Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[rclab]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

We are very close and she also wants to write a book.

I write various material, mostly poetry, but also short stories and science documentaries.  I finally figured out a way to share some of my writing without clogging up the thread, I screenshotted some of it.  Some of these were inspired by music I listened to, others came to me in my dreams.

 

“Go back in time at last learn how to be free” …. THANK YOU …. As always …..

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Figures, with how many I saw with just a camera and 300mm lens right in the camera's LCD!

It's why we had all those gorgeous pink storms around the sun's outer rim during the total solar eclipse too.

 

Is there a timeframe when to keep track of sunspot count prior to the winter-- like, fall, or summer?

Interesting thing about 2004, that was right in the middle of a series of snowy winters (2002-03 to 2004-05)

 

 The sunspots will very likely still be active next winter…likely 100+ as they shouldn’t start dropping sharply for couple of years.

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The sunspots will very likely still be active next winter…likely 100+ as they shouldn’t start dropping sharply for couple of years.

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt

Yes-- next year is the peak of activity (solar maximum).

 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, rclab said:

“Go back in time at last learn how to be free” …. THANK YOU …. As always …..

a lesson learned from my dearly departed parents, you're very welcome!

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, why don't we see interest in summer weather too?

I find extreme heat just as exciting as the thought of big snowstorms.

Both involve high numbers-- 20 inches of snow and 100 degrees are equally exciting because both are very rare.

 

I suspect some of the interest can be seen in severe weather discussions and tropical cyclone discussions. Commentary seems to drop off when it comes to heat, probably because a lot of people don't like it. Nevertheless, heat is an important topic for discussion.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect some of the interest can be seen in severe weather discussions and tropical cyclone discussions. Commentary seems to drop off when it comes to heat, probably because a lot of people don't like it. Nevertheless, heat is an important topic for discussion.

I find extensive heat powerful and memorable, those summers stay in our memories just like big snowstorms do.

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 If you’re referring to -NAO winters, there have been only 6 since 1979-80, including the two you listed. All 6 were near solar minimums with avg daily sunspots under 35: other 4 1984-5, 1986-7, 2009-10, 2020-21. Every solar min since 1980 has had 1-2 -NAO winters. Coincidence?

This is going to be both a very high solar and very high geomag winter. The current overperforming solar max cycle is expected to peak (sunspots) around October 

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is going to be both a very high solar and very high geomag winter. The current overperforming solar max cycle is expected to peak (sunspots) around October 

Lots of auroral activity too

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

It also looks like a central based Nina which is bad for E Coast snow south of far upstate NY/New England. Our odds small as they are hinge on the high ACE panning out, if that disappoints it’ll be an easy slam the blinds. Hopefully the high ACE means mostly recurves but the precip anomaly maps for summer hint at lots of activity off FL/Carolinas tracking north towards us vs OTS. These steeper Bermuda High ridges recently lead to more of these outcomes. 

Those Caribbean cruiser/ GOF seasons aren’t great for Long Island surfers, so I’ll pass.

Personally I think this season will be so hyperactive there will be activity everywhere. That and the eastern MDR being so freakishly warm leads to a tendency for early development and strengthening which favors recurves.

[snowman19]

17 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Lots of auroral activity too

IMO the very high solar flux is going to be the elephant in the room this upcoming winter. It is going to be a big player just like the 2001 solar flux was

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO the very high solar flux is going to be the elephant in the room this upcoming winter. It is going to be a big player just like the 2001 solar flux was

And we also had it in 1990 and 1991 when we had 22 out of 24 months above normal and you know how bad the winters were back then.

It would be interesting if there's any info about the early 70s because we had some really bad winters back then too.

[snowman19]

22 hours ago, GaWx said:

 If you’re referring to -NAO winters, there have been only 6 since 1979-80, including the two you listed. All 6 were near solar minimums with avg daily sunspots under 35: other 4 1984-5, 1986-7, 2009-10, 2020-21. Every solar min since 1980 has had 1-2 -NAO winters. Coincidence?

Not only solar minimum but also low geomag. HM did a write up years ago on why solar minimum/low geomag strongly supports -NAO winters

[snowman19]

It also looks like a central based Nina which is bad for E Coast snow south of far upstate NY/New England. Our odds small as they are hinge on the high ACE panning out, if that disappoints it’ll be an easy slam the blinds. Hopefully the high ACE means mostly recurves but the precip anomaly maps for summer hint at lots of activity off FL/Carolinas tracking north towards us vs OTS. These steeper Bermuda High ridges recently lead to more of these outcomes. 

The CFS is predicting the first ever “super” La Niña lol

[Brian5671]

On 4/20/2024 at 8:38 AM, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 How long before we see Joe Bastardi pull out 95-96 and 10-11 as his “analogs” for next winter? He’s already wishcasting a hyper active Atlantic tropical season with recurving hurricanes so he can use the La Niña/high Atlantic ACE = -NAO winter theory (i.e. 1995)…….

He's only predicted a warm winter once that I can remember-sometime in the early 2000's (he was right too).   He's been god awful since 2015 which was really our last cold winter.  His cold bias gets in the way.  Not sure anyone really takes him seriously anymore-he's had to have lost ALOT of clients after the last few years and then his wonky political stuff too lol...    He'll probably be right on the hyperactive Atlantic season although the verdict is out as to whether it's a recurve season or coastal strike season.

[Brian5671]

22 hours ago, snowman19 said:

IMO the very high solar flux is going to be the elephant in the room this upcoming winter. It is going to be a big player just like the 2001 solar flux was

That was the torch of all torches.   Almost no precip either...

[snowman19]

19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

He's only predicted a warm winter once that I can remember-sometime in the early 2000's (he was right too).   He's been god awful since 2015 which was really our last cold winter.  His cold bias gets in the way.  Not sure anyone really takes him seriously anymore-he's had to have lost ALOT of clients after the last few years and then his wonky political stuff too lol...    He'll probably be right on the hyperactive Atlantic season although the verdict is out as to whether it's a recurve season or coastal strike season.

No doubt in my mind that he’s going for a huge cold and snowy east coast winter this year. That’s the reason why he’s hyping a La Niña with a hyper active recurving Atlantic hurricane season and a +PDO. He’s looking for any excuse to say 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 are analogs (if the PDO doesn’t work out, he will say the +QBO matches 2010). His entire existence depends on the east coast weenies forking him over subscription money and giving him likes, follows and retweets on X

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

No doubt in my mind that he’s going for a huge cold and snowy east coast winter this year. That’s the reason why he’s hyping a La Niña with a hyper active recurving Atlantic hurricane season and a +PDO. He’s looking for any excuse to say 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 are analogs (if the PDO doesn’t work out, he will say the +QBO matches 2010). His entire existence depends on the east coast weenies forking him over subscription money and giving him likes, follows and retweets on X

At some point that will decline-I've notice some of his most ardent followers on other boards have started to jump ship...

[snowman19]

28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That was the torch of all torches.   Almost no precip either...

As @GaWx pointed out, we have only had 6 -NAO winters since 1979-1980. Literally ALL of those 6 occurred during solar minimums with a very low number of sunspots and low geomag activity. We have the complete 180 degree opposite of that right now with the solar max/high solar flux/high geomag cycle. Given this fact, predict a -NAO winter at your own risk 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

That was the torch of all torches.   Almost no precip either...

it carried into the spring and summer too, what an absolutely awesome summer that was!

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

At some point that will decline-I've notice some of his most ardent followers on other boards have started to jump ship...

I jumped ship in 2002 lol

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As @GaWx pointed out, we have only had 6 -NAO winters since 1979-1980. Literally ALL of those 6 occurred during solar minimums with a very low number of sunspots and low geomag activity. We have the complete 180 degree opposite of that right now with the solar max/high solar flux/high geomag cycle. Given this fact, predict a -NAO winter at your own risk 

Instead the -NAO are happening in April and May lol.

I didn't know how much fun watching sunspots could be.  The trio of sunspots I photographed near the "top" of the sun have now moved to the middle of the sun.  They moved this much in just a week or 10 days.

[uofmiami]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Instead the -NAO are happening in April and May lol.

I didn't know how much fun watching sunspots could be.  The trio of sunspots I photographed near the "top" of the sun have now moved to the middle of the sun.  They moved this much in just a week or 10 days.

You are going to make me break out my solar binoculars I got for the eclipse. It was amazing seeing the sunspot then. I was able to have my nephew see it prior to eclipse and he wanted to see after it was over as well. 

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

You are going to make me break out my solar binoculars I got for the eclipse. It was amazing seeing the sunspot then. I was able to have my nephew see it prior to eclipse and he wanted to see after it was over as well. 

I enjoy it more than looking at the craters on the moon because the craters don't move!  It's fun discovering new sunspots too, the sun is full of surprises my friend!

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Instead the -NAO are happening in April and May lol.

I didn't know how much fun watching sunspots could be.  The trio of sunspots I photographed near the "top" of the sun have now moved to the middle of the sun.  They moved this much in just a week or 10 days.

 And even more so during summer (on average) since 2007. During these last 17 summers, 12 (71%) have averaged sub -0.25 NAO (my threshold for -NAO vs neutral) vs only 3 (18%) with a +0.25+ (+NAO), meaning a 4:1 ratio! Compare that to summers 1950-2006, which had a much more balanced 33% sub -0.25 NAO and 32% +0.25+ (~1:1 ratio).

[forkyfork]

magenta from may through christmas plz

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

magenta from may through christmas plz

 

Just wait until TWC starts naming heatwaves lol

 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Just wait until TWC starts naming heatwaves lol

 

It's coming

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Just wait until TWC starts naming heatwaves lol

 

I wonder how many watch TWC now vs 30 yrs ago--has got to be 1/5 of what is used to be....

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I wonder how many watch TWC now vs 30 yrs ago--has got to be 1/5 of what is used to be....

it's a gimmick now, mostly for gardeners and travel.  They should rename it to The Recreational Channel.

 

[LibertyBell]

53 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's coming

They even talked about it last year citing the high death toll in Europe from heat waves (I think the heat waves get named there?)