MANDA Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 I’m rooting for my weather app! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Euro has shifted to the gfs for Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Snowing at 150 like the gfs for the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Nice look on the euro for Tuesday. Just another possibility 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Pretty confident that the record at CPK will end by the end of the month. Whether it be next Tue or sometime shortly after. The cold appears to finally be coming back for real. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nice look on the euro for Tuesday. Just another possibility Euro and GFS more or less agree now - just have to get the ensembles of both on board..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nice look on the euro for Tuesday. Just another possibility Only 6 days to go (lol) but I like the potential here. Hopefully we can get an all snow event for a change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 That's a big difference. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 nice to see some consensus amongst models within the week window. 0z runs will be important. and hopefully it holds 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 I’m going to wait to get excited until after the next cutter of doom passes and the models continue to hold a decent look for this. Regardless, nice to see the models able to form this out of the ether once again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 the 20th is seriously legit. you have every single synoptic piece here: decaying WB -NAO Arctic antecedent airmass huge 50/50 ULL transient PNA spike from the diving GoAk LP amplifying vort upstream this period has been showing up on ensembles and now OP runs are beginning to sniff it out. large storms often follow decaying WB -NAOs, so this is definitely a period of high interest 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Euro very close on the 20th to a big one. Lots of potential 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 We pray 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 1 minute ago, bluewave said: I can’t remember the last time we saw the models correct SE day 8 to 6. It’s usually been the other way around. Must be the difficulty with the retrograding block. We have had some big model shifts even into the short term with past retrograding block. So I wouldn’t be surprised if we continue to see shifts one way or the other in future runs. Haven’t had a pattern like this in a very long time… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 1 minute ago, bluewave said: I wouldn’t mind it if this first system sheared out and left more room for one of the waves behind it to swing for the fences with the developing -NAO +PNA. Can’t say I disagree, just hopeful we get something. If nyc doesn’t get at least a inch next week from that type of look I will call this hobby quits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 EPS very bullish for the 17th with a 4-5 inch mean 996 over the BM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 About damn time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 3.41" - Pump ran and did its job. Did not lose power so generator did not kick in to save the day. Pump does not run frequently here. Except for Ida rains it rarely ran in the 5 years prior. Lately has been running much more frequently.Mine has run thricely in past six months, (twice in three weeks) after not running in over five years. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Rare case we want the GEFS to be right Day 14-16...the GEPS is brutal...the GEFS you can see that if you rolled it forward the PV would drop south, the SER would probably move east and we'd be back into the same pattern we have D9-10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 30 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Haven’t had a pattern like this in a very long time… Probably haven’t seen a pattern like this since March, 2018. If we don’t get anything from 16/17 or 19/20 it would be shocking, assuming that depicted setup is correct. IMO we do need to get something by 1/21 though, because I do think the pattern gets hostile after that given the MJO wave progression 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Probably haven’t seen a pattern like this since March, 2018. If we don’t get anything from 16/17 or 19/20 it would be shocking, assuming that depicted setup is correct. IMO we do need to get something by 1/21 though, because I do think the pattern gets hostile after that given the MJO wave progression I think next week makes or breaks this winter. If we get nothing, I think outside one event in February it’s probably not going to be a decent winter 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 i do want to stress that caution needs to be exercised, but it's worth noting that the advertised pattern evolution on the EPS is reminiscent of some of NYC's largest storms. this isn't to say that we're going to get one or anything like that... just trying to show the potential that these west-based blocking patterns do have when timed up with a PNA spike out west and established Arctic air the similarities are uncanny 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 just to be clear, I am not advertising a KU at 10 days out lmao. want to make that very clear however, it's becoming evident that the pattern progression holds high end potential as it breaks down. this is often the case, and it holds historical precedent 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 The closest thing I recall where 2 massive cutters happened and a few days later that was snow was probably 2/2/96, there were 2 huge cutters between 1/20-1/27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 @bluewave end of the eps definitely showing the warmth from p4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Eps looks great for next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The closest thing I recall where 2 massive cutters happened and a few days later that was snow was probably 2/2/96, there were 2 huge cutters between 1/20-1/27 After the Mother of all snowstorms a few weeks prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave end of the eps definitely showing the warmth from p4 The EPS and GEPS get very ugly after 1/21. I agree with you that something needs to happen by 1/20. If it doesn’t, to expect some miracle, storybook finish in February would be an extremely tall order. Again, assuming next week’s setup is correct, to get nothing out of that would be quite a shock but I guess stranger things have happened 1 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 The EPS and GEPS get very ugly after 1/21. I agree with you that something needs to happen by 1/20. If it doesn’t, to expect some miracle, storybook finish in February would be an extremely tall order. Again, assuming next week’s setup is correct, to get nothing out of that would be quite a shock but I guess stranger things have happenedLet’s just get through the next ten days before you start getting excited for warmth again. (Not saying you’re wrong, just one thing at a time). 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now