TSSN+ Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Wonky depiction - something tells me it doesn’t happen as shown. 5 days out so ya probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: The flow is a bit more compressed due to the closer proximity of the quasi-50-50 low. These subtle differences in spacing can make significant differences in outcome. Blocking, deampllification and the 50/50 low having a combined impact. I guess this kind of happened with the PDII storm, but it wasn't this pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 19 minutes ago, CAPE said: Primary low stronger and further north, and all that HP across the top is a tad weaker. The ultimate outcome is still TBD with this one. Yeah, that primary lp rotting away near the border of North Dakota does not bode well for us. The Euro has swapped places with the GFS and has some more favorable cold to the point where it's ~5F+ colder at the surface and 3-4C colder up at 850mb for a good bit of the general subforum at 6z Thursday, and it tracks the primary lp a good bit farther south. Still not too serviceable of an airmass, but still enough for frozen at onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 As I said the other day, all our hopes and dreams are mostly dependent on random interactions between waves. Man what a weird hobby lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 21 minutes ago, Ji said: 23 minutes ago, CAPE said: The coastal low on the 18z GFS takes a little more favorable track and deepens quicker. Rain changing to snow on the backside? Congrats NJ! What happened to that cad signature the gfs modeled 24 hours ago? There is no antecedent cold air mass. The storm only produces snow as the storm manufactures it's own cold air as it deepens and also pulls down more cold air down from the NNE. There is no cold high to the north just a block. Places Mason Dixon Line NE have rain to snow as the storm slowly pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: There is no antecedent cold air mass. The storm only produces snow as the storm manufactures it's own cold air as it deepens and also pulls down more cold air down from the NNE. There is no cold high to the north just a block. Places Mason Dixon Line NE have rain to snow as the storm slowly pulls away. I think pretty much everyone here realizes this is a marginal cold setup, with relatively low chances for significant frozen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Can we tighten up the the discussion here and move the banter to another thread? 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 I haven’t looked into the individuals members yet but MSLP redevelops over NC as coastal takes over. Should be some hits in the mix based on this. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: I haven’t looked into the individuals members yet but MSLP redevelops over NC as coastal takes over. Should be some hits in the mix based on this. Unfortunately, no good hits lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 OP with two ensembles on it's side, are you feeling lucky punk? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 I didn't even know it was rain. We average 3" of snow in December, so that's important to remember.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 I have nothing useful to add except that It’s so good to be tracking storms again with this crew. Glad to see that people haven’t changed over the past year. I’m always the optimist when it comes to snow storms, so I’m happy for something to track the next 2 weeks and hopefully more to come in the New Year! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 13 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: Unfortunately, no good hits lmao Lol. I would of thought with the mean track it would of looked better than that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Lol. I would have thought with the mean track it would have looked better than that. Same, the track looks great. Just need cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 2 hours ago, anotherman said: Between Ji and his new understudy you’d think we were on the verge of 60s through the end of the year. I must have blocked them both. Because I have seen none of it. If you told me in September that I would be looking at that -NAO block in December I would have chugged a bottle of Crown. Give me a DEC -NAO and I will take my chances the rest of the winter. And I dont care about base states or anything else. My personal experience is a cold -NAO December leads to happiness for my area the rest of the winter. The rest of you? I dont really care. But it is what it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: Same, the track looks great. Just need cold Does it? Have we ever gotten a good storm with a low pressure tracking into the Great Lakes before it redevelops off the coast? That's just way too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Does it? Have we ever gotten a good storm with a low pressure tracking into the Great Lakes before it redevelops off the coast? That's just way too far north. I'm talking about the position of the secondary low, not the primary low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 How about the wave after this one? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: How about the wave after this one? How about the drink after this one!? Oh whoops. Wrong thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 30 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: Same, the track looks great. Just need cold Track sucks. Needs to redevelop further south. Still time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 fear not.. Dec19-29 is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: Track sucks. Needs to redevelop further south. Still time. Probably to trend worse. Terrible setup. The trend was a little less terrible but we need leaps better and the changes from here on out are likely to be warmer and to the north. I hope I am somehow wrong. This has always been unlikely and continues to show us how it can fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Lows in the bay don’t happen much in winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 39 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Track sucks. Needs to redevelop further south. Still time. I just clicked through the 18z for laughs…really nothing at all. Not even fun fantasy storms. You’d never know it might get good soon looking at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Americanwx: Bipolar anonymous. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I just clicked through the 18z for laughs…really nothing at all. Not even fun fantasy storms. You’d never know it might get good soon looking at that. It does seem to be a wave behind this one...didn't make it far enough north this run, but was north of 12z. Day 9/10 of course...I think we'll see some more waves come through. Doesn't SEEM to be cold/dry overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: It does seem to be a wave behind this one...didn't make it far enough north this run, but was north of 12z. Day 9/10 of course...I think we'll see some more waves come through. Doesn't SEEM to be cold/dry overall. Way out there but it has Xmas Eve in the 60s on the op…2m temp anomaly is white hot. Need to look at GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 12 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Americanwx: Bipolar anonymous. I think a solid hit of snow will do the psychology here a lot of good. Been a loooooong time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Way out there but it has Xmas Eve in the 60s on the op…2m temp anomaly is white hot. Need to look at GEFS Yellow orange hot 2m on GEFS. Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Yellow orange hot 2m on GEFS. Looking good. Hr 354...lol I have a hard time seeing it being that warm given the pattern we're heading into. Not worth looking that deep into at that range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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