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Hurricane Idalia


hlcater
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6 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Idalia_26-27Aug23_canc_recent.gif

A little hard to tell but it looks like circulation will come very close or over Cozumel. 

The thing here is that the circulation is small enough and the current convective intensity is low enough that if a large MCS were to fire to the east, either the current center would be pulled east toward it, or a new center could form.

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0Z UKMET: ~40 mile E shift at LF into NW FL Big Bend vs E Panhandle on 12Z run; once inland sharper turn to go offshore SC vs 12Z going over Augusta and then staying inland through SC into much of NC


   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10L        ANALYSED POSITION : 21.0N  85.5W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102023

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 27.08.2023    0  21.0N  85.5W     1004            25
    1200UTC 27.08.2023   12  20.3N  85.6W     1002            27
    0000UTC 28.08.2023   24  20.6N  85.3W      999            32
    1200UTC 28.08.2023   36  21.7N  85.5W      999            35
    0000UTC 29.08.2023   48  22.8N  85.5W     1000            38
    1200UTC 29.08.2023   60  24.5N  85.6W     1000            41
    0000UTC 30.08.2023   72  26.5N  85.3W      998            39
    1200UTC 30.08.2023   84  29.2N  84.1W      995            45
    0000UTC 31.08.2023   96  31.9N  81.8W      992            42
    1200UTC 31.08.2023  108  33.6N  77.7W      991            43
    0000UTC 01.09.2023  120  34.4N  73.4W      992            56
    1200UTC 01.09.2023  132  34.4N  69.0W      996            52
    0000UTC 02.09.2023  144  33.2N  65.7W     1000            45
    1200UTC 02.09.2023  156  33.6N  63.2W      999            43
    0000UTC 03.09.2023  168  33.5N  60.3W      997            48

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5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Pressure down to 1001mb according to the NHC.

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023
100 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...DEPRESSION BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
A FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 86.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Isle of Youth Cuba

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was 
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 86.8 West.  The 
depression is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and 
it is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through early 
Monday. A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is 
expected later on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern 
Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few
days.  The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later 
today and a hurricane by Tuesday.  

A Weatherflow station on Cozumel recently reported a sustained wind 
of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a wind gust of 48 mph (78 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches) 
based on surface observations from Cozumel and Playa del Carmen
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4 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z Euro into the Big Bend of FL... 987mb SLP around hr 90

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_se.png

 

A little west of runs yesterday. Recon will be taking off around 6am and we’ll have a bunch of data going into the models so hopefully the end up with a high confidence forecast. 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

A little west of runs yesterday. Recon will be taking off around 6am and we’ll have a bunch of data going into the models so hopefully the end up with a high confidence forecast. 

At the very least, I am more interested on the data they collect out ahead of the system across the Gulf. Curious to know if the models are right concerning the non-existence of dry air and the observations yielding decreasing shear. 

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42 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z Euro into the Big Bend of FL... 987mb SLP around hr 90

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_se.png

 

This is the strongest Euro yet as others were in low 990s at landfall and is very near the 0Z UKMET landfall point. This would be a big mess for the Big Bend wind-wise and especially storm surge-wise in this very vulnerable high poverty area as was discussed earlier ITT.

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Some of the models were right about the vorticity dropping southward and not doing too much, for now.  Cancun radar shows a bit of a misalignment.  The convection and mid level rotation appears a bit east of the surface center.  The surface center moved ssw for a while, but now appears to be getting pulled back east a bit toward the new convection.

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TD10's overall appearance was better 24 hours ago.  It is trying to get its act together southeast of Cozumel this morning.  The question is can it maintain the convection today and organize the core or will it fizzle during d-min like yesterday?

The first recon plane is headed in from the east, but it is still several hours away.

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There's a nice area of convection popping up over the center as it appears on radar. The center appears to be well to the southeast of Cozumel and I don't see any land interaction happening as models were thinking might happen. 

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There are clearly some negative forces affecting TD10.  Convection blew up this morning and tried to align the various levels together, but satellite and Cancun radar suggest an area of sinking air is pressing down from the north, which is eroding the convection and pushing it south of the weak surface circulation.  All of the deep moisture is south and well east of the center.  The global models must have seen this.

Edit:  The surface center has performed a bit of a loop overnight and this morning.  It passed southward over Cozumel, then continued southward for a while, but then turned east, passing under this morning's convection, and has now moved well out from under the convection and may be moving northeastward.

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Not really much to say this morning other than for reasons earlier described it looks like the well defined LLC we were all tracking yesterday and overnight is a fragile feature. Not really going to have thoughts on the models and system until recon has had a chance to fully sample the environment and examine the TD. 

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2 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Not sure if the llc is feeling the effects of the deeper convection to the east or what but it’s getting pulled that direction in a hurry on visible 

Looks like a rather disjointed mess attm.  Of note though is that it is solidly in the NW Caribbean.  If some sort of core can get together before it starts to lift north that will allow it to enter the southern GOM ready to go.  If it is still disjointed upon entering the southern GOM the odds of a major hit IMO go down.  If it enters the GOM as an intensifying more or less well developed system I'd be concerned!

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4 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Looks like a rather disjointed mess attm.  Of note though is that it is solidly in the NW Caribbean.  If some sort of core can get together before it starts to lift north that will allow it to enter the southern GOM ready to go.  If it is still disjointed upon entering the southern GOM the odds of a major hit IMO go down.  If it enters the GOM as an intensifying more or less well developed system I'd be concerned!

Looking at the water vapor map looks like the main vortex is a naked swirl for now a bit of NNE shear... also I am assuming the upper level low over Louisiana will be the feature that drags Depression #10 north.  

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Holding at TD 10 at 11am

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

So far this morning, the overall cloud pattern of the tropical
cyclone has not become significantly better organized.  The small
center is partially exposed on GOES-16 visible imagery, and
convective banding features are still not very well defined.  The 
current intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory which is in 
line with the latest Dvorak Satellite estimates.  A NOAA Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft, flying at around 12000 ft, is near the center of 
the system taking Doppler radar wind velocity measurements.  These 
data should provide valuable information on the structure of the 
cyclone for initializing the numerical weather prediction models.

The center of the cyclone appears to have been moving in a small
clockwise loop overnight and into this morning, and it will
probably complete this loop today.  The initial motion estimate is
now around 090/2 kt.  Steering currents should remain weak through
today and tonight.  Beginning on Monday, a mid-level ridge starts to
build near southern Florida and eastward.  This evolution should
cause a generally northward motion during the next couple of days.
In 48 to 72 hours, a mid-level trough dropping into the eastern U.S.
will likely induce a turn toward the north-northeast and take the
system across the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast on Wednesday.  The
official forecast track has been nudged to the right of the
previous one, but is not quite as far east as the latest corrected
consensus, HCCA, prediction.  Users are reminded not to focus on
the exact forecast track, since strong winds, heavy rains and
dangerous storm surges extend well away from the center.

The cyclone will be moving over waters of high oceanic heat content 
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and within a moist mid- to 
low-level air mass for the next few days.  An upper-tropospheric 
trough is predicted to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico in 48 
to 72 hours.  Although this feature could produce some moderate 
southwesterly vertical wind shear over the system,  positive 
vorticity advection and diffluent upper-level flow to the east of 
the trough will likely be conducive for strengthening.  The 
official forecast, like the previous one, calls for the cyclone to 
reach hurricane status over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in 48 to 72 
hours.  This is at the high end of the latest intensity model 
guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to become a hurricane over the eastern 
Gulf of Mexico, and there is an increasing risk of life-threatening 
storm surge, flooding from heavy rainfall, and hurricane-force winds 
along portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida 
Panhandle beginning as early as  Tuesday.  Although it is too soon 
to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts, 
residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast, 
have their hurricane plan in place, and follow any advice given by 
local officials.  Storm surge and hurricane watches may be required 
for portions of the Gulf coast of Florida later today.

2. Heavy rainfall is expected across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula 
and western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding 
and landslides across western Cuba.  The depression is forecast to 
become a tropical storm later today, and tropical storm conditions 
are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and extreme 
western Cuba with tropical storm conditions possible on the Isle of 
Youth. 

3. Scattered flooding from heavy rainfall is likely over in 
portions of the southeast U.S. by mid to late week. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 19.9N  85.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 19.7N  85.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 20.6N  85.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 21.9N  85.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 24.0N  85.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  30/0000Z 26.2N  85.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 28.9N  84.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  31/1200Z 33.0N  79.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
120H  01/1200Z 34.5N  74.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 

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000
WTNT65 KNHC 271513
TCUAT5

Tropical Storm Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023
1015 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023


...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that 
Tropical Depression Ten has strengthened into Tropical Storm Idalia.
The maximum winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1015 AM CDT...1515 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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