TD 9/Ian Banter

[TheGhostOfJohnBolaris]

1 hour ago, bigtenfan said:

That map is for tropical storm winds and depending on the exact detail shows the landfall area at a 50 to 80 percent chance of TS winds

I am sure that the 50 and 64 kt wind maps showed even a lesser chance 

I am sure that map was based on the GFS which failed miserably in this storm at the cost of many many lives 

I strongly disagree with the notion it would’ve changed a damn thing. People who didn’t evacuate weren’t going to have their minds changed. 

[Windspeed]

Another big bust with nearly every model was the awful intensity forecast. Even the ones further south never showed anything like a sub-940 mb hurricane with 155 mph winds. These models made it seem like conditions would be so god awful that the best Ian would do is 125-130 mph. 

Trough interaction is still very difficult to forecast and model. That being said, there were some strong TC model runs. But overall, it's still a science that still cannot be considered a mature discipline. Much research is still in its infancy.

[hawkeye_wx]

Looking at the west models, the point they really went wrong is Cuba.  They had Ian continuing nnw across Cuba and even for a while in the gulf.  Instead, Ian turned east of north as soon as it hit Cuba and it never stopped moving nne from there.  I wonder why models could not see that turn.

[Wannabehippie]

There was an excellent segment on this past Sunday's 60 minutes on all the damage that Ian left behind in Florida. One guy interviewed drove in and out of blocks, 118 miles in total, 9000 pictures, of all the damage.