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2023 - tracking the tropics

mcglups

By mcglups,
in New England

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kdxken
kdxken

"0z hurricane models are way offshore. " "they actually got closer compared to 18z  " American Weather - for when you life depends on it.

hudsonvalley21
hudsonvalley21

Sorry, had to do it.   

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol..if only. 

Toss that, but I’ve been looking at potential from a CAG in that region for the last week of August going back a week now. A system in the eastern Gulf into the SE region wouldn’t surprise me. From there probably OTS but who knows. 

If we get anything this year, it’s not coming from a long track MDR wave IMO with the difficulty we’ve seen getting a proper WAR. It’s homebrew or bust around here.

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

What’s this CAG? Central Area of The Gulf? 

Central American Gyre. It’s a broad area of spin over the region that usually appears a few times a year but mostly late season. You can get homebrew spin ups from it in the Atlantic or EPAC but forecasting TC development from it is notoriously difficult.

XmLj1Ip.jpg


Even on the less bullish GFS, the broad vorticity is there. In the area right above the bottom arrow, you can see higher vorticity in the EPAC that’ll likely spin up. As a monsoon trough on the EPAC side (ribbon of higher vorticity) continues lifting north, it’ll bring more vorticity to the Atlantic. Whether something pops is anyone’s guess. It’s far more complicated than I just described. 

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8vor4/wg8vor4_loop.html

In recent years some of our big dog storms in the Atlantic (Michael/Ida) have come from a CAG. Not saying that’ll happen here but a spin up in the western Atlantic and eastern Gulf would be primed since you have high end OHC and would probably need a low shear environment for even a seedling to organize. 

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hazey said:

Interesting scenarios for that trough interaction. That will be the thing to watch in the coming model runs. Transitioning TC fooling with guidance at this lead time.

Still worth watching Franklin up there, though it looks like we may be settling on more Newfoundland impacts. 

xt4HeuK.png
 

V1UQvi8.png

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Crazy how just a few days before Andrew landfall, it weakened from a 50mph TS to a diffuse  low Classified as a tropical storm (but Pressure of 1015 mb  )  in SW Atlantic (north of islands ). Then BOOM 

All the Cat 5’s to hit the US were TS three days before landfall. That’s incredible to me. 

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

Posted
Posted

Ironic that one's perspective changes. 10 years ago or there about I wanted to experience a Major Hurricane. TODAY- no friggin way.
Since moving here even the brushed by tropical systems packed a punch, (lucky I guess) there is one out there. I kind of like my possessions, property and especially my life.
Here the storms are different than in the northern clims. More often than not they're sheared out weakening systems moving at highway speeds once getting to SNE's latitude.
Franklin has been well modelled. Not the set-up conducive for a New England LF.
This threat that the EURO has been showing has potential and of course the GFS is OTL just now picking it up.
The GOM's SST are rocket fuel. Worse scenario- UL trough moves W, shear abates, and the system explodes. LF in FL. with the E. Coast abused then makes another LF in or around L.I.
Not a forecast but it is possible! My interest is piqued. Should be interesting for the next 3 days.   

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

All the Cat 5’s to hit the US were TS three days before landfall. That’s incredible to me. 

Unlike some West Pac TCs, Atlantic hurricanes seldom remain at Cat 5 for more than 1-2 days, so the intensification has to be perfectly timed for a Cat 5 landfall.  Also, unlike the much of the West Pac region, the GOM and southern US Atlantic coasts have relatively shallow depths extending significant distances offshore, which may decrease intensity before landfall here.

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

@WxWatcher007

Are there any products out there which are good to assess with forecasting wind shear? I know they have the shear maps and shear tendency maps on spaghetti models, but what about for forecasting shear?

On TT I like using 200-850mb wind shear, and the same 200-850mb wind shear anomaly plot for pattern recognition. Going deeper, I love using the 355k Potential Vorticity plots as well to recognize TUTT development/movement/strength. Of course, you have the averaged soundings that can be used as well. 

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It absolutely has a chance, though I’m not sure if it gets there. NOAA throwing all the recon it has at this one starting tomorrow.

Some models show the  NE winds over the N Gulf (Around the E Texas high pressure ) try to bring down some of that drier air From northern gulf (seen on water vapor ) and entrain it into the system (particularly the west side) which seems to inhibit it . We know that it’s structure has developed ahead of schedule , and I think watching to see if it can avoid getting dry air trained will be key to this over-performing , assuming it doesn’t meander over land in next day or so 

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Some models show the  NE winds over the N Gulf (Around the E Texas high pressure ) try to bring down some of that drier air From northern gulf (seen on water vapor ) and entrain it into the system (particularly the west side) which seems to inhibit it . We know that it’s structure has developed ahead of schedule , and I think watching to see if it can avoid getting dry air trained will be key to this over-performing , assuming it doesn’t meander over land in next day or so 

Certainly possible that continental dry air causes disruption, but I think it’s less of a risk here than usual because there doesn’t look to be enough shear to impart it on a system that should be relatively organized and therefore more resistant to the shear. 

The upper level trough looks weak in a few days and if anything I think it’ll promote ventilation/outflow. Let’s say it doesn’t though. If future Idalia is able to build an organized core as it enters the Gulf, the outflow should be able to blunt the influence of shear and dry air.

I think that’s why models are basically unanimous in having this intensify through landfall. That’s a huge flag to me that this has a higher ceiling. 

The possibility of land interaction the next 36 hours or so is really critical to the track and intensity forecast. 

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