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March Medium/Long Range Thread: The Empire Strikes Back


stormtracker
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I'm going by op scenario which I'm praying is a northerly outlier

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If I wanted any model to be over amplifying the initial wave at this range, it’d be the OP Euro.

Rooting for that EPS mean depiction all day long.


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If I wanted any model to be over amplifying the initial wave at this range, it’d be the OP Euro.

Rooting for that EPS mean depiction all day long.


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Yep better that op now is more north than eps. In fact if the euro gave us a big snow tonight but eps was north of it...it be more unsettling!

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3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

A Miller B in a nina should be normal but this winter you'd hardly expect that, lol But March 2018 sure had one that left us with wind (in fact it was 5 years ago Thursday I believe...I posted about the wind knocking down a stop sign!)

Mar 1 2018 was very windy, caused a variety of damage, I watched it I was still living there in Dale City at the time.

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The GFS op is still phasing in too much of the NS energy associated with the vort lobe in western Canada. The GEFS has been depicting a similar degree of interaction, but backed off some at 0z. The end result was improved. Subtle differences in these wave interactions make big differences later on with the outcome. Long way to go.

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6 hours ago, Heisy said:

Don’t think I’ve seen this big of a difference between these two models at this range in my entire life. One is obviously wrong, likely gfs since euro has support from Ukie and icon

5127ef05e0f03e1df613422d0752bef0.gif


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This is purely anecdotal and very much isolated to winter weather events, but ever since the the major upgrade in 2019, the GFS has been kicking the euro's ass when it comes to these long range disagreements.

Look at the last storm.

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11 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

This is purely anecdotal and very much isolated to winter weather events, but ever since the the major upgrade in 2019, the GFS has been kicking the euro's ass when it comes to these long range disagreements.

Look at the last storm.

I am not sure the verification scores say that.  Too lazy to look back but I thought someone posted this a while back.  

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23 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Ok so not THAT different. Primary into OH, then maybe redevelop somewhere off the coast. 

Putting aside what we want to happen do you see the primary trending south based on the h5?  Is that even possible?  Seems like we haven’t seen any recent guidance that does that.  We’ve seen it weaken from the CO cuter but that’s about it

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5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Putting aside what we want to happen do you see the primary trending south based on the h5?  Is that even possible?  Seems like we haven’t seen any recent guidance that does that.  We’ve seen it weaken from the CO cuter but that’s about it

Maybe with a stronger 50/50 we get more confluence. 

But if the wave ejects from the W too strong/amped, it can’t trend S 

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12Z ICON gives us another way to fail. Transfer to the south and too far off coast….But I would rather fail this way and like the south trend in transfer.  It is progressive because there is another wave now kicking it out…update:  second wave washes out to the south.  I don’t think the ICON can handle the pattern.  But SER is  not the issue this run.

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The pattern is still progressing as I expected but about 48-72 hours slower. This isn’t a can kick really it’s just that the initial wave is going to be slower and more amplified. Whether it’s over the upper Midwest or off New England, that more amplified wave 1 slows down the pattern progression. So the next handoff from the pac, wave 2, looks more like the 17-20 v 14-16th. Yes I know that’s a big deal because if the time of year but it is what it is.  
 

It’s hard for me to post images where I am but if you look at the gefs and eps on March 16 you can see the next wave ejecting from the west but this time with lower heights in front of it and the SER gone.  That’s why that is the better threat. Plain and simple. 
 

The first wave ejects with too much warmth left over from the previous pattern in front of it.  So we can kiss the primary and any WAA snow scenarios goodbye. That leaves us needing a perfect transfer and secondary solution. How often does that work out here any time of year?  Possible yes. Likely no. There are way more win scenarios with wave 2.  
 

So far no ens guidance is indicating ridging issues in front of wave 2.  The fail would be if we start to see too much separation between wave 1 and 2 and we begin to see a SER start to show between those waves. As soon as that trend starts it’s game over and I’ll begin to write my book. But there is reason to believe with the pac forcing opposite what its been due to a high amp mjo 8/1 this time will be different. If it’s not I have the perfect conclusion to my novel. 

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