ratio output.

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

I still don’t know which of these I should look at.  When do you use one vs the other?

question for tomorrow is whether we get a Messenger Shuffle or some Jeff Jumps.

 

I miss the Messenger Shuffle - wish we still had those but maybe models are too good now.  Or maybe they occur more when the confluence press is strengthening, rather than waning. 

I feel like any jumps now are typically just noise, and wobble back after a couple cycles. 

[Greg]

2 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I miss the Messenger Shuffle - wish we still had those but maybe models are too good now. 

I feel like any jumps now are typically just noise, and wobble back after a couple cycles. 

All these wobbles are not just noise. They can translate to relatively large differences on the ground.

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I miss the Messenger Shuffle - wish we still had those but maybe models are too good now.  Or maybe they occur more when the confluence press is strengthening, rather than waning. 

I feel like any jumps now are typically just noise, and wobble back after a couple cycles. 

Still happens.  They’re real and they’re spectacular.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I miss the Messenger Shuffle - wish we still had those but maybe models are too good now.  Or maybe they occur more when the confluence press is strengthening, rather than waning. 

I feel like any jumps now are typically just noise, and wobble back after a couple cycles. 

Those are last 24 hrs and they are ticks E / ENE on phases 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

Still happens.  They’re real and they’re spectacular.

I kind of expect it late tbh

[radarman]

yep, those are for nowcast time

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Those are last 24 hrs and they are ticks E / ENE on phases 

Might get one in this storm too. We watch…it does have implications for Sunday afternoon especially. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Might get one in this storm too. We watch…it does have implications for Sunday afternoon especially. 

Sure does 

12z eps has a few more really tucked members compared to 0z (for 18z Sunday )

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Might get one in this storm too. We watch…it does have implications for Sunday afternoon especially. 

That and earlier/later intensification are the two things I’m watching at this point.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

That and earlier/later intensification are the two things I’m watching at this point.

Big implications here too. The models got that CCB cranking in time here at 12z, let’s see if it holds later.

thats going to be the difference between 2-3” of slop or 8-9” of paste.

[CT Rain]

Bulk of our snow here is going to be Saturday evening through like 1a/2a Sunday. Going to catch some people off guard as I was really hammering around or just before daybreak Sunday. 

[Greg]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Big implications here too. The models got that CCB cranking in time here at 12z, let’s see if it holds later.

thats going to be the difference between 2-3” of slop or 8-9” of paste.

For you, an earlier phase and slightly south track will give you a definitely better result. As stated, 2-3 inches of pure glop or 7-8 inches of heavy wet snow.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Bulk of our snow here is going to be Saturday evening through like 1a/2a Sunday. Going to catch some people off guard as I was really hammering around or just before daybreak Sunday. 

Some people on a hill in CT were thinking days and days of snow 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Some people on a hill in CT were thinking days and days of snow 

It will be snowing at least east of the river all day Sunday . Might be light, but it will be snowing. And if we catch the CCB the heavier stuff will extend into the morning hours 

[weatherwiz]

Finally made a forecast

https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2024/01/sunday-january-7-2024-southern-new.html

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It will be snowing at least east of the river all day Sunday . Might be light, but it will be snowing. And if we catch the CCB the heavier stuff will extend into the morning hours 

That sounds reasonable 

[mahk_webstah]

24 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

They would have kept if you were in Lunenburg and said 38”.

I still don’t know which of these I should look at.  When do you use one vs the other?

question for tomorrow is whether we get a Messenger Shuffle or some Jeff Jumps.

 

Jeff Jumps!  Excellent new phrase

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Finally made a forecast

https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2024/01/sunday-january-7-2024-southern-new.html

I like it

Matches WPC very closely 

did you look at them 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I like it

Matches WPC very closely 

did you look at them 

I did not! 

I did spend a good deal of time though with eastern/northeastern MA. going to be a tight gradient 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I did not! 

I did spend a good deal of time though with eastern/northeastern MA. going to be a tight gradient 

Should hit on power outages in your write up 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Should hit on power outages in your write up 

I did mention isolated power outages are possible 

[Damage In Tolland]

We warn 

[Damage In Tolland]

New HRRR quite a bit colder and south .That earlier run was abysmal