January 2024 -- Discussion

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Could also be a bunch of 1-3/2-4” events starting Saturday . We just don’t know 

I hedge bigger and sporadic then smaller and frequent. 

[Typhoon Tip]

From what I’m seeing the EPS is your best hope ens mean through Jan 10. 

The other two aren’t horrible per se but the EPS is in a different implication space -

It carries the -EPO and appears to even resurge the block during the first week … and has established the continental loading conveyor.  Cold look given time. 

The operational version wants a more consolidated jet downstream of the EPO which causes the jet to stay west. The behavior of the EPS suggests split flow however as PAC wave space (quite impressive for this range actually) gets injected underneath the Alaskan sector. Meanwhile… running over top the northern branch of the split downstream would probably keep it colder from the Great Lakes to New England compared to the operational version which would have a flat ridge there.

I mentioned the way to combat the  -EPO warm pulse through the east is to bifurcate the streams - it’s interesting that EPS structures that way but the op goes a less split direction. For winter enthusiast the upshot of these differences is that of the two the EPS is likely to be more accurate beyond day 7. Kind of goes without saying really… I would be surprised if the euro op looked the same on the next run.

[Typhoon Tip]

It’s interesting in that day 8 to 13 range how different the flavor of the GEFs are to the EPS.  It’ll be interesting to see which side caves.  

[ORH_wxman]

55 minutes ago, BRSno said:

Just be thankful you’re not a South Florida weenie. forever chasing something that will never ever arrive. 

40s as lows for NYE is about as much as I could ask for. 

Left Eastie in summer 2019 and have not yet recovered. I will die on the “Deer Island isn’t a suitable measuring spot” hill. 
 

I flew up last weekend hoping maybe I’d get some now. Had my flight canceled due to rain on Monday (12/18) 

Oh yeah I remember you posting here in some of the greats. Didn’t realize you moved to FL. Gonna have to do a weenie storm chase when you get a chance. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, BRSno said:

Just be thankful you’re not a South Florida weenie. forever chasing something that will never ever arrive. 

40s as lows for NYE is about as much as I could ask for. 

Left Eastie in summer 2019 and have not yet recovered. I will die on the “Deer Island isn’t a suitable measuring spot” hill. 
 

I flew up last weekend hoping maybe I’d get some now. Had my flight canceled due to rain on Monday (12/18) 

Enjoy S FL

Take up pickle ball if your on Naples side or enjoy the beaches and scenery on SE side 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Who said the 20th? Steve? Didn’t many say the week after Christmas is when things start to change?

 

I will admit December has been uglier than I imagined and I did not imagine a good month. 

I said beyond the 20th for the best this season has to offer. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Early in the December thread the date was December 20. We punt.

 

3 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup. Goalposts be moving 

No. The only can kicking was the improved Pacific from mid December to early January. However, the big blocking and most favorable stretch has always been pegged for later January and February. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

December was worse than I thought, but absolutely nothing has changed about my thoughts for the rest of the season.

Zero....confidence is high.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Maybe we somehow eat a cosmic dildo again this season (doubt it), but that can't be foreseen.

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This could be a season of a couple large events but otherwise nada. 

that's perfect <3

[Torch Tiger]

Vibes with the narrative too

[Snowcrazed71]

43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s interesting in that day 8 to 13 range how different the flavor of the GEFs are to the EPS.  It’ll be interesting to see which side caves

It seems every time one model shows something good happening two weeks out and the other shows it not so good. The good model caves to the bad outcome. We have yet to see a bad outcome cave for a good outcome.... Emphasize " yet "

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

Vibes with the narrative too

I could see that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

It seems every time one model shows something good happening two weeks out and the other shows it not so good. The good model caves to the bad outcome. We have yet to see a bad outcome cave for a good outcome.... Emphasize " yet "

I like the GEFS better for early January.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

that's perfect <3

Yup…especially after wasting two months.  

[kazimirkai]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Who said the 20th? Steve? Didn’t many say the week after Christmas is when things start to change?

 

I will admit December has been uglier than I imagined and I did not imagine a good month. 

I mean there was no snow but it really wasn't absurdly warm for most of the month. A few days ago I clocked about 10 degrees which is a pretty run of the mill minimum low for December. I guess these days I really don't expect winter to arrive until January so I wasn't disappointed much, especially given the euro's unambitious outlook early-on.

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup…especially after wasting two months.  

what two? lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, kazimirkai said:

I mean there was no snow but it really wasn't absurdly warm for most of the month. A few days ago I clocked about 10 degrees which is a pretty run of the mill minimum low for December. I guess these days I really don't expect winter to arrive until January so I wasn't disappointed much, especially given the euro's unambitious outlook early-on.

I think December will be like +5 for us....I expected +1 to +3.

[Torch Tiger]

Sorry posted a few things that were no good.  <3     Hope you snow

[#NoPoles]

Was it around 1989/1990 that we had no snow all the way into Canada? My brother is 6 years older than me and he had a school ski trip to some place in Canada and there was no snow- just warm temps rain and muddy conditions. If it was his senior year it would have been 89/90. I feel like we are repeating that.

[#NoPoles]

From Attitash regarding the opening of their new high-speed quad: "The Mountaineer is operational and ready to ride. However, due to the extensive rain and warm temperatures, our trails off the summit will not be ready for this holiday break. We will be pushing back our Cheers to the Mountaineer celebration."

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

26 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

what two? lol

If we don’t get going in early Jan and the can gets kicked to late month.

[H2Otown_WX]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If we don’t get going in early Jan and the can gets kicked to late month.

Might as well kick it to '24-'25 at this point

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Might as well kick it to '24-'25 at this point

 

[MJO812]

Better looking 0z Runs so far

[weathafella]

I think for future winters I’m ok rolling with la nada.

[RDRY]

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Better looking 0z Runs so far

21,240 minutes to lock it in.

[78Blizzard]

53 minutes ago, RDRY said:

21,240 minutes to lock it in.

Nice eye candy,  I wonder when was the last time a 14 day prog with a winter hurricane verified, lol.  25 mb drop in 12 hours is some serious bombogenesis.

[kazimirkai]

1 hour ago, RDRY said:

21,240 minutes to lock it in.

Funny snowfall map. Storm takes one look at New York and goes "nah"

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, kazimirkai said:

Funny snowfall map. Storm takes one look at New York and goes "nah"

Maybe she'd already been there and they are buried under two to three feet with scattered flurries and tons of blowing and drifting snow