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Jan 19-20: Hoosier is not allowed to start this thread


mimillman
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5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

This title is money

This timeframe is actually farther out than when I started my thread.  But RC brought up a good point.  That previous event really was a thread the needle, while this one is not so dependent on northern stream phasing.  So maybe relatively higher confidence in it occurring (in general, not specifically for someone's backyard)

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Ricky

While this system is at a range (around day 5) in which fairly
large run to run variability is common, the 12z 1/14 global
operational models were in pretty good agreement in the big
picture details of the synoptic pattern and the entire area seeing
precipitation starting Wednesday night into early Thursday. Since
a distinct majority of ensemble members also indicate a favorable
storm track to spread precip. across the area, continue to feel
comfortable with the likely PoPs offered by the NBM.

A strong enough synoptic system (which is currently favored at
this vantage point), in addition to good large scale ascent, can
be expected to draw a plume of well above normal PWATs northward.
Thus regardless of precipitation type, a solid precip. producer
for this time of year remains in the offing. The antecedent air
mass will be marginally but sufficiently cold for wet snow,
particularly for locales near and north of I-80. The exact track
and strength of the low will determine how much of the area will
see accumulating snow, with overall probabilities higher the farther
north you go per most recent model and ensemble member and mean
progs. The high PWATs and mixing ratios, plus the aforementioned
strong large scale forcing are a concern for moderate to heavy
snow rates.

In summary, the threat for impactful winter weather in the form
of heavy/wet accumulating snow for at least portions of the area
has continued to tick upward, again with important caveats of this
being about 5 days out. Stay tuned to later forecast updates for
the Wednesday night-Thursday period. A colder (though not
exceptionally cold for late January) and active pattern looks to
continue heading into late January per solid ensemble consistency
out in the medium-long range.
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5 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

00z Euro has CR to Madison cashing in quite nicely, much like back in December.  QC to Chicago points east continue the screwage.  Hope for a bump southeast.

 

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

 

 

5 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

00z Euro has CR to Madison cashing in quite nicely, much like back in December.  QC to Chicago points east continue the screwage.  Hope for a bump southeast.

Euro is an toss. Too amped and has been playing this game early on for years, It'll have this over Knoxville by game day. The UKMET agrees with Alek.

sn10_006h-imp.conus.png

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6 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

00z Euro has CR to Madison cashing in quite nicely, much like back in December.  QC to Chicago points east continue the screwage.  Hope for a bump southeast.

Don't expect a bump southeast.  In fact, the overnight models are trending nw.  The Euro jumped nw significantly.  Even the 06z EPS shifted most of the snow nw of Cedar Rapids.  The heavy band is now Nebraska through northeast Iowa.

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This one isn't over for the Chicago area, though the Euro/EPS do highlight the concern in this setup. Mild/marginal antecedent air mass and lack of blocking suggest the last couple cycles of the Euro are certainly plausible scenarios. Still far enough out, plus other guidance supporting a colder scenario is a good reason to take a wait and see approach for now. That said, would prefer to see a tick back colder from the 12z Euro/EPS.



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If the band shifts NW to MSP will believe it. Otherwise weakening SE track has 4 days (an eternity model time) to materialize.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

This one isn't over for the Chicago area, though the Euro/EPS do highlight the concern in this setup. Mild/marginal antecedent air mass and lack of blocking suggest the last couple cycles of the Euro are certainly plausible scenarios. Still far enough out, plus other guidance supporting a colder scenario is a good reason to take a wait and see approach for now. That said, would prefer to see a tick back colder from the 12z Euro/EPS.


 

Whoever wouldn't prefer to see it tick colder doesn't belong here lol. Gfs is starting to fizzle it out as it heads east. Trends die hard. Hopefully we get a respectable storm somewhere other than the upper midwest.

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One of the factors in this setup that's a wildcard is what's likely to be a tremendous amount of convection in the warm sector (as an aside, looks nasty and probably headed for MDT for the Gulf States).

An initial double barrelled low pressure setup adds to the complexity and uncertainty of the synoptic evolution in terms of the eventual track of the consolidated surface low. Warm sector convection can cause constructive or destructive interference with the mass fields and there's nothing right now that can provide confidence in either direction.

There's also likely to be a very pronounced dry slot, so the farther north the system, the earlier the precip. transitions to drizzle closer to the path of the sfc low. We might see near separation of the warm conveyor belt and cold conveyor belt (deformation area) precip given the already pronounced dry slot being modeled plus the potential for convection to further mess with things.



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6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

One of the factors in this setup that's a wildcard is what's likely to be a tremendous amount of convection in the warm sector (as an aside, looks nasty and probably headed for MDT for the Gulf States).

An initial double barrelled low pressure setup adds to the complexity and uncertainty of the synoptic evolution in terms of the eventual track of the consolidated surface low. Warm sector convection can cause constructive or destructive interference with the mass fields and there's nothing right now that can provide confidence in either direction.

There's also likely to be a very pronounced dry slot, so the farther north the system, the earlier the precip. transitions to drizzle closer to the path of the sfc low. We might see near separation of the warm conveyor belt and cold conveyor belt (deformation area) precip given the already pronounced dry slot being modeled plus the potential for convection to further mess with things.


 

Obviously southern convection can rob cold sector precip, but can it also force the low to form/kinda tug it more south or straight east as it moves along?

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