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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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31 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB GFS through the weekend period, another wave or maybe it is still figuring out the first wave is going to stall like EURO?

D1ADEEC9-F981-40C1-ABE4-81679DD24CE7.png

Looks to me via the h5 vort charts that a lobe of that 50/50 remains trapped under the nao and regressed back and dives into the ull energizing the system. We just cant know at this point....very convoluted look. Could be 2 separate things or one drawn out event.

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I am mostly looking ahead(for my yard). The late week deal might work out for some, most likely inland and north I think ultimately.

Next week has “tragedy for many” written all over it lol. People should be setting hopes at “first flakes” or “first small accumulation” and not imagine some gaudy inland PA/NY snow totals shifted south 150 miles. But I know that’s not how we roll. I am getting increasingly concerned about flying home next Thursday evening…

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Next week has “tragedy for many” written all over it lol. People should be setting hopes at “first flakes” or “first small accumulation” and not imagine some gaudy inland PA/NY snow totals shifted south 150 miles. But I know that’s not how we roll. I am getting increasingly concerned about flying home next Thursday evening…

Agree with everything you said here especially the last part.  I was already looking at alternative flights home from San Diego that doesn’t have me land at 7p Thursday.

For the storm, I still think first flakes are a real possibility for many.  Favored locations inland possible for minor accumulations.

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Next week has “tragedy for many” written all over it lol. People should be setting hopes at “first flakes” or “first small accumulation” and not imagine some gaudy inland PA/NY snow totals shifted south 150 miles. But I know that’s not how we roll. I am getting increasingly concerned about flying home next Thursday evening…

Agreed, and posting those ridiculous clown snow maps wont help lol.

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5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Agree with everything you said here especially the last part.  I was already looking at alternative flights home from San Diego that doesn’t have me land at 7p Thursday.

For the storm, I still think first flakes are a real possibility for many.  Favored locations inland possible for minor accumulations.

Of course if somehow those gaudy snow totals DO shift south, can I rent a car and drive home…:yikes:

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Nice overview of the late week system/potential from Mount Holly in their morning AFD. I now have the generic rain/snow in my forecast Wed night into Friday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/..

Looking at the larger scale big picture, the main story for the long range will be a continuing blocking pattern remaining in place over the north Atlantic. This will help keep surface high pressure dominant over eastern Canada which will also have a tendency to force more of a southern storm track as (as opposed to storms riding up to our north and west). In terms of the forecast details, Tuesday through Wednesday look to remain dry and on the cool side with a continuing northerly flow due to the high to our north. Looking towards late next week, there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast especially with regards to a potential storm system. The deterministic GFS really downplays the storm potential as it shears out approaching shortwave energy approaching from the west. Meanwhile the GEM Global, ECMWF, and some of the GFS ensemble perturbations depict a large lumbering upper level trough approaching from the central CONUS with an associated surface low over the Great Lakes giving way to secondary low development off the coast. If this were to verify, it could mean a fairly significant coastal storm affecting the region by next Thursday into Friday. But even then, there are still questions regarding precip types (rain vs. snow) as temperatures will be marginal. The bottom line, late week storm threat still in play but a lot of uncertainty remains in the forecast. We continued to stay close to the NBM with this forecast update and carry likely POPs for Thursday into Thursday night.

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