Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm

[frostfern]

Welp.  Hope this is an overshoot and not a trend.

[Kaner88]

Euro looking a little more negatively tilted by Hour 84 as the energy ejects into the Plains, which should favor a more westward solution

[frostfern]

3 minutes ago, LansingWeather said:

I was thinking with the GFS moving west, the EURO will move east to Cleveland lol

I will lol. Models will probably continue to  us until inside 12 hours.

[Kaner88]

0z Euro (10:1 ratios) thru Fri. afternoon

[LansingWeather]

4 minutes ago, frostfern said:

I will lol. Models will probably continue to  us until inside 12 hours.

For sure, but I know this area. I am almost always let down by a storm. Usually bombs out and goes over IL/WI or completely dies off and is a nothing-burger. Thats a big reason I moved out of this area.

[sbnwx85]

Surface low still ends up over SBN on this run.

[mimillman]

Euro is almost on top of the 12z run. You could argue it’s a touch further west earlier on. Most notable difference is slightly warmer near the SLP, less QPF near the SLP, and an expansion of WPF northwest.

You want to see an end to westward shifts on the GFS with tomorrow’s suite and the Euro to hold.

[hawkeye_wx]

The Euro ends up weaker (for western areas), less snow across the board compared to the 12z run.  The GFS was a bit of a fluke as the rest of the model sweet is more east and either less amped or delayed amp.  For Iowa, the Euro is much tamer than the GFS's historic blizzard.

[frostfern]

https://media.tenor.com/XeoO92P0kQQAAAAd/ice-cream.gif

Someone post this.  F’n file size limit.

[Radtechwxman]

Euro still occluding the low mostly over MI versus much further nw over IN/IL like GFS. Euro has been very consistent with this so probably trust it more as much as I would love goofus to be right with blizzard of the century. Ha. 

[Brian D]

Good luck guys!!   

[Kaner88]

Kuchera map *and* 10:1 map for Chicagoland, fwiw

[andyhb]

Matures too late on the Euro.

[RCNYILWX]

Because the Euro hasn't changed much from the overall evolution, definitely deserves the most weight in forecast thinking. That's not to say that meaningful changes can't happen, but that the GFS is more grain of salt worthy tonight. Now that the models have honed in on the big picture, not all that surprising the GFS is now the most amped and aggressive with QPF and snow, considering how it handled the February 2022 systems.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[cyclone77]

Euro a pretty big killjoy for the dvn cwa after the GFS/ICON runs earlier.  

Gut tells me this will be a powdery 3-5" event here with high winds and extreme cold, whilst Hoosier/Chicagoland cash in yet again ala GHD3.

[Radtechwxman]

Euro solution is definitely more of a downer. Still a good event with high winds and some decent snow here but really miss out on all the wraparound snow as the low occludes too ne of me so totals are significantly less than gfs obviously. I knew gfs solution was likely not to occur but definitely was hoping to see euro bump towards that a bit at least with the low occluding more nw to cash in on deformation band more. Still time for small details to work out. I bet nam will have a real humdinger of a storm. Lol

[Harry]

After 21+ in November I know damn well another 18+ snowstorm is not happening this winter. Still it looks to be a wild storm either way. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

You can tell a storm has you peak interested when you're staying up for even the 06Z runs lol

[SchaumburgStormer]

55 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Euro a pretty big killjoy for the dvn cwa after the GFS/ICON runs earlier.  

Gut tells me this will be a powdery 3-5" event here with high winds and extreme cold, whilst Hoosier/Chicagoland cash in yet again ala GHD3.

It’s bonkers that we are “disappointed” with advisory-to-low end warning snows shown on a model a couple days before Christmas. 

[RCNYILWX]

Once the GFS jumped strongly to the general idea of the Euro today, it consistently depicted 2-2.5"+ QPF totals in the max swath. Absent lake enhancement, QPF totals like that are very rare in a winter system in the Midwest. As alluded to in my previous post, we saw the GFS do this with both February systems last winter.

The 12z ECMWF certainly had a broader swath of high QPF totals than the 00z run tonight, but still those high totals on this side of the lake were in the 1-1.75, locally 2" range.

When you have the GFS spitting out obscene QPF and add in the way overdone Kuchera ratios, it creates unrealistic expectations. The 12z ECMWF was probably a realistic best case scenario.

[Radtechwxman]

19 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

It’s bonkers that we are “disappointed” with advisory-to-low end warning snows shown on a model a couple days before Christmas. 

Live and die by the GFS. Lol

[mimillman]

29 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Once the GFS jumped strongly to the general idea of the Euro today, it consistently depicted 2-2.5"+ QPF totals in the max swath. Absent lake enhancement, QPF totals like that are very rare in a winter system in the Midwest. As alluded to in my previous post, we saw the GFS do this with both February systems last winter.

The 12z ECMWF certainly had a broader swath of high QPF totals than the 00z run tonight, but still those high totals on this side of the lake were in the 1-1.75, locally 2" range.

When you have the GFS spitting out obscene QPF and add in the way overdone Kuchera ratios, it creates unrealistic expectations. The 12z ECMWF was probably a realistic best case scenario.


 

Thank you. Some people have forgotten climo clearly.

These systems also tend to get drier as we know as we approach go time. There are exceptions of course, but high likelihood we shave QPF from here.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

06Z GFS is even further west

[A-L-E-K]

Cant win em all, at least those euro runs were fun to look at

[Baum]

looks like a good ole fashioned midwest snowstorm just before Christmas. Nice.

 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

The GFS has been all over the place for the last 24 hours of runs fwiw, we'll just have to see if it starts going back east 

[mimillman]

DSM hoisting early watches

[mimillman]

GEFS west as well…a GFS coup would be funny

[jlauderdal]

The euro and gfs were consistent with Ian and were both wrong inside of 24 hours, gfs did very well with Nicole....dont give up because these models aren't giving you what you want...the amount of gfs runs that get tossed with even well developed tropical systems would make your head spin...euro is far more consistent thus less runs tossed but of course consistency can also be consistently wrong through the life of a system....Madison to Detroit are in play for the jackpot, lets see if the gfs settles down today

[thunderbolt]

2 minutes ago, jlauderdal said:

The euro and gfs were consistent with Ian and were both wrong inside of 24 hours, gfs did very well with Nicole....dont give up because these models aren't giving you what you want...the amount of gfs runs that get tossed with even well developed tropical systems would make your head spin...euro is far more consistent thus less runs tossed but of course consistency can also be consistently wrong through the life of a system....Madison to Detroit are in play for the jackpot, lets see if the gfs settles down today

It might not settle down until WednesdayIt