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December 2022


dmillz25
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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Rare -NAO/AO with above average temps. That's definitely a result of agw warming up sea surface temperatures

It doesn't help that you have a crappy pacific which is far more important than a -NAO. 

This can also be the case of the models not figuring out the blocking in place. 

All we can do is model watch and see what happens 

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Rare -NAO/AO with above average temps. That's definitely a result of agw warming up sea surface temperatures

It doesn't help that you have a crappy pacific which is far more important than a -NAO. 

JB posted about 3 Decembers that were a "warm -NAO"   Dec 1996, Dec 1970 and another maybe in the 60's.    This could be one of them but let's hope not.  The warm water off the coast is another element that makes analogs somewhat less worthy....

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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

JB posted about 3 Decembers that were a "warm -NAO"   Dec 1996, Dec 1970 and another maybe in the 60's.    This could be one of them but let's hope not.  The warm water off the coast is another element that makes analogs somewhat less worthy....

People were comparing the upcoming pattern to 2010 .

 

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18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, you wouldn’t want that pattern to lock in. That’s what happened in 2012, 2001, and 1996. Hopefully, we do better than that. But at least the eastern section of the area did great with Nemo in February. 
 

13EADE8A-5E7F-436C-A30D-6911FAF72096.png.64899269376f8eebecb1853c6965e0cb.png

 

Yeah ended up being an above average snowfall year IMBY. Good December event too.

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, you wouldn’t want that pattern to lock in. That’s what happened in 2012, 2001, and 1996. Hopefully, we do better than that. But at least the eastern section of the area did great with Nemo in February. 
 

13EADE8A-5E7F-436C-A30D-6911FAF72096.png.64899269376f8eebecb1853c6965e0cb.png

 

96 and 01 were neutral Enso after La Nina's..This year we are in a moderate La Nina for the 3rd year.

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2 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah for a long time cold air was progged to come in next thursday, but that's not happening. Now the whole week is going to be mild, and overall mid December isn't looking good. 

Wasn't long ago that mets here were saying best December pattern since 2010. Now we're hoping for a better pattern late in the month, which is very long range so who knows. Long range is too difficult to predict to get excited when it looks good a couple weeks down the road. 

Exactly. Been cutter city so far with only cold air occurring as storms pass.

 

Another one tomorrow. Another one next week. Then we move to mid month.
 

2 -3 weeks is an eternity in forecasting.

 

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4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Great post by ORH wxman wanted to share here. No need for concern IMO.

 

Yeah, getting a favorable Pacific isn’t that important for snowfall in Northern New England like it is for us. Some of their snowiest seasons have been out least snowy. They can do great with teleconnections that don’t work for us. 

Top 10 snowiest seasons in CAR and NYC snowfall

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Total Snowfall 
NYC Snowfall
1 2007-2008 197.8 11.9
2 1954-1955 181.1 11.5
3 2018-2019 165.4 20.5
4 1981-1982 159.8 24.6
5 1972-1973 153.0 2.8
6 2019-2020 151.9 4.8
7 1968-1969 151.6 30.2
8 2013-2014 150.7 57.4
9 1962-1963 147.5 16.3
10 1976-1977 145.9 24.5

 

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We're basically trending things in the exact direction I'd hoped for all along. But to each their own. The first image is now a beautiful representation of the ssw precursor pattern. The second is when the -NAO retros to west based and sets up as advertised. On the 13th like it has been for days. Too much focus on a couple days of ridging. That's part of a promising pattern for future prospects anyway lol. 

279231843_index(84).thumb.png.45e0aa04ee16db66f6dc04872f1cb21d.png

540042647_index(85).thumb.png.f8f4bb6bc256df8c050cfefccb5d8d45.png

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I've always liked the potential for the pattern improvement around mid month. I mean, consider the timing with the holidays. But that was just potential last month. We appear on track and I find that pretty phenomenal. Beyond December still holds promise too, but we'll have to see how that goes. First things first. Let's reel in that blocking.

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3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Who ? Almost everyone all over this forum and social media were saying just the other day how the pattern looks the best in years.

Even meteorologists were also giddy.

It still looks fine.   Multiple people also told you to be patient.  

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