CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 6z GFS would be a hell of an event for TLH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I had 125mph yesterday.....the 150 peak may be off, though. I think the delay means maybe a slightly lower peak, but negligible impact on LF intensity. Still thinking 140 is very plausible late tonight...then a slight weakening just prior to landfall... RI, I would think is about 6 -12 hours away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I made one post...and then one more because someone asked. Yeah we don't want any amateur forecasts -- if that happens it might turn into a weather message board or something ... 4 2 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just now, LakeEffectKing said: Still thinking 140 is very plausible late tonight...then a slight weakening just prior to landfall... RI, I would think is about 6 -12 hours away. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Still thinking 140 is very plausible late tonight...then a slight weakening just prior to landfall... RI, I would think is about 6 -12 hours away. Yeah definitely agree with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah definitely agree with that. Severe sleep deprivation and markedly decreased productivity about 18-24 hours away- 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 That’d be in line with the hurricane models that show takeoff this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah definitely agree with that. I don't think the eye will clear out till about 8:00 or 9:00 (eastern) tonight. Takes several hours after closed EW is observed per aircraft, in my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just now, LakeEffectKing said: I don't think the eye will clear out till about 8:00 or 9:00 (eastern) tonight. Takes several hours after closed EW is observed per aircraft, in my experience. Looking at the potential west or east moves...while I understand a stronger storm may be more responsive to beta drift off to the NE...you can see a weakness extending NW into LA at 500mb. I don't necessarily see a kicker to the east and that weakness concerns me for perhaps a track on the western side of the envelope at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Could not pick a better place to landfall in Florida is terms of coastal population and coastal infrastructure. Mostly Wildlife Management areas and marsh. Will keep surge damage / loss to a relative minimum. Inland wind damage is another story. Lots of tree damage and power outages on tap. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z GFS would be a hell of an event for TLH. 12z too now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 6 minutes ago, MANDA said: Could not pick a better place to landfall in Florida is terms of coastal population and coastal infrastructure. Mostly Wildlife Management areas and marsh. Will keep surge damage / loss to a relative minimum. Inland wind damage is another story. Lots of tree damage and power outages on tap. I was just checking the area likely to get the largest surge on google maps. This has to be the least developed coastal area on the entire east/gulf coast. For once we get to watch a storm explode and not feel that back of the mind guilt about loss of life. Even inland it’s going to pass between Tallahassee and Gainesville. It wouldn’t surprise me if monetary losses are larger in the Carolina’s then Florida with this one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 12z too now You're not kidding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Apologies to that one dude whom I triggered, but here is my Final Call....feel free to not read or look because I am insignificant. Major Hurricane Strike on Florida Panhandle Expected Wednesday | Eastern Mass Weather 12 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Tornado Warning FLC021-291615- /O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0017.230829T1547Z-230829T1615Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Miami FL 1147 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Collier County in southwestern Florida... * Until 1215 PM EDT. * At 1146 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a waterspout located 11 miles south of Cape Romano, or 17 miles south of Marco Island, moving north at 40 to 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Marco Island, Cape Romano, Key Marco and Goodland. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 2598 8184 2600 8162 2581 8159 2581 8161 2578 8165 2578 8171 2593 8183 2597 8184 TIME...MOT...LOC 1546Z 163DEG 39KT 2569 8165 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN $$ Baxter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You're not kidding. 12Z HAFS B basically goes right over TLH, landfall on Dog Island/Carrabelle from the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drstuess Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 CIMSS AI RI probabilities increasing as expected...Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: 12Z HAFS B basically goes right over TLH, landfall on Dog Island/Carrabelle from the looks of it. 12z is out on Tropical Tidbits? I don’t see it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: 12Z HAFS B basically goes right over TLH, landfall on Dog Island/Carrabelle from the looks of it. Blame my buddy who sent me 06z when I'm mobile on a job site you're correct. Didn't realize 6z was that far left. 933mb at LF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 12z is out on Tropical Tidbits? I don’t see it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just now, hudsonvalley21 said: Thanks—I was looking for the hurricane models: HWRF, HAFS A, HAFS B they come out a little later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Gracious -- the CMC goes way west -- all the way to Apalachicola and then WEST of Tallahassee - I mean if this verified it would be pretty ugly for the NHC as this is WELL outside of the cone from their 11 a.m. advisory. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 CMC is not a great model for tropical events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just now, beanskip said: Gracious -- the CMC goes way west -- all the way to Apalachicola and then WEST of Tallahassee - I mean if this verified it would be pretty ugly for the NHC as this is WELL outside of the cone from their 11 a.m. advisory. There’s a weakness showing that allows it to come north. Interesting day ahead 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 This thing is like a carbon copy of Michael’s progression to this point. Go back and rewatch a satellite loop of hurricane Michael from its birth as a depression to when it passed west of key west. The resemblance is scary 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: CMC is not a great model for tropical events Yeah I know. I guess my point is, when's the last time you can remember an NHC cone where at 30 hours the CMC is 100 miles outside the cone and the GFS is outside it or just straddling its edge? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, beanskip said: Yeah I know. I guess my point is, when's the last time you can remember an NHC cone where at 30 hours the CMC is 100 miles outside the cone and the GFS is outside it or just straddling its edge? NHC possibly thinking that some land interaction is going to pull it a bit east? Not sure that sort of nuance is captured in models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 I'm surprised they don't have another recon plane in there now. NHC's schedule says there will be a new plane in the storm every three hours, beginning at 2030z this afternoon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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