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12 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

European model back to wetter less warm scenario now with the upper lows over the southeast and southeasterly winds here. It goes back and forth. Followed by a mid Atlantic soaker.ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_10.png

WX/PT

ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_9.png

Euro op keeps showing these soakers in the medium range only to disappear as we get closer. This probably isn’t any diff

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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro op keeps showing these soakers in the medium range only to disappear as we get closer. This probably isn’t any diff

The Euro drew up these kinds of solutions for a week only to drop them in favor of a stronger Bermuda HP for one and a half days now back to its original thinking. You think it flips back to a strong Bermuda HP? Maybe but I doubt it.

WX/PT

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

light to moderate rain-this batch is dying as it moves east....doesn't look like much behind it

If temperatures warm dramatically once the rain ends don't be surprised to see some showers and storms pop. But we'll see if there is too much cloudcover or if it takes too long to get out from underneath what's over us.

WX/PT

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3 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

The Euro drew up these kinds of solutions for a week only to drop them in favor of a stronger Bermuda HP for one and a half days now back to its original thinking. You think it flips back to a strong Bermuda HP? Maybe but I doubt it.

WX/PT

If the Bermuda HP that builds is too strong or displaced further north the heat will be in Burlington Montreal, Albany, and Bangor but not here. It's another one of three possible outcomes.

WX/PT

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13 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

If temperatures warm dramatically once the rain ends don't be surprised to see some showers and storms pop. But we'll see if there is too much cloudcover or if it takes too long to get out from underneath what's over us.

WX/PT

Agreed-I'm well east of NYC so won't likely clear out here...although models pop a low overnight and give us a chance.  Tomorrow looks drier than what upton has based on today's models

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57 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

If temperatures warm dramatically once the rain ends don't be surprised to see some showers and storms pop. But we'll see if there is too much cloudcover or if it takes too long to get out from underneath what's over us.

WX/PT

The temp is back up to 69 here with partial sunshine after dropping to 63 when the rain/storms moved thru earlier.

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21 minutes ago, MANDA said:

It sure is legit.  People have no courtesy or manners towards others.  Show me kids with no manners and I'll show you parents with less.  Seen it way to many times. 

Bingo. When they introduced themselves to us, they literally warned us that they’re obnoxious, and man they are. Screaming kids, and music so loud that I can hear it over my TV. Luckily we have local code enforcement, who are on speed dial!

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3 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Bingo. When they introduced themselves to us, they literally warned us that they’re obnoxious, and man they are. Screaming kids, and music so loud that I can hear it over my TV. Luckily we have local code enforcement, who are on speed dial!

Been there and done that.  Never again.  My biggest problem now is black bear roaming through the yard and deer and rabbits eating my flowers.

Given the two I'll choose the latter.   When they tell you they are obnoxious you know you are going to have issues.

 

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11 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Bingo. When they introduced themselves to us, they literally warned us that they’re obnoxious, and man they are. Screaming kids, and music so loud that I can hear it over my TV. Luckily we have local code enforcement, who are on speed dial!

Gotta hate those damn kids always having a good time!!!

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4 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Been there and done that.  Never again.  My biggest problem now is black bear roaming through the yard and deer and rabbits eating my flowers.

Given the two I'll choose the latter.   When they tell you they are obnoxious you know you are going to have issues.

 

In their warped minds, by telling us that they are obnoxious somehow justifies their behavior, and we should just accept it. To which I give it a big fat NO. I’m relentless in my quest to make them STFU

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3 minutes ago, sn0w said:

Gotta hate those damn kids always having a good time!!!

Nothing against that, but there’s also respecting the neighbors. Several people have called them out for the noise 

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48 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

In their warped minds, by telling us that they are obnoxious somehow justifies their behavior, and we should just accept it. To which I give it a big fat NO. I’m relentless in my quest to make them STFU

It's not the parents, I've tried and failed.  There is something in the water.  They are almost all like that...

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An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of June.

Tomorrow will see clouds, sunshine and some additional showers and thundershowers. The pleasantly warm readings will continue through the Juneteenth holiday. Warmer conditions could begin to develop late in the week.

Parts of Texas are in the early stages of an extreme heat event. High temperatures through 5 pm CDT included:

Austin: 103° (tied record set in 1925 and tied in 2011 and 2022)
Corpus Christi: 97°
Cotulla: 111° (old record: 107°, 2011)
Del Rio: 107°
Houston: 97°
Junction: 110° (old record: 107°, 1960) ***New all-time record***
Laredo: 108°
San Angelo: 106°
San Antonio: 101°

At present, there is little indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was -4.57 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.889 today.

On June 14 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.676 (RMM). The June 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.616 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.0° (0.8° below normal).

 

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23 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

6/16


EWR: 82
LGA: 82
TEB: 81
New Brnswck: 80
BLM: 79
NYC: 79
ISP: 79
JFK: 78
ACY: 76
TTN: 75
PHL: 73
 

Good evening SACRUS. Thank you for the daily summary. It seems when the warm season is demonstrating a cooler return, CPK’s forested weather stations 89’s turn into 79’s. Stay well as always….

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