CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Looks like Ray's nipples on a cold day beaming through his Golds Gym tank top. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Miller C Jerry's 1960 and my first snowstorm memory. My dad holding me at 3 years old while we visited our brand new house. Yes...that is what this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: Yeah but the more pure miller A looks dicey temp wise even up your way Which is why I want a delayed capture...this has been the trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I thought you were all into a Saturday moderate event …and this was a Nada? Have we joined in? Nice to have you my friend. Let’s have a major, and then call it a season. Well Saturday is a couple inches south of 90.. . I’m traveling in VT next week and trying to get idea on time line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If the N stream interaction is delayed, which has been the trend, then that isn't the case...this is why we see the SLP trending east at 06z, but the parent H5 hanging on longer. That works just don’t trend this for another EOR special or I’ll retire from tracking. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That works just don’t trend this for another EOR special or I’ll retire from tracking. Where do you want the low to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, George001 said: Where do you want the low to go Not another late capture like Jan15 but we’re getting ahead of ourselves discussing where we want it go lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Nice trend at 06z: Yep less inland lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not another late capture like Jan15 but we’re getting ahead of ourselves discussing where we want it go lol. Your concerns are probably valid if this one follows the seasonal trend so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Let’s keep the big signal there for another 3 days before Ray and I duke it out over placement of capture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, George001 said: Yep less inland lows Its because the N stream is catching it later, so it hooks into the cape instead of LI now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Will, what is up with the Cornel climo site? Is it having issues? I just checked it, seems ok to me? What issue were you having? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: Your concerns are probably valid if this one follows the seasonal trend so far. Ideally everyone gets crushed like feb13 but we know the rarity of it, usually some areas get porked and thats been this area going on a decade. I’d like to say “we are due” but weather doesn’t really work that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ideally everyone gets crushed like feb13 but we know the rarity of it, usually some areas get porked and thats been this area going on a decade. I’d like to say “we are due” but weather doesn’t really work that way. The Feb13's unfortunately don't grow on trees, Generally someone does get screwed on most all these events, But some live in areas where that's the risk, Many forget though when they are blinded by foggy goggles or want to toss any model that don't give the results their looking for. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ideally everyone gets crushed like feb13 but we know the rarity of it, usually some areas get porked and thats been this area going on a decade. I’d like to say “we are due” but weather doesn’t really work that way. I just want a good storm. I don't mind a rain to paste situation...you guys can get buried. Just don't tuck this into BDR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ideally everyone gets crushed like feb13 but we know the rarity of it, usually some areas get porked and thats been this area going on a decade. I’d like to say “we are due” but weather doesn’t really work that way. Gonna need to see some larger changes IMHO to get a widespread hit like a Feb '13....the synoptics are pretty ugly for the CP, whereas in Feb '13 they weren't. That's why that storm had like 18" of paste east of the CF and 30" west. Anyone to the east of a hypothetical CF in this storm is raining. Best bet for a widespread hit is to get something that starts off as snow over interior and then as the storm bombs over or east of a place like ACK, it flips the CP to paste and they get croaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I just want a good storm. I don't mind a rain to paste situation...you guys can get buried. Just don't tuck this into BDR. I'll take a left hook into EWB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Gonna need to see some larger changes IMHO to get a widespread hit like a Feb '13....the synoptics are pretty ugly for the CP, whereas in Feb '13 they weren't. That's why that storm had like 18" of paste east of the CF and 30" west. Anyone to the east of a hypothetical CF in this storm is raining. Best bet for a widespread hit is to get something that starts off as snow over interior and then as the storm bombs over or east of a place like ACK, it flips the CP to paste and they get croaked. That works. I’m not looking for a jack. Just bring the meat into the region. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ideally everyone gets crushed like feb13 but we know the rarity of it, usually some areas get porked and thats been this area going on a decade. I’d like to say “we are due” but weather doesn’t really work that way. Couple ways to look at it because I have had well below average snowfall every season for a half decade, so you could argue my area is "due".....but right, weather doesn't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just gazing at the 12z ICON even missing some panels i would have to say that someone is getting croaked on there verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Just gazing at the 12z ICON even missing some panels i would have to say that someone is getting croaked on there verbatim. That’s a sweet h5 look. Icon tends to be weird on the surface panels but man that would send mid level goodies way west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s a sweet h5 look. Icon tends to be weird on the surface panels but man that would send mid level goodies way west. 00z run looked like it had mid level goods west, with lower level deformation maybe with a CF near my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s a sweet h5 look. Icon tends to be weird on the surface panels but man that would send mid level goodies way west. I never get into that model very deep other then just looking at the surface on occasion, I generally don't even look at it at all but this one has peaked my interest unlike Saturday's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s a sweet h5 look. Icon tends to be weird on the surface panels but man that would send mid level goodies way west. Yeah, that looks good for out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: I never get into that model very deep other then just looking at the surface on occasion, I generally don't even look at it at all. Big potential brings out all the models. Paging the Australian and French models next… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Big potential brings out all the models. Paging the Australian and French models next… lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: lol That is realistic IMO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is realistic IMO. Yep Blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 I like that it hooks in from south of the islands and not south of Long Island...that is where I was saying this was headed as far trend with later capture. WNE just need to hope trend is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is realistic IMO. From your lips to WOR hips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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