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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The flow is a bit more compressed due to the closer proximity of the quasi-50-50 low. These subtle differences in spacing can make significant differences in outcome.

1671159600-5TRclS0cO2I.png

Blocking, deampllification and the 50/50 low  having a combined impact.

I guess this kind of happened with the PDII storm, but it wasn't this pronounced.

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19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Primary low stronger and further north, and all that HP across the top is a tad weaker. The ultimate outcome is still TBD with this one.

Yeah, that primary lp rotting away near the border of North Dakota does not bode well for us. The Euro has swapped places with the GFS and has some more favorable cold to the point where it's ~5F+ colder at the surface and 3-4C colder up at 850mb for a good bit of the general subforum at 6z Thursday, and it tracks the primary lp a good bit farther south. Still not too serviceable of an airmass, but still enough for frozen at onset. 

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21 minutes ago, Ji said:
23 minutes ago, CAPE said:
The coastal low on the 18z GFS takes a little more favorable track and deepens quicker. Rain changing to snow on the backside? Congrats NJ!
1671181200-g9X1zFk1p3c.png

What happened to that cad signature the gfs modeled 24 hours ago?

There is no antecedent cold air mass.  The storm only produces snow as the storm manufactures it's own cold air as it deepens and also pulls down more cold air down from the NNE. There is no cold high to the north just a block.  Places Mason Dixon Line NE have rain to snow as the storm slowly pulls away. 

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4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

There is no antecedent cold air mass.  The storm only produces snow as the storm manufactures it's own cold air as it deepens and also pulls down more cold air down from the NNE. There is no cold high to the north just a block.  Places Mason Dixon Line NE have rain to snow as the storm slowly pulls away. 

I think pretty much everyone here realizes this is a marginal cold setup, with relatively low chances for significant frozen. 

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I have nothing useful to add except that It’s so good to be tracking storms again with this crew. Glad to see that people haven’t changed over the past year.    I’m always the optimist when it comes to snow storms, so I’m happy for something to track the next 2 weeks and hopefully more to come in the New Year! 

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2 hours ago, anotherman said:

Between Ji and his new understudy you’d think we were on the verge of 60s through the end of the year.

I must have blocked them both. Because I have seen none of it. If you told me in September that I would be looking at that -NAO block in December I would have chugged a bottle of Crown. Give me a DEC -NAO and I will take my chances the rest of the winter. And I dont care about base states or anything else. My personal experience is a cold -NAO December leads to happiness for my area the rest of the winter. The rest of you? I dont really care. But it is what it is. 

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1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

Track sucks. Needs to redevelop further south. Still time.

Probably to trend worse. Terrible setup. The trend was a little less terrible but we need leaps better and the changes from here on out are likely to be warmer and to the north. I hope I am somehow wrong. This has always been unlikely and continues to show us how it can fail. 

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I just clicked through the 18z for laughs…really nothing at all.  Not even fun fantasy storms.  You’d never know it might get good soon looking at that.   

It does seem to be a wave behind this one...didn't make it far enough north this run, but was north of 12z. Day 9/10 of course...I think we'll see some more waves come through. Doesn't SEEM to be cold/dry overall.

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8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It does seem to be a wave behind this one...didn't make it far enough north this run, but was north of 12z. Day 9/10 of course...I think we'll see some more waves come through. Doesn't SEEM to be cold/dry overall.

  Way out there but it has  Xmas Eve in the 60s on the op…2m temp anomaly is white hot.  Need to look at GEFS

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