Atomixwx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It's also recycled data and should be tossed Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I do not have the 6Z but with the max out in the elevations, that looks more like temp issues. The 6z Euro only goes out to 90 hours. The heart of the storm would take place in the next 6 to 12 hours after the run ends. It looks plenty juiced. Here is how it ends at 90 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: The 6z Euro only goes out to 90 hours. The heart of the storm would take place in the next 6 to 12 hours after the run ends. It looks plenty juiced. Here is how it ends at 90 hours. The low is still in NC when then 90 hour run ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I do not have the 6Z but with the max out in the elevations, that looks more like temp issues. Time to start panicking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Time to start panicking? See above…. Run ends at 90 hours. The storm is just getting underway in The Susquehanna Valley! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 See above…. Run ends at 90 hours. The storm is just getting underway in The Susquehanna Valley!I always forget that about the 6z and 18z. Still looks warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 6z Euro only goes out to 90 hours. The heart of the storm would take place in the next 6 to 12 hours after the run ends. It looks plenty juiced. Here is how it ends at 90 hours. That is sleet and freezing rain over a large area of Adams and Franklin. No bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Bubbler86 said: That is sleet and freezing rain over a large area of Adams and Franklin. No bueno. When the low gets towards the DelMarVa, I think most of CTP will be good for snow. I just want a juiced system that doesn’t cut & we should be good for snow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: When the low gets towards the DelMarVa, I think most of CTP will be good for snow. I just want a juiced system that doesn’t cut & we should be good for snow. I saw a map in the MA that showed rain in the LSV at hour 90. But one thing we can ascertain...the Euro and GFS are quite a bit apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Blend the Euro, GFS, Canadian & ICON & most of CTP should be in store for a Warning level event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 A cold morning got down to 22.5 overnight here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 A frosty start to our morning across the county. Lows have ranged from as low as 21.1 in Warwick Twp. to as high as 27.9 in Atglen. The next couple of days should continue to be seasonably cold with highs near 40 degrees in most spots. We turn colder on Friday and Saturday with temps struggling to get much above the low 30's. Today marks the 662nd straight day (since March 12, 2022) that we will fail to record 1.0" of snow this breaks the old record of 661 days from February 24, 1972 till December 16, 1973. Of note during that time back in 1972-73 we measured no snow at all. That record will remain in place as we have actually recorded 9 days during this time frame with measurable snow of greater than 0.2". We only went 278 days between measurable snow here in East Nantmeal from March 12, 2022 till December 15, 2022 - when we recorded 0.5" of snow. However, it does look increasingly likely that we will record at least 1" of snow on Saturday the 6th. In fact the NWS at PHL/Mount Holly has placed Western Chester County in the zone of best chance for accumulating snow. This is still not a forecast so stay tuned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I don’t trust temps. At all. Been burned over and over and over and over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I saw a map in the MA that showed rain in the LSV at hour 90. But one thing we can ascertain...the Euro and GFS are quite a bit apart. Let's hope the 6z euro is just off on a tangent and incorrect. That would be a disappointing outcome for places along the M/D line. Kind of surprised after the great 00z runs last night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Let's hope the 6z euro is just off on a tangent and incorrect. That would be a disappointing outcome for places along the M/D line. Kind of surprised after the great 00z runs last night It is uncanny how up and down the tracking has been on this one. It seems every 12 hours we have one suite threatening a little snow/a sunny day on Saturday and another driving a low too far north. Goes to show how hard trying to put a forecast out is...the interactions are too complicated to pin down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It is uncanny how up and down the tracking has been on this one. It seems every 12 hours we have one suite threatening a little snow/a sunny day on Saturday and another driving a low too far north. Goes to show how hard trying to put a forecast out is...the interactions are too complicated to pin down. Blizz shared the EURO it only goes out to 90 after that it dumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6z EPS looks good for CTP 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 That is sleet and freezing rain over a large area of Adams and Franklin. No bueno. You will notice the start time is also pushed back now into the evening, which is good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, paweather said: Blizz shared the EURO it only goes out to 90 after that it dumps. But the 6Z Euro is warm. At hour 90, some of the LSV is mixed. Nothing like the GFS which is my point of the gyrations with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 6z EPS looks good for CTP Not sure the doom and gloom is warranted based on the EPS. I think it’s a little deceiving having the OP end at 90. The heaviest precip wasn’t here yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: But the 6Z Euro is warm. At hour 90, some of the LSV is mixed. Nothing like the GFS which is my point of the gyrations with the models. Understood for the heart of the LSV we are good. But yes some mixing SE for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Low of 26 here. Lancaster continues to appear to be in a great spot for the upcoming storm, almost too good ha. I continue to like the idea of an area-wide 4-8”. Things are getting clearer. By 12z tomorrow we should be full-go. After parsing over overnighters, my loins are starting to feel something as well..... Just remember, that guy from MU said no snow till mid late month or early Feb, so none of this really counts, so is all bonus stat padder kinda stuff. Hehe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said: From your fiends ss: SS Storm Chase And Forecast Team - Mid Atlantic LLC Favorites · 30m · TODAY IS WEDNESDAY 1-3-2024 FORECAST ISSUED AT: 6:45 AM SNOW AMOUNTS OF 10-15” ARE BEGINNING TO LOOK PROMISING lol I cant believe anyone still follows them after the debacle they had some time ago. Guess memory is short term for some, or if you keep throwin enough crap at the wall, some still sticks. you are settin pretty for this one pal. Try to enjoy it, and we look forward to some awesome pics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 55 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Time to start panicking? Some never stop.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 52 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: When the low gets towards the DelMarVa, I think most of CTP will be good for snow. I just want a juiced system that doesn’t cut & we should be good for snow. looking over Euro 850's there is a warm punch on the MD line on 6z where it was 50-75 miles further south on 0z. Unfortunately it's not outside of the rhealm of possibilities. Hoping consensus says otherwise with nooners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: When the low gets towards the DelMarVa, I think most of CTP will be good for snow. I just want a juiced system that doesn’t cut & we should be good for snow. Agreed, its nice to have a system stay under us...no matter how it unfolds. While I see all of the nice maps, like some/many, I realize the typical climo says LSV is often on the edge. Me thinks that IF we can get things in E Central Ohio to clean up a tad, that may help to protect our precious thermals down here. See below and you'll see what i'm getting at. CMC also has it to some degree. GFS notsomuch. Mind you we cant wish things away, but as not all models have it, its what I'm focusing on for the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6z Euro is carp. Every other piece of guidance is getting rid of the OV primary route. Euro is doing its typical over amplifying since the last alleged update. In the words of Henry Fonda in the movie Battle of the Bulge when the Germans were approaching the fuel depot...."BURN IT, BURN IT, BURN IT ALL." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 6z Euro is carp. Every other piece of guidance is getting rid of the OV primary route. Euro is doing its typical over amplifying since the last alleged update. In the words of Henry Fonda in the movie Battle of the Bulge when the Germans were approaching the fuel depot...."BURN IT, BURN IT, BURN IT ALL." I miss the Euro before the "update". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 52 minutes ago, pasnownut said: After parsing over overnighters, my loins are starting to feel something as well..... Just remember, that guy from MU said no snow till mid late month or early Feb, so none of this really counts, so is all bonus stat padder kinda stuff. Hehe. I really, really do hope he is wrong...but until he is wrong, he isn't. I've seen models/forecasts for a lot more snow than this disappear with much less time remaining before onset. I'm not negative, but I am jaded. Many, many years of last second failures has taught me to assume nothing when it comes to snow. Until it's on the ground, that is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said: I miss the Euro before the "update". I remember in March 2018, soon after the update, it gave me 22 inches on the 0z run, then 12" on the 12z run. I ended up with just under 4" later that day. That never would have happened before the "update." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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