Harry Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Can you image the range of model solutions we'd be forced to endure with the '78 mega-merger scenario Or the board crashing because EC Weenies were already salivating at Feb 5th on LR runs? I remember the east coast 78 blizz. I was in Philly when it hit but had to go back home to DC.. Woke up thinking not going anywhere and then my crazy ass uncle showed up. Ugh. So yeah I got to spend a part of that crawling on i95 back to DC. The snow let up just before we hit Baltimore.. Thankfully PD I made up for it a year later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Icon goin to be farther east again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 27 minutes ago, Baum said: oddly, i still think this will be a memorable event and NWS offices will have been justified in the early lead time watches. I'm definitely still impressed with the intense cold blowing in. Gonna be pretty wicked out there Thu eve with 40mph gusts and temps pushing -10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: I'm definitely still impressed with the intense cold blowing in. Gonna be pretty wicked out there Thu eve with 40mph gusts and temps pushing -10. So are you going out in it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, Harry said: I remember the east coast 78 blizz. I was in Philly when it hit but had to go back home to DC.. Woke up thinking not going anywhere and then my crazy ass uncle showed up. Ugh. So yeah I got to spend a part of that crawling on i95 back to DC. The snow let up just before we hit Baltimore.. Thankfully PD I made up for it a year later. Sounds memorable, lol. Here ya go (from IWX's update. Nice wind vector for yby) Additional snow accumulations are expected near Lake Michigan through Sunday in west-northwest wind favored snow belts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Sounds memorable, lol. Here ya go (from IWX's update. Nice wind vector for yby) Additional snow accumulations are expected near Lake Michigan through Sunday in west-northwest wind favored snow belts. Thankfully back then the big storms were hitting and kinda followed me to the coast and thus see 87-88, 89, etc. Not gonna lie but part of me will take the wind but with 18+ amounts to see how people respond around here vs back there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, Harry said: So are you going out in it? Not if I can help it lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: I'm definitely still impressed with the intense cold blowing in. Gonna be pretty wicked out there Thu eve with 40mph gusts and temps pushing -10. time lapse video of the frontal passage, pls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, sbnwx85 said: Hoping everyone is preparing for possible power outages with this system and frigid cold...even areas that don't get a lot of snow. We lost power during the November 5th wind event with winds between 60 and 70 mph. This event won't be as strong but with the cold temps any power outages could become a big problem if you can't keep warm. Had a 2 day outage in S. Bend after the ice storm in '02. Totally sucked and the cold following was mild by these standards. Ohio in '78 outages were a matter of life and death. Watching that youtube vid and that one guy living in a mobile home said he hadn't lost power, but wind was blowing snow right thru the seals on his windows and furnace wasn't able to keep it warm inside. He made a make-shift huddle zone inside a closet and used a candle in a can to keep that little room in the 50's. With outside clothes he was able to survive that way. And again, his power wasn't even out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 00z RGEM to 48h looks like a storm recovery trend may be slowly underway? An interesting night of model watching lies ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Not if I can help it lol Tbh, no way I could deal with the sh*t The Plains deal with in terms of arctic plunges and bitter WC's. Warm and toasty in The Mitt works just fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, Roger Smith said: 00z RGEM to 48h looks like a storm recovery trend may be slowly underway? An interesting night of model watching lies ahead. Just lose that northern bs and all will be good for most.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Early trends are... not great, unless you want it to snow in Cleveland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Nrmnd DTX, gonna ride the Accu-maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 All I can say is, Michigan posters, it will be interesting watching your reaction tomorrow when this trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: It has a lot to do with a wave that rounds the trough and amplifies while in the Plains, with the effects carrying through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes. This leads to the elongated SLP it has across those areas as well, and the further north look as well...Before the whole thing finally takes off across Michigan/Ontario. I'm still a bit suspicious of how far north the 00z NAM is with the primary surface low during its main development though given the location of the strongest upper level diffluence presented in the model (and also in the 18z Euro, which was the more impressive solution). Such a difference could make or a break a major storm for many areas, particularly in Michigan/NW OH/N IN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 0Z gfs coming in slightly west and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 0Z gfs coming in slightly west and strongerIndeed it did.It actually had the opposite trend of the 0z NAM/RGEM/ICON.Main trough was less positive tilt, and the main was was a bit faster around the base of the trough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 20 minutes ago, mimillman said: All I can say is, Michigan posters, it will be interesting watching your reaction tomorrow when this trend continues Was already in the cellar once. I'm very familiar. Pretty sure we'll all end up ok in the end. Powerhouse storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Gfs gives me a nice reacharound band, but this has to be the most beautiful snow-hole I've ever seen modeled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Gino27 said: Gfs gives me a nice reacharound GFS has SLP bouncing around by hundreds of mile like a ping-pong ball, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman33 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Ride GFS Kuchera! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 0z GFS QPF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Someone had to for posterity sake. Any ideas on a ratio will be 10-1 or higher?\\ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 0Z GFS on 10:1 or Kuchera is probably the most spread the wealth possible, would be a widespread blizzard with the wind its progging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Gonna say 4" here roughly near ORD with some wicked winds & cold, can't go thru the emotional rollercoaster again like the GFS wants me to jump on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Indeed it did.It actually had the opposite trend of the 0z NAM/RGEM/ICON.Main trough was less positive tilt, and the main was was a bit faster around the base of the trough..The 0z GEM is in the main camp.SE bump once again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The 0z GEM is in the main camp. SE bump once again. . When I’m rooting for the GFS to pull a late-game coup, I feel like that’s similar to betting on a one-legged man in a track & field race. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 0Z GEM meanwhile with a slight east shift, but does give more snow overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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