Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[George001]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’d weight 70% gfs and 30%. Euro is easily the most amped, so have to keep that in mind.

2-4” maybe a bit more for colder areas 

Canadian is a good compromise between Euro and gfs. 6-10 inches for us, which I would be very happy with.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Don’t think he will this time. 

You know he will grab a 40-spot in a few weeks while I choke on sand.

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I think we need a sacrifice .. Let's all vote on sacrificing one member off the board for the 00z euro to verify I think we can make that it happen. 

Is anyone here a virgin?

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Is anyone here a virgin?

On a weather forum? You maybe able to find a few....

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z euro op looked like it could be interesting if one extrapolates. 
 

 

Moreso then 0z.

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You know he will grab a 40-spot in a few weeks while I choke on sand.

Been almost two years since I grabbed a 4 spot lol. 

[ORH_wxman]

I crashed early last night but it seems like we’re sort of stabilized on the trends. Still a good amount of variance though. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Been almost two years since I grabbed a 4 spot lol. 

As much as I bitch about my locale, it was nice avoiding a total catastrophe last season.....there is some value in that higher floor, I guess.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Good to see this bounce back to something more potent but we’ll probably yo-yo for another day or two. Stay the course.

[CoastalWx]

Good storm 10 years ago. Maybe we can grab some decadal juju.

[Typhoon Tip]

Anyway, the original ideas for this event are still largely in tact - to me...

This appears to be a middling event with ceiling somewhere in moderate amounts ( snow).  There may be some subjectivity as to what others feel or want to mean moderate, but less than 10" and > than 4".  Should this modulate less(more) in the more certain frames through tomorrow, we cross that bridge.

The factors of attenuation were several going into this thing.  Whichever is actually causing it to realize thus far, assimilation lapses/speed saturation in the flow/destructive interference aside, we are seeing some of that unfold before our very eyes. The last day and half of runs are taking us through that downward ride.  Maybe things have stabilized with these recent UK and Euro type runs in a tentative alliance as of this morning and in fact ...heh.  I don't really have a problem with that interpretation for now. 

I would still caution that we may get significance added back, or taken away further, during these next 3 model cycles today - particularly the 00z run this evening.  

I will say ...there is some 20 or 30% chance this minors out to the point where it becomes an issue determining what is really causing matters to take place.  If the lead S/W runs thin ... yet the spacing shortens with a stronger 2nd, we may burst open an envelopment of lighter regional snows of 1-3" or spot 5" over a span of time anyway.   There's also a reasonably good chance that we get something back from the first ... I told John the other day this was going to be a pain in the ass event to track and that much appears to be the best forecast for this f'n thing yet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Anyway, the original ideas for this event are still largely in tact - to me...

This appears to be a middling event with ceiling somewhere in moderate amounts ( snow).  There may be some subjectivity as to what others feel or want to mean moderate, but less than 10" and > than 4". 

The factors of attenuation were several going into this thing.  Whichever is actually causing it to realize thus far, assimilation lapses/speed saturation in the flow/destructive interference aside, we are seeing some of that unfold before our very eyes. The last day and half of runs are taking us through that downward ride.  Maybe things have stabilized with these recent UK and Euro type runs in a tentative alliance as of this morning and in fact ...heh.  I don't really have a problem with that interpretation for now. 

I would still caution that we may get significance added back, or taken away further, during these next 3 model cycles today - particularly the 00z run this evening.  

I will say ...there is some 20 or 30% chance this minors out to the point where it becomes an issue determining what is really causing matters to take place.  If the lead S/W runs thing ... yet the spacing shortens with a stronger 2nd, we may burst open an envelopment of lighter regional snows of 1-3" or spot 5" over a span of time anyway.   There's also a reasonably good chance that we get something back from the first ... I told John the other day this was going to be a pain in the ass event to track and that much appears to be the best forecast for this f'n thing yet.

Self-dialogue? 

[ORH_wxman]

06z EPS maybe looks like it has a better cluster NW than 00z? Not sure what mean QPF looks like yet, but the SLP looks slightly better. No huge changes though.

[CoastalWx]

6z EPS juiced up a tad. 

[ORH_wxman]

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Self-dialogue? 

what ?

[CoastalWx]

Let’s get that 978 east of ACK

[The Graupler]

We can all agree that it’s certainly January 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, The Graupler said:

We can all agree that it’s certainly January 

This storm is making quite a heel turn. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, The Graupler said:

We can all agree that it’s certainly January 

 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

This storm is making quite a heel turn. 

I've wrestled with this idea too.

[Prismshine Productions]

Subtle differences at h5 when comparing hr84 on the 6z EURO vs hr90 on 0z but still factors that need to be watched:

The leading shortwave is a little more consolidated to the north of 0z (Ohio/KY border vs cntrl Tenn.) and the trailer did not dig as much over the 4 corners

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Self-dialogue? 

OH  ha... you mean "John"  ?

I thought you guys knew each other's names but FXWX poster's name is John

man I was staring at that trying to figure out what the f you meant by that.  Truth be told though ... sometimes it does feel one is speaking to an empty room.

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

You're exactly right. He actually just had the euro map up from last night. Although he did say there's some model differences, he seems to favor the euro. I also watched Gil Simmons from WTNH with a video on social medi that he just put out 25 minutes ago. He also is favoring the euro as well. Mentioning that there is a wide range of snow totals but he thinks this is looking like a plowable event. 

 

It seemed like it, although I don't have much trust in the Euro anymore.  It used to be King... now it's just a tool like the NAM

[HoarfrostHubb]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Good storm 10 years ago. Maybe we can grab some decadal juju.

2015 was bad?

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

It seemed like it, although I don't have much trust in the Euro anymore.  It used to be King... now it's just a tool like the NAM

Ride a horse boys and girls. The patience us Grasshoppers have had will pay off 6Z Euro lock it up.

[Ginx snewx]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z EPS maybe looks like it has a better cluster NW than 00z? Not sure what mean QPF looks like yet, but the SLP looks slightly better. No huge changes though.

 

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z EPS juiced up a tad. 

 

[Chrisrotary12]

Euro vs the world.... what could go wrong?

[mahk_webstah]

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Been almost two years since I grabbed a 4 spot lol. 

You must be the virgin

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Euro vs the world.... what could go wrong?

Ukie was pretty close to Euro....a little south but big QPF up to about BOS-HFD

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie was pretty close to Euro....a little south but big QPF up to about BOS-HFD

Two little things to remember -

this dips S (total manifold) before lifting up.  Climo on that is typically a wetter system.  Not sure how that aspect plays into this, but that seems like there's room there to speculate. 

the other aspect is that S system tracks tend to inch N when climbing up a flow slope like this scenario appears to be.