Allsnow Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. We may have to be patient for our first snowfall. Very slow start to the season so far across the US. Outside one cold shot earlier this month the conus has not had much artic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Looks cold next week. Models just rushed it a few days 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Heard the MJO should be rounding into 7-8-1 toward the back end of Dec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 44 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Heard the MJO should be rounding into 7-8-1 toward the back end of Dec? It looks to be setting up that El nino MJO forcing loop at the current time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 16 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: The western trough isn’t nearly as deep as last December 10-20th. Also the NAO block is further north. Doesn’t guarantee anything but both of those aspects were part of the reason last December failed to give us a prolific event. You always want to see blocking showing up early since it often repeats itself later in winter. I’ll want to see this on multiple model runs though before believing it. GREAT post by ORH wxman on why last December failed. Maybe we cash in this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: GREAT post by ORH wxman on why last December failed. Maybe we cash in this time. Doesn't he live in Maine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Doesn't he live in Maine? I think Massachusetts, but that does not matter. What he is explaining would affect the entire East Coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Great sign for MJO 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 NYC likely misses another freeze this weekend, but will hit next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I think Massachusetts, but that does not matter. What he is explaining would affect the entire East Coast. Maybe but snow for new England doesn’t mean we'll see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, qg_omega said: NYC likely misses another freeze this weekend, but will hit next week Why do you say that? Forecast tomorrow night is 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Why do you say that? Forecast tomorrow night is 30 Yup. NWS 30 degrees with Nw wind 5-10 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 I’d take even just some snow showers at this point. We used to get occasional snow showers by late November, flurries etc. Seems like it’s all or Nothing in more recent times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup. NWS 30 degrees with Nw wind 5-10 miles Upper 20s here 11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Why do you say that? Forecast tomorrow night is 30 He’s….. something else 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 23, 2023 Author Share Posted November 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, psv88 said: I’d take even just some snow showers at this point. We used to get occasional snow showers by late November, flurries etc. Seems like it’s all or Nothing in more recent times 11 minutes ago, psv88 said: I’d take even just some snow showers at this point. We used to get occasional snow showers by late November, flurries etc. Seems like it’s all or Nothing in more recent times Think the EC has scattered snow showers around early next week...no meas. That's why I mentioned possible flurry. Let's see what happens with the instability and Lee of Lakes contrib to low level RH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Maybe but snow for new England doesn’t mean we'll see it Of course, however he was not just referring to northern new England. Part of New England is just a few miles from NYC. That difference could have smoked DC northward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Great sign for MJO Was always going to be hard to sustain something through 3-4-5 in a Nino this strong much as sustaining in a good 8-1-2 in a Nina is hard 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 23, 2023 Author Share Posted November 23, 2023 Model dreaming 00z/22 cycle and 12z/23 for about 12/5??? just single members and far too distant but maybe something of interest for part of NJ/NYS/CT? That's about all the big wintry storm stuff I can muster for around here... as of 1145AM/23. Not a topic for sure, but my hope is eternal. GGEM maybe a day or 2 sooner? 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: GREAT post by ORH wxman on why last December failed. Maybe we cash in this time. You can usually do okay here with a -PNA with a -NAO even in December as far as cold/chances for snow but if the PNA is like -1 or weaker...last December I think it was close to -2 for a time, that is too much to overcome in December 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 1 hour ago, psv88 said: I’d take even just some snow showers at this point. We used to get occasional snow showers by late November, flurries etc. Seems like it’s all or Nothing in more recent times Got married 10 years ago today, had a great snow squall that night that laid down some snow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: NYC likely misses another freeze this weekend, but will hit next week Because? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: And that was it for the winter. December was cold with no snow, the rest of the winter was a torch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 29 minutes ago, WX-PA said: And that was it for the winter. December was cold with no snow, the rest of the winter was a torch. We did manage to nickel and dime our way up to 15" or so with minor snows in January February and March. We also had snow showers nearly every day in late December during the arctic outbreak. Of course we also had the disastrous bust on 12/15 where a predicted 4 to 8" became a driving rainstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Maybe but snow for new England doesn’t mean we'll see it This is not a coastal snow pattern. It’s not as deep as last December, but I don’t like seeing that trough out west. The pacific is honestly bad enough that even parts of New England such as Boston would likely be skunked verbatim. My gut feeling is the the I-95 corridor (mainly from Boston to DC) and SE of that has to wait until January. I could be wrong, I’m not a meteorologist, but the similarities to last December are making me highly skeptical of this pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 15 minutes ago, George001 said: This is not a coastal snow pattern. It’s not as deep as last December, but I don’t like seeing that trough out west. The pacific is honestly bad enough that even parts of New England such as Boston would likely be skunked verbatim. My gut feeling is the the I-95 corridor (mainly from Boston to DC) and SE of that has to wait until January. I could be wrong, I’m not a meteorologist, but the similarities to last December are making me highly skeptical of this pattern. your concerns are overblown… there is a ridge out west here. nothing like last year with a trough digging into Baja CA. not sure what you’re referring to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: your concerns are overblown… there is a ridge out west here. nothing like last year with a trough digging into Baja CA. not sure what you’re referring to Weeklies look great for December . Nice change from warmth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 The coldest air mass so far this season will overspread the region tomorrow. Saturday morning will likely see New York City experience its first freeze of the season. The remainder of November will likely be generally cooler than normal with a reinforcing shot of cold air near the end of the month. However, no Arctic blasts appear likely. Conditions should also be mainly dry through the remainder of the month with the only rainfall likely Sunday night or Monday morning. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around November 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.70°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter as the current East-based event completes its evolution into a basinwide El Niño. Currently, 2023 is in uncharted territory as far as the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly and PDO are concerned. The October ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.59°C while the PDO was -1.71. Prior to 2023, the lowest October PDO when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C or above was -0.36 in 1965. Should the ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 anomalies remain at or above +1.00°C in December, which is likely, and should the PDO remain negative, there is a single past case (1950-2022) with similar conditions: December 1972. The SOI was -16.48 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.690 today. On November 21 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.570 (RMM). The November 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.578 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.9° (2.0° below normal). That would be New York City's coldest November since November 2019. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 Got married 10 years ago today, had a great snow squall that night that laid down some snowHey let’s keep this forum clean, you don’t have to tell us the details of your wedding night. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 anybody remember a snow squall white out situation on Thanksgiving eve?would’ve been mid early/mid 90s mid afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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