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November Banter 2023


George BM
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Forecast Discussion

Monday, December 11, 2023 4:26AM EST

A high to extreme impact overrunning winter event will affect the region over the next couple of days. Early this morning temps have fallen into the upper teens in the suburbs w/ low/mid 20s in town on NE winds. Snow has already moved into far southwestern areas including Charlottsville, Culpeper and Fredericksburg. This snow will overspread the rest of the area as dawn occurs. Temps could initially fall a few degrees, to 15-20F, as this occurs with the dry airmass in place. Snow will become heavy at times by mid-morning as the shortwave approaches from the west strengthening the WAA. Around that time, a changeover to sleet will occur over those southwestern areas towards central VA as warmer air aloft begins to overspread the region. This changeover to sleet will probably occur within the DC metro by midday or so as the aforementioned southwestern areas changeover to freezing rain. By the mid/late afternoon hours everyone south of I-70 in northern MD and the Baltimore metro region should have changed over to freezing rain. The precipitation throughout the day will be heavy at times.

Temperature-wise most of the region will start the day in the mid/upper teens before rising into the lower 20s towards northern MD by late afternoon, mid/upper 20s in the Greater Washington metro region and perhaps to near freezing in our southern zones towards Fredericksburg and Culpeper. Despite the fairly heavy freezing rain rates through the afternoon the temperatures greater than 5F below freezing may allow for significant ice accretion on trees and powerlines leading to numerous to potentially widespread power outages by evening. Freezing rain will lighten up and become showery as we get into the mid to late evening hours but with temperatures remaining in the 20s ice accretion (especially given the lighter rates) will be efficient.

By midnight, when round one should be out of the region, snow/sleet totals will range from 6-10”+ north of DC and across northern MD to 5-8” in the Greater DC metro region to 2-5” towards central VA and southern MD zones. Concerning ice accretion, areas near I-70 will most likely see around 0.25-0.4” of ice accretion with the Greater DC metro experiencing ½ to ¾ of an inch of accretion and southern areas receiving around half an inch as slightly warmer temps in those areas as well as the heaviest precip shifting north through the afternoon will limit ice accretion somewhat.

As the first shortwave moves to our east during the overnight/ pre-dawn Tuesday hours colder air aloft will start moving back southwards over the region. As a larger slug of moisture moves into the region towards dawn with the main system approaching from the WSW precip in the form of snow and sleet will overspread the region with freezing rain most likely in southern zones. At the same time, a reinforcing shot of arctic cold air will push in from the very strong ~1060mb surface high to our north. As a result, as the air aloft warms during the day on Tuesday with heavy precip overspreading the region the surface temps will remain deep in the 20s and may even fall a few degrees F as we go into the midday/afternoon hours. Precip will take the form of heavy snow towards I-70 and Baltimore with heavy sleet across the Greater DMV. A significant to potentially catastrophic ice storm from freezing rain will be taking place mainly south of I-66 & US-50 at least through the midday hours.

By Tuesday afternoon strong WAA aloft will allow all areas with the exception of far northern MD towards the MD/PA line (where a wintry mix will continue) to change over to freezing rain. Once again, the precip rates will be heavy at times w/ even some elevated convection possible during the afternoon and into the evening. While the air aloft will warm through Tuesday surface temperatures, thanks to the strong arctic high to the north, will likely remain steady ranging from the upper teens to the north to the mid/upper 20s in the southern reaches of the forecast area with the 20-25F range in between. It’s the PM hours of Tuesday that could prove to be truly historic with the chance of 1 to 2 inches of ice accretion on top of upwards of a foot or more of hardened snow and sleet. This may lead to catastrophic tree damage with structural damage to numerous buildings as well as nearly universal power outages.

By Tuesday night the main area of low pressure will pass by just south of the region. As that happens freezing rain and a wintry mix will change back over to snow from northwest to southeast before all precip eventually tapers off by just before dawn on Wednesday.

Once all of this is over snow and sleet totals of 10 to 15 inches will be commonplace in the region with upwards of 18+ inches in some locations in northern MD and 5 to 10 inches to the south. But on top of and embedded within that snow/sleet will likely be 1.5 to 2.5 inches of ice accretion potentially making roadways impassable for several days if not weeks given that temperatures will remain well below normal over at least the next 7-10 days with some sub-zero lows possible.

 

Forecaster Wannabe: George BM

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Just wow! You are definitely NO wannabe, George BM!

Two inches of ice accretion in N VA would not only be historic, but absolutely catastrophic. Not to mention all that snow and sleet/ice embedded within the snowpack. No power at all, freezing temps and essentially cut off from the rest of the world! Not having power and 34 in the house is no fun. I know. I dont want ice storms in south central Texas NO MORE. That much ice would produce structural damage and even big trees would simply snap. Houses would be bisected and cars crushed. I saw what three quarters of an inch of ice did to big oaks down here in Texas last Feb. We had a 16 inch branch snap right off. There were piles of branches all over Buda for weeks. I got the bajorkas worked right out of me dragging huge branches around. I'll tell you what I learned from that debacle: NO MAS. Never ever again. Ice on sidewalks and streets is no fun at all, especially once you get older. You could break your back just tryin to get the damn newspaper!

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Anybody know “@MeteoMark” on Twitter? Been showing up in my feed and mostly just seems like Ji with a degree. 

Massive weenie, bad reputation with the wx Twitter people. Not like we all aren’t guilty of this, but he’ll show the snowiest outcome and stick with it. Was using the CFS for short range forecasting last year.
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It's a damn good song. Some of Lennon's later stuff was absolutely fantastic, and I think we're so lucky that Paul and Ringo got to sink their teeth into it. Really poignant song, as well.

I heard they also used some backing vocals from a few other Beatles songs and that Paul may have played slide guitar on it.

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On 10/31/2023 at 10:01 PM, George BM said:

Forecast Discussion

Monday, December 11, 2023 4:26AM EST

A high to extreme impact overrunning winter event will affect the region over the next couple of days. Early this morning temps have fallen into the upper teens in the suburbs w/ low/mid 20s in town on NE winds. Snow has already moved into far southwestern areas including Charlottsville, Culpeper and Fredericksburg. This snow will overspread the rest of the area as dawn occurs. Temps could initially fall a few degrees, to 15-20F, as this occurs with the dry airmass in place. Snow will become heavy at times by mid-morning as the shortwave approaches from the west strengthening the WAA. Around that time, a changeover to sleet will occur over those southwestern areas towards central VA as warmer air aloft begins to overspread the region. This changeover to sleet will probably occur within the DC metro by midday or so as the aforementioned southwestern areas changeover to freezing rain. By the mid/late afternoon hours everyone south of I-70 in northern MD and the Baltimore metro region should have changed over to freezing rain. The precipitation throughout the day will be heavy at times.

Temperature-wise most of the region will start the day in the mid/upper teens before rising into the lower 20s towards northern MD by late afternoon, mid/upper 20s in the Greater Washington metro region and perhaps to near freezing in our southern zones towards Fredericksburg and Culpeper. Despite the fairly heavy freezing rain rates through the afternoon the temperatures greater than 5F below freezing may allow for significant ice accretion on trees and powerlines leading to numerous to potentially widespread power outages by evening. Freezing rain will lighten up and become showery as we get into the mid to late evening hours but with temperatures remaining in the 20s ice accretion (especially given the lighter rates) will be efficient.

By midnight, when round one should be out of the region, snow/sleet totals will range from 6-10”+ north of DC and across northern MD to 5-8” in the Greater DC metro region to 2-5” towards central VA and southern MD zones. Concerning ice accretion, areas near I-70 will most likely see around 0.25-0.4” of ice accretion with the Greater DC metro experiencing ½ to ¾ of an inch of accretion and southern areas receiving around half an inch as slightly warmer temps in those areas as well as the heaviest precip shifting north through the afternoon will limit ice accretion somewhat.

As the first shortwave moves to our east during the overnight/ pre-dawn Tuesday hours colder air aloft will start moving back southwards over the region. As a larger slug of moisture moves into the region towards dawn with the main system approaching from the WSW precip in the form of snow and sleet will overspread the region with freezing rain most likely in southern zones. At the same time, a reinforcing shot of arctic cold air will push in from the very strong ~1060mb surface high to our north. As a result, as the air aloft warms during the day on Tuesday with heavy precip overspreading the region the surface temps will remain deep in the 20s and may even fall a few degrees F as we go into the midday/afternoon hours. Precip will take the form of heavy snow towards I-70 and Baltimore with heavy sleet across the Greater DMV. A significant to potentially catastrophic ice storm from freezing rain will be taking place mainly south of I-66 & US-50 at least through the midday hours.

By Tuesday afternoon strong WAA aloft will allow all areas with the exception of far northern MD towards the MD/PA line (where a wintry mix will continue) to change over to freezing rain. Once again, the precip rates will be heavy at times w/ even some elevated convection possible during the afternoon and into the evening. While the air aloft will warm through Tuesday surface temperatures, thanks to the strong arctic high to the north, will likely remain steady ranging from the upper teens to the north to the mid/upper 20s in the southern reaches of the forecast area with the 20-25F range in between. It’s the PM hours of Tuesday that could prove to be truly historic with the chance of 1 to 2 inches of ice accretion on top of upwards of a foot or more of hardened snow and sleet. This may lead to catastrophic tree damage with structural damage to numerous buildings as well as nearly universal power outages.

By Tuesday night the main area of low pressure will pass by just south of the region. As that happens freezing rain and a wintry mix will change back over to snow from northwest to southeast before all precip eventually tapers off by just before dawn on Wednesday.

Once all of this is over snow and sleet totals of 10 to 15 inches will be commonplace in the region with upwards of 18+ inches in some locations in northern MD and 5 to 10 inches to the south. But on top of and embedded within that snow/sleet will likely be 1.5 to 2.5 inches of ice accretion potentially making roadways impassable for several days if not weeks given that temperatures will remain well below normal over at least the next 7-10 days with some sub-zero lows possible.

 

Forecaster Wannabe: George BM

This would literally be @Bob Chill's dream "glaciation" scenario!! :o:lol:

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Spent the day in Richmond attending the mid Atlantic severe weather conference. So much good weather research going on these days, and got to meet a lot of folks I’ve known from Twitter in broadcast meteorology and emergency management.

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1 hour ago, mappy said:

Spent the day in Richmond attending the mid Atlantic severe weather conference. So much good weather research going on these days, and got to meet a lot of folks I’ve known from Twitter in broadcast meteorology and emergency management.

There were lots of interesting topics! Not all of it I understand quite yet, but probably by next year I’ll know more.

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1 hour ago, George BM said:

What IPAs are you and everyone else in here celebrating this great day with?

It's also a great NFL football day. 4 matchups of top teams beginning with KC and Miami in Germany. Kickoff at 930am, so ofc I will start off with a Breakfast Stout from Flying Dog. I have some DFH 90 min IPAs in the fridge so might have one of those later. Depending on how the Ravens play, I might just go straight to the hard stuff. :yikes:

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

How long has it been? And iirc you didn't test positive for COVID?

I first got symptoms of a cold the weekend of September 9th. I had a dentist appt on the 12th and in trying to be respectful, I took a Covid test and was negative. Since then I’ve been diagnosed with bronchitis and most recently a sinus infection. I’ve been on two antibiotics, prednisone, albuterol, and steroid nasal sprays. The bronchitis cleared up with the first antibiotic and the albuterol. It just never cleared my head so I had a snot culture last Thursday. It’s not officially a sinus infection because the results aren’t back but she was confident enough to start a new antibiotic. I’m feeling better after a day and a half of amoxicillin, but still congested, especially my right ear. I lost taste and smell 17 days ago. 

I’ve tested myself a few times throughout for Covid, but I think I missed the contagious window, so never a positive result. It’s been frustrating but not debilitating. I haven’t missed any work though I probably have spread some of it around. :yikes:

I do think it’ll get better soon. @mattie g gave me hope when he said he lost angio something or other for three weeks. :lol:

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7 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I first got symptoms of a cold the weekend of September 9th. I had a dentist appt on the 12th and in trying to be respectful, I took a Covid test and was negative. Since then I’ve been diagnosed with bronchitis and most recently a sinus infection. I’ve been on two antibiotics, prednisone, albuterol, and steroid nasal sprays. The bronchitis cleared up with the first antibiotic and the albuterol. It just never cleared my head so I had a snot culture last Thursday. It’s not officially a sinus infection because the results aren’t back but she was confident enough to start a new antibiotic. I’m feeling better after a day and a half of amoxicillin, but still congested, especially my right ear. I lost taste and smell 17 days ago. 

I’ve tested myself a few times throughout for Covid, but I think I missed the contagious window, so never a positive result. It’s been frustrating but not debilitating. I haven’t missed any work though I probably have spread some of it around. :yikes:

I do think it’ll get better soon. @mattie g gave me hope when he said he lost angio something or other for three weeks. :lol:

Wow pretty protracted but sounds like you are on the mend. I had an ear infection during the summer of covid(not from covid though) and was given amoxicillin, which caused a severe body rash. No more of that stuff. Took prednisone to get rid of the rash. Loved that shit while it lasted lol. Happy pills.:lol:

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9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Wow pretty protracted but sounds like you are on the mend. I had an ear infection during the summer of covid(not from covid though) and was given amoxicillin, which caused a severe body rash. No more of that stuff. Took prednisone to get rid of the rash. Loved that shit while it lasted lol. Happy pills.:lol:

Fn prednisone is crazy. I lay in bed wide awake thinking stuff like, “This would be a good time to paint the house or put on an addition.”

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1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Still no taste or smell here. :cory:

Ugh. Just keep trying various foods and drinks and one day you’ll start sensing something and it should start coming back fairly quickly. For me, it took another week or so after I could definitely taste/smell in detail until I felt everything was back to normal.

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