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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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20 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

^thats impressive cold….not so much for us But you gotta like our chances

 

18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It looks dare i say ideal? We dont want the core of anomalous cold centered over us. Those maps in tandem are ideal...there, I said it.

Agree with Wiggum. Unless you just have a bet the Bay freezes over you don’t actually want the core of that kind of cold centered on top of us.  Storms are going to ride the boundary. You want to be on the cold side but not too far. That’s an ideal look Imo. 

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1 minute ago, anotherman said:

Between Ji and his new understudy you’d think we were on the verge of 60s through the end of the year.

Ji hasn’t been that bad Imo, just a frustrated post now and then when a specific storm doesn’t work out. The other guy though…is just straight trolling and contributes absolutely nothing of substance ever. 

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ji hasn’t been that bad Imo, just a frustrated post now and then when a specific storm doesn’t work out. The other guy though…is just straight trolling and contributes absolutely nothing of substance ever. 

Have you seen him in the tropical threads? This isn’t even his best trolling 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a shame there is literally zero deep cold anywhere to help. Mid level temp maps look terrible. Lol. You know there's something really wrong when a blocked surface low totally ignores the baroclinic zone off the coast because it's impotent. So what's left is a complicated  mess both at the surface and upper levels. Our "complicated" batting avg needs a pinch hitter or something 

Exactly what I was thinking when I saw those 850mb temps and the overall setup.  It's an interesting evolution of a storm, to be sure (if it plays out that way), but for anyone outside the western and north-central parts of the forum, you cannot realistically expect to see much (if any?) accumulating snow.  I'm speaking from the metro DC area, just north of the Beltway, so one's mileage may vary.  There is zero decent cold air leading into it.  But...that said...I think if it works out many of us can at least maybe see some flakes after it goes by.

 

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea, but they look like we should expect for this type of system. Primary into the Midwest in mid December without an arctic airmass in place…not the way we win. Is it within the realm of possible sure, if we get super lucky in every detail, but we need more than just a block  to snow. It gets annoying everytime we get blocking and then some assume every storm has to be snow suddenly. We rain during a blocking pattern all the time. Maybe even still more than snow!  We need blocking AND the right synoptic setup. This ain’t it. Root for a fluke but don’t expect anything from this setup. It’s a bonus. Our better chances come after. Waves between the 20-25 need to be watched closely imo. 

Again, this is the correct attitude I think.  Sure a fluke would be nice but for much of the sub forum that's looking like a cold rain and maybe (??) some bit of snow either right at the start and/or at the end.  I think it's just "too early" in the season with no real cold already in place.  If it were farther along in the season, might be a different story.

I'm kind of a lot more interested in what happens after this system, when we might actually have some real cold to deal with and other factors in our favor.

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4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Truth.

 

Unfortunately no one can understand his brilliance most of the time lol.

He has trouble articulating his thoughts in a coherent manner sometimes. He has been around a long time in this subforum and many of us remember his valuable contributions.

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31 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Truth.

 

Unfortunately no one can understand his brilliance most of the time lol.

I remember when he predicted a very mild winter and everyone got mad at him, and he turned out to be correct. 

He also nailed the historic 09-10 winter if I recall correctly. 

When I read his posts it comes off as confusing and flip-floppy, and I’m barely hanging onto his words most of the time. But his intelligence is definitely not in question.

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Unless my eyes are playing tricks on me, it looks like the models are starting to converge onto a solution where PA and north get some snow and most of this sub gets mostly a wintry mix/rain with little or no accumulations. 

Not enough cold air yet, particularly at 850.

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Just now, Ji said:
2 minutes ago, CAPE said:
The coastal low on the 18z GFS takes a little more favorable track and deepens quicker. Rain changing to snow on the backside? Congrats NJ!
1671181200-g9X1zFk1p3c.png

What happened to that cad signature the gfs modeled 24 hours ago?

Still there, just not cold enough. Sorry Ji

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Just now, Ji said:
2 minutes ago, CAPE said:
The coastal low on the 18z GFS takes a little more favorable track and deepens quicker. Rain changing to snow on the backside? Congrats NJ!
1671181200-g9X1zFk1p3c.png

What happened to that cad signature the gfs modeled 24 hours ago?

Primary low stronger and further north, and all that HP across the top is a tad weaker. The ultimate outcome is still TBD with this one.

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12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The coastal low on the 18z GFS takes a little more favorable track and deepens quicker. Rain changing to snow on the backside? Congrats NJ!

1671181200-g9X1zFk1p3c.png

Just feeling outside.. it's probably going to snow, Dec 19-29 especially (+pna makes such a big difference). 

I mentioned this to ORH in SNE subforum-3 before. 

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30 minutes ago, Amped said:

The ULL just spits out a piece of energy due east. The GFS gets more creative every year.

The flow is a bit more compressed(h5 vorticity is stretched out) due to the closer proximity of the quasi-50-50 low. These subtle differences in spacing/interaction can make significant differences in outcome.

1671159600-5TRclS0cO2I.png

1671159600-ofwRVk0VnpQ.png

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