Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.


Typhoon Tip
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, Winter Wizard said:

Confluence is a bit weaker this run, I expect a tick back to the north. 

Yeah, in addition to slight ( but crucially) deeper lead S/W, there's a better S/W ridging rolling out ahead. That should left the axis N in concert with what you're seeing there -

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, in addition to slight ( but crucially) deeper lead S/W, there's a better S/W ridging rolling out ahead. That should left the axis N in concert with what you're seeing there -

Yep, exactly, all of those pieces are working in tandem which makes this complex. Putting it together, I think these are subtle but noticeable improvements across the board for most in this subforum. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

TT clowns through 96 have 2 jackpot zones.  S RI and N ORH county over into Middlesex county

 

I mentioned something similar I think yesterday, but I could see two jackpot areas in this. I was thinking something like just north of the sfc/850 low and then maybe something else with the 700 warm front. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's the re-invigoration Sunday PM on the GFS as the trailer catches up....some nice bands redevelop over much of SNE.

I can picture a freakout Sunday because the radar is looking bleak then all of a sudden we see a re-blossom of the precip as the trailing s/w makes its way in the picture. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z GGEM is poundtown with the lead shortwave....crushes CT over to SE MA...but all of SNE gets good snow.

Hasn't the GGEM been the most reticent to losing this thing all along?  seems that way - but I only see that model at 12z and 00z.  Last night's 00z was only S of the 12z yesterday but was still a more potent low response.   i dunno

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Recent GFS outputs seem to have some substantial convective interference with the SLP track as it traverses southern AL, MS and GA.

I don’t see any other guidance with the SLP being pulled so far south by convection.

EDIT: Looking into this, seems to first surface at the 18Z run yesterday

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...