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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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Compare BOS to MSP for the upcoming stretch. You can see at least three windows at BOS where QPF is clustered closer in timing (that signal at 300+ hours is actually pretty strong given the natural increasing uncertainty at that forecast range). If you squint at MSP you can see maybe one window of tighter clustering in time. 

You can also see the whiff potential in the BOS plot. Those gaps of no QPF in the first window show members that are fish storms. Of course this is just QPF, so a cutter can still have a great signal but a poor result for the weenies.

gfs-ensemble-all-KBOS-indiv_qpf_24-40024gfs-ensemble-all-KMSP-indiv_qpf_24-40024

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26 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I would actually say the signal may be even stronger for 1/10.

Ensembles for BOS are pretty tight clustering in timing for 1/7 and 1/10, lesser so for the next one after that. But it's definitely a strong QPF signal for an active stretch. 

Usually those 24 hr QPF meteograms look like a shotgun spray, but these all have well defined windows for QPF, which is a higher confidence signal.

What I suspect is going on here in driving the current sensitivity is a bit theoretically challenging ... But, the numerical telecon say no way on siggy storms E of 90 W.  We really should be seeing the evolution of a 'thaw' climo/ridge. 

I think what's happening is a compensating for the former, by surplus speed of the flow.  It's mechanically stretching the -PNA configuration causing an exceptionally broad ( 'REAL') Rossby wave length.  So broad that it almost "clicks" the mode around.

 

image.png.b335d6c496c41228342e0df1c3ac00c0.png

 

That's typically a very unstable wave length.  I believe if the flow were to ease off the throttle, the wave length shortens a little and the actual N/A pattern structure would then look more -PNA correlative.  You don't typically have positive geopotential height anomalies NE of Hawaii and have negative height nadir so deep through the Lakes region - that's out of phase. 

I guess I am saying all this because, these storms are not really supported by theoretical spatial/synoptic meteorology, rather appear to made from the idiosyncratic nature of that unusual flow structure above. It doesn't lend to confidence in general. 

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

“Ignoring”. Not the right choice of words chief.

You lazy guys just need your daily dose of model crack to get through the day. 
 

Hope springs eternal.

It wasn’t my words..it was the other “chief Bretts” words. If you bothered to look at the post I quoted, you’d know that. Go ride your motorcycle. 

  • Haha 2
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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Just can't amplify the trough soon enough, The rug pull could be painful going forward.

I really want something to just crush the mountains , but we wait and watch and as I said to iceberg the Melts will be Jerry springer like for some if there is a relaxation period after this . I never bought into the 5’th , but maybe it can amp itself silly in next 36 hrs 

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I really want something to just crush the mountains , but we wait and watch and as I said to iceberg the Melts will be Jerry springer like for some if there is a relaxation period after this 

Two days ago(Friday) the whole month of January was gone according to some. We track. 

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I really want something to just crush the mountains , but we wait and watch and as I said to iceberg the Melts will be Jerry springer like for some if there is a relaxation period after this . I never bought into the 5’th , but maybe it can amp itself silly in next 36 hrs 

Thats where my focus is, Up and in, Really don't care about my BY, I don't ride here anymore so just need it in the mountains and Northern Maine to cash in.

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