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Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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I know I've been around for merely a small fraction of how long you record keepers have been, but I'm pretty sure a map like this would turn our heads even in the Jan-Feb make up periods we've been having the last few years. But before Christmas? Fantasy or not, it's nice to see.

gfs_asnow_us_65.png

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13 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I know I've been around for merely a small fraction of how long you record keepers have been, but I'm pretty sure a map like this would turn our heads even in the Jan-Feb make up periods we've been having the last few years. But before Christmas? Fantasy or not, it's nice to see.

gfs_asnow_us_65.png

Love the big void over OHV/S GL's. Scraps and left-overs map compared to those west/NW

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3 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

I know I've been around for merely a small fraction of how long you record keepers have been, but I'm pretty sure a map like this would turn our heads even in the Jan-Feb make up periods we've been having the last few years. But before Christmas? Fantasy or not, it's nice to see.

gfs_asnow_us_65.png

Its nice to see WI is still in play for that storm next week. I figured it would cut way up into Canada. 

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5 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

You'd think this would be a great look in the MW/GL, given the mean trough being in a decent spot (a bit west) to avoid storms being suppressed.  But it seems like no Day 8+ fantasy storms are showing up on the op runs yet. 

Or, my interpretation of the map could be wrong...

GEFS/EPS at face value, it's one of the best looking potential Dec patterns in years. But that's at face value, and we know how ENS ended up doing a 180 for the period we are in now. So maybe cautious optimism, but there's a fine line between cold/active and CAD.

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GEFS/EPS at face value, it's one of the best looking potential Dec patterns in years. But that's at face value, and we know how ENS ended up doing a 180 for the period we are in now. So maybe cautious optimism, but there's a fine line between cold/active and CAD.
Yep, get that pattern within day 10 and it would be surprising to not get a solid event or two. Would think some vigorous clipper/hybrid type systems would be a decent bet too with that look, and those will not be well modeled at extended lead times either.

Regarding most recent ensemble runs, both the EPS and GEFS look solid, though would prefer the GEFS because it holds onto positive 500 mb height anomalies in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Both ensemble systems indicate the EPO ridge being far enough west to not point toward CAD at this time though as Joe noted it can be a fine line.
For the first Decembers since 2016-17, there's hope for winter weather prior to Christmas.

Main message is patience and try to stay away from the op runs out beyond day 7-8.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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Running a day or two later than I wanted to get this out, but nonetheless...

The middle 1/3rd of December (10-20th) will sort of be a transitional period. The well advertised Plains storm system for next week will be a rainer for many (Backside snow potential?), though there will most definitely be some accumulating snow across MN/WI/MI. That snow potential and the fact that any push of mild temperatures will be very muted/confined to the southern half of the sub-forum, will be thanks to the continued significant -NAO/Greenland block and associated 50/50 low that will be in place across the Northeast/Southeast Canada/adjacent Atlantic. So anyone that was onboard the mild for days or super mild temperatures train, be prepared to be derailed. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_barbs-0954400.thumb.png.0312dffcafc5aaf1da4dca6122881ea7.png

Beyond the aforementioned storm system for next week, the final half of this middle 1/3rd of December is when see things start to take shape. We will slide into an -EPO/-AO/-NAO/N to -PNA pattern, with a SWE occurring as well (SPV on the move from Siberia to Greenland. This should lead to an overall colder temperature pattern for the closing days of this middle of the month period, but whether it's CAD or cold and active is still TBD. This pattern as of now would then continue into Christmas week. As mentioned in another thread post, this is probably one of the best looking patterns on paper that the GEFS/EPS have shown in years for December. However, after the 180 flip for the pattern in the current period we are in, caution should definitely be taken. We'll see how it goes.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_barbs-1386400.thumb.png.18860405c8b20909d9fe391034726aaf.png

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well I guess the NAO is negative, specifically if think that one of the ways to express the NAO index is the SLP anomaly in Ponta Delgada, Azores Islands, minus the SLP anomaly in Iceland

 

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_1.png

 

and the AO index, which is effectively calculated by SLP (really, 1000mb heights) shows a very negative value today

 

 

AO index.jpg

 

December 1-8 analysis shows a strong negative NAO value and yet the eastern USA had higher than normal heights at 500mb

 

compday.V8gaVe7xBK.gif

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56 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

I'd much rather have the suppression that the GFS is selling this far out, than the big GLC at this point. 

Plenty of time for the ol'e NW turn and will our way into a Great lakes cutter

GFS verbatim looks like true CAD though.  

 

Why would you want cold and dry? If it ain't gonna snow, let it rain and torch. 

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24 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Why would you want cold and dry? If it ain't gonna snow, let it rain and torch. 

I'm not saying I do, or it will be.

I'm saying I'd rather have the model show that this far and have it back off a bit vs showing confluence setting up around I-80 as ND the we n hope it pushes further

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