Preliminarily ... a medium impact partial Miller B, Friday

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh i remember the 96 event now. Wasn’t that a two part or two storm deal that happened like back to back days?

Yes.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If that 3z to 12z Saturday am period played out like that I find it hard to believe that 495 toward 128 didn’t flip 

It almost certainly would flip right to the coast on that look....but again, big if. RGEM/GFS liked the idea....NAM didn't. We'll see if we can trend the Euro that direction today.

[Cold Miser]

On 12/13/2022 at 9:19 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The migrant workers in Albany area thought it was some sort of a curse and omen ..not joking 

lol. I never heard that.

[dryslot]

GGEM is paste bomb up here too yikes.

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Some tiny spot in the non populated woods of southern Hamilton county n.y. jackpots in that map.
Time to go chase.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

GGEM is paste bomb up here too yikes.

The big change for the CP of Maine on GGEM was last Nite at 0z , Flipped big time snowier ..this basically looks exactly like the 0z snow map to me for CP of Maine which is what you def wanna see , And it shaved a hair off N orh county At 12z

[STILL N OF PIKE]

For S NH I imagine the hills in Holsett to Goffstown even at 500’ down to Mont Vernon are lookin very pasty if this look keeps up . That added latitude N of Ash will help as well as the extra few hundred feet 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The big change for the CP of Maine on GGEM was last Nite at 0z , Flipped big time snowier ..this basically looks exactly like the 0z snow map to me for CP of Maine which is what you def wanna see , And it shaved a hair off N orh county At 12z

I could see some changes at 18z, Definitely when the Euro came out, But that's 3 model suites now where its improved so it looks to be a lock other then some wobbles or noise it seems, To get a rug pull at this stage would be an all time fail if that happened.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I could see some changes at 18z, Definitely when the Euro came out, But that's 3 model suites now where its improved so it looks to be a lock other then some wobbles or noise it seems, To get a rug pull at this stage would be an all time fail if that happened.

60 hrs out for Maine I could see another tic or two , but I do respect your opinion ..I was just surprised you would say all time model fail as the BL is still close and folks there will need rates . I do like when your confident in a trend , bodes well for many 

[tunafish]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

60 hrs out for Maine I could see another tic or two 

I would definitely like another tick or two on the coast here, just for some reassurance.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

For S NH I imagine the hills in Holsett to Goffstown even at 500’ down to Mont Vernon are lookin very pasty if this look keeps up . That added latitude N of Ash will help as well as the extra few hundred feet 

Even down here this could have a really interesting vertical snow gradient between 200 foot elevations and 6 or 700 feet.

i’m here in the Nashoba Valley area.  I think Townhall sets at 196 feet above sea level. God forbid there should ever be a Canary Island bifurcation event ‘cause the tsunami might do a Deep Impact up the Merrimack into this region  … Cross that bridge lol.

No but I wouldn’t be surprised if nearby FIT, 8 miles as the crow flies, is into heavy parachutes in the 600’ hills while we have cat paws here at townHall

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

60 hrs out for Maine I could see another tic or two , but I do respect your opinion ..I was just surprised you would say all time model fail as the BL is still close and folks there will need rates . I do like when your confident in a trend , bodes well for many 

Well, The folks on the edges have the most to win/lose here, That's where elevation is really going to matter, Its not like if it doesn't snow, They may pelt or zr, I thinks its going to be snow or rain, And nothing else in between.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Even down here this could have a really interesting vertical snow gradient between 200 foot elevations and 6 or 700 feet.

i’m here in the Nashoba Valley area.  I think Townhall sets at 196 feet above sea level. God forbid there should ever be a Canary Island bifurcation event ‘cause the tsunami might do a Deep Impact up the Merrimack into this region  … Cross that bridge lol.

No but I wouldn’t be surprised if nearby FIT, 8 miles as the crow flies, is into heavy parachutes in the 600’ hills while we have cat paws here at townHall

Ya Fit could have a silly gradient between western elevated areas and eastern. 
 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Even down here this could have a really interesting vertical snow gradient between 200 foot elevations and 6 or 700 feet.

i’m here in the Nashoba Valley area.  I think Townhall sets at 196 feet above sea level. God forbid there should ever be a Canary Island bifurcation event ‘cause the tsunami might do a Deep Impact up the Merrimack into this region  … Cross that bridge lol.

No but I wouldn’t be surprised if nearby FIT, 8 miles as the crow flies, is into heavy parachutes in the 600’ hills while we have cat paws here at townHall

Is this a deal where rates are going to be very important if any area has 850’s below 0c but 925’s modeled at .5c to 1 above and is looking to see snow 

[ineedsnow]

some models get precip in the hills before the main show gets here.. easterly flow causing it?

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya Fit could have a silly gradient between western elevated areas and eastern. 
 

 

Just need it to slide like 4 miles east so Leominster gets in on it.  They are in a valley

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

some models get precip in the hills before the main show gets here.. easterly flow causing it?

Yes.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is this a deal where rates are going to be very important if any area has 850’s below 0c but 925’s modeled at .5c to 1 above and is looking to see snow 

Models will under-do the snow in heavy lift...esp models that are hydrostatic. They kind of put an artificial cap on the dynamics. This is why we often see the model busts in those marginal events with very heavy precip....they can't quite capture the true dynamics going on. They are approximating it and the errors will become bigger the more dynamical a system is. That's why us mets have traditionally always said things like "if the dynamics are big, watch out....there could be surprises"......but it's hard to say when they will be that way versus more middling.

[ORH_wxman]

Wow...Ukie went insane for eastern areas overnight Saturday....joining the GFS.

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

20-burger in ORH county with that look....not forecasting that right now, but these slower "meandering eastward" type solutions have some pretty high positive bust potential in those areas...and maybe positive bust too for eastern MA coastal plain too if that collapse SE during CCB overnight Friday night happens....still a big if on that part. NAM didn't really show that, but GFS/RGEM did.

This is trying to steal some Dec 1992 luster back at the last moment.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I may have to run out to the curb and grab the Xmas tree and gifts before the trash collector takes them.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wow...Ukie went insane for eastern areas overnight Saturday....joining the GFS.

Ray just ate a 4000 calorie meal in excitement.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ray just ate a 4000 calorie meal in excitement.

I don't need a nice run to do that.

This is one of those events where I am that crappy dude loitering on that 350' hill up the street.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is trying to steal some Dec 1992 luster back at the last moment.

Yeah kind of like '92-lite....we never got the big ULL underneath us, but a little part of it getting squeezed underneath gives us the mini-version perhaps.

[dryslot]

Looks like all the models are on board now for some getting blitzed with paste.

[ORH_wxman]

GEFS ticked SE again too....getting kind of close to use ensemble clusters, but with some uncertainty still remaining, I find it interesting. Every model is moving toward the GFS right now

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wow...Ukie went insane for eastern areas overnight Saturday....joining the GFS.

Even here?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

GEFS ticked SE again too....getting kind of close to use ensemble clusters, but with some uncertainty still remaining, I find it interesting. Every model is moving toward the GFS right now

 

I heavily hedged towards the GFS and NAM on the First Call yesterday....maybe a first.

[ORH_wxman]

They also got stronger....which is what we want. You want to see this sfc low bomb out big time to collapse things SE as quickly as possible in the CCB stage

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Uncle Ukie’s 6” weenie line aiming straight across Merrimack valley into Rays Fanny