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TD 9/Ian Banter


MattPetrulli
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1 hour ago, bigtenfan said:

That map is for tropical storm winds and depending on the exact detail shows the landfall area at a 50 to 80 percent chance of TS winds

I am sure that the 50 and 64 kt wind maps showed even a lesser chance 

I am sure that map was based on the GFS which failed miserably in this storm at the cost of many many lives 

I strongly disagree with the notion it would’ve changed a damn thing. People who didn’t evacuate weren’t going to have their minds changed. 

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Another big bust with nearly every model was the awful intensity forecast. Even the ones further south never showed anything like a sub-940 mb hurricane with 155 mph winds. These models made it seem like conditions would be so god awful that the best Ian would do is 125-130 mph. 
Trough interaction is still very difficult to forecast and model. That being said, there were some strong TC model runs. But overall, it's still a science that still cannot be considered a mature discipline. Much research is still in its infancy.
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