SACRUS Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Some showers and light rain into EPA/DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Perfect 100% day at the Jersey Shore for another local summer Sunday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Cmc has alot of rain for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc has alot of rain for next weekend That's likely a tropical/subtropical system. Other models are showing some homebrew development and all that moisture could head straight towards us. The tendency so far this season has been east with systems so I'm not buying the more west GFS right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 started off at 48 this morning, now 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 17, 2023 Author Share Posted September 17, 2023 2 hours ago, winterwx21 said: I think a quarter to half inch is a good forecast for our area. Looks like a meh event. I'm looking forward to the spectacular weather tuesday through friday with dewpoints dropping down to the 40s. Euro still insisting on 1 to 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Seems like whenever these 1030 mb highs move off the New England coast in the early fall there is often a subtropical or tropical system underneath. The CMC is most aggressive with development and track just to our west. Sometimes the CMC will score a coup over the GFS and Euro from a week out like late January 2021. But each case is different so you never know. At least it isn’t the Euro alone with a more amped up run than any model since we would probably automatically toss it with how erratic it has bee in recent years. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Up to 78 with some breaks of sun. Do think we are looking at some wetter times come 9/23 - 9/26 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 We'll see if the Euro winds up being right for tonight/tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 I’ve been living in west babylon for seven years. This year has been the most squirrel acorn activity I have seen. Too bad it’s a myth lol. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 2 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I’ve been living in west babylon for seven years. This year has been the most squirrel acorn activity I have seen. Too bad it’s a myth lol. . Lots of acorns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: We'll see if the Euro winds up being right for tonight/tomorrow. Models all have the split screw to some extent but getting a little less obnoxious with it other than the RGEM. They also have more of the coastal low rain hitting LI now. We'll just have to see what happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 26 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Models all have the split screw to some extent but getting a little less obnoxious with it other than the RGEM. They also have more of the coastal low rain hitting LI now. We'll just have to see what happens. Starting to like one of the epic snowstorm tracks for Long Island from 2013 to 2018. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Starting to like one of the epic snowstorm tracks for Long Island from 2013 to 2018. Can always use the rain here so hopefully it produces. So many recent shaftings however it’s tough to be hopeful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 55 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Can always use the rain here so hopefully it produces. So many recent shaftings however it’s tough to be hopeful. My $ is on shaft based on recent history, and the best returns down to the south “appears” it will stay to our east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Gfs is wetter for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Can always use the rain here so hopefully it produces. So many recent shaftings however it’s tough to be hopeful. I have been doing pretty well here at my new place near KHVN. Got about 1.37 in about 30 minutes a week ago. The whole side of the parking lot flooded to the top of the curb. So the further east you go recently the better you have done. Just hoping I can see a snowstorm up here like Nemo in 2013. Having a major ASOS so close by is a great benefit to knowing my observations with better precision. My little digital indoor outdoor thermometer has been very close to the airport temperature. They may even radiate slightly better there since the ASOS and airport is in a bowl lower than the surrounding area with a big hill a few blocks away. Great little airport but it does flood in heavy rains or big coastal surges. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Rain will arrive tonight and continue through tomorrow. A general 0.50"-1.50" of rain is likely. Eastern sections will likely see the heaviest rain. In the medium and longer range, a warmer than normal pattern could develop in eastern North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. The SOI was -13.65 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.387 today. On September 14 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.527 (RMM). The September 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.663 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.4° (2.2° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 Records Highs EWR: 95 (1991) endless summer NYC: 93 (1991) LGA: 95 (1991) Lows: EWR: 44 (1950) NYC: 45 (1986) LGA: 48 (1986) Historical: 1923: A devastating fire threatens the University of California at Berkeley on this day. This fire killed two and caused $10 million in damages. While the exact cause is unknown, the fire began in the dry forest northeast of Berkeley. Strong northeasterly winds blew cinders into the air which lead to the rapid-fire growth.1932 - Concord NH was drenched with 5.97 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a record for that location (16th- 17th). (The Weather Channel) 1963 - Nearly two and a half inches of rain fell at Yuma AZ in 24 hours. It was the most intense rain for Yuma during the period between 19S09 and 1977. (The Weather Channel) 1965 - A storm produced a band of heavy snow across parts of Wyoming. Totals of 23 inches at Rawlins and 20.7 inches at Lander easily surpassed previous snowfall record totals for so early in the season. (15th-17th) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain in the northeastern U.S. Heavy rain in southwestern Pennsylvania forced evacuation of twenty homes along Four Mile Run Creek, near Darlington. Harrisburg PA established a record for the date with 2.11 inches of rain. A cold front in the central U.S. brought freezing temperatures to parts of Montana and Wyoming. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Early in the morning a tornado hit Kelly Air Force Base in San Antonio, TX, injuring three persons and causing twenty-eight million dollars damage. A second tornado on the northwest side of San Antonio caused six million dollars damage, and a third tornado in Bexar County killed one person and injured another. Thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Gilbert spawned a total of forty-seven tornadoes in a two day period, with forty of those tornadoes in central and south central Texas. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Hurricane Hugo hit the Virgin Islands, producing wind gusts to 97 mph at Saint Croix. Hurricane Hugo passed directly over the island of Saint Croix causing complete devastation and essentially cutting off the island from communications. A storm surge of five to seven feet occurred at Saint Croix. The only rain gauge left operating, at Caneel Bay, indicated 9.40 inches in 24 hours. Hurricane Hugo claimed the lives of three persons at Saint Croix, and caused more than 500 million dollars damage. A ship, Nightcap, in the harbor of Culebra, measured wind gusts as high as 170 mph. A cold front brought high winds to the Great Basin and the Rocky Mountain Region, and thunderstorms along the cold front produced wind gusts to 66 mph at Yellowstone Park WY. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 2004: The remnants of Hurricane Ivan submerged Pittsburgh in 5.95 inches of rain in one day. That is the most rainfall Pittsburgh has seen in a 24-hour period since records began in 1876. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 9/17 PHL: 81 EWR: 79 LGA: 79 New Bnswck: 78 TEB: 78 ACY: 78 BLM: 77 NYC: 77 TTN: 76 ISP: 74 JFK: 73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 79 today. shocking to see the rain west of the city hitting a wall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 18, 2023 Author Share Posted September 18, 2023 Made it to .1" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 .14 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 HRRR very wet tomorrow for the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 37 minutes ago, psv88 said: 79 today. shocking to see the rain west of the city hitting a wall. Big Ben, Parliament. Here we go again 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 Humidity is back. Bleh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 Picked up 0.29" of rain for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 Finally a nice steady rain soaking rain for the island. Makes sense as we start to leave convective season and enter stratiform rain season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 9 hours ago, Allsnow said: .14 already 1.04 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 Picked up 0.51" of rain so far today. Storm total so far 0.80" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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