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TD 9/Ian Banter


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Well here we are a few days out in the cone in Tampa Bay. Happens every year, usually more often than this year, but this is the first time as I remember this season.

We've been throwing away old outdated cans of food we bought for Irma. Are we stocking up this weekend? No way.

If our home is still standing if we get hit and lose power, the first day will be cooking egg/cheese meals and whatever meat we have in the fridge. Second day is eating as much as we can of what was frozen food. Third day no power, even with cans of good food, living without A/C in Florida is torture any time of the year. If the house can be locked up, we are heading to a hotel somewhere.

 

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5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I just think it’s funny we have a banter thread for something that’s not even named

In a typical year we'd enjoy banter until warnings went up where it matters. Obviously the stress of a slow year has the very serious members Jonesing to do what they do and all of the rest of us who live in the path are put aside in a banter thread.

If we get hit direct and give a moment to moment live feed we may still get pushed out if we are not a real Met. LOL

 

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Region wide run on water and basics started yesterday.  Many Target and Publix locations out of water already.  
 

Most here take hurricane hype in stride given the rarity of actual impacts, but feels like more are in tune with scarcity after the 2020 pandemic driven issues with staples and necessities.  You snooze you lose.

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36 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Region wide run on water and basics started yesterday.  Many Target and Publix locations out of water already. 

Most here take hurricane hype in stride given the rarity of actual impacts, but feels like more are in tune with scarcity after the 2020 pandemic driven issues with staples and necessities.  You snooze you lose.

People are dumb.

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44 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Region wide run on water and basics started yesterday.  Many Target and Publix locations out of water already.  
 

Most here take hurricane hype in stride given the rarity of actual impacts, but feels like more are in tune with scarcity after the 2020 pandemic driven issues with staples and necessities.  You snooze you lose.

I was laughing at a lady yesterday at Costco in Orlando. She bought enough water to fill a swimming pool. And you could see panic in her almost running with her cart. Smh.

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5 hours ago, lilj4425 said:

I like beer. :) The blue turd is here. 

Stocked up on beer today. We still have water left over from Irma. Funny in all the power outages with so many storms, water was never as issue. Beer was. And ice was nowhere to be found.

Neighbors with generators were fine until the gas ran out. Then they were looking for ice too.

We are good on toilet as long as it stays dry...

 

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I hope the Tampa folks didn’t waste too much money, like I’ve been saying since the start. Every year this happens, every year Tampa is gonna go under water because of some hurricane, every year it goes north or south or west hell one of these times one might just flush itself right into the sea. By this time tomorrow we won’t even be inside the cone at all anymore. image.png

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So I have a somewhat in my opinion legit question about the models and the Mets/experienced people in here. My background is mostly in sports vs Science and I’ve been trying to think of a comparison to the phenomenon that is the Tampa hurricane drought. The one I could think of is the Harlem Globetrotters/Washington Generals games of the past. The comparison is that even though it was “competitive” game the Globetrotters always won, was it possible that the Generals could win, yeah but it was a 0.0001% outcome. For whatever reason that is like a land falling Hurricane in Tampa. It has been 101 years since the last one of any size (correct me if my history is off) and only twice in the past 174 years has there been a land falling major Hurricane. In comparison there have been 176 land falling hurricanes in the continental US over that 101 years.

so the question(s) are this. Do the models take in this type of history or is every storm looked at in a time and space vacuum based off the current conditions? And for the experienced people/Mets that have been calling for this as a Tampa landfall, do you mostly ignore the historical data as just coincidence and if the data for this specific storm (or the next that models have going toward Tampa) just trust the data. I hope this doesn’t come across too confusing or negative toward the science or your opinions but to me on the surface, expecting a Tampa area landfall would be like going into a Globetrotters/Generals game truly believing that the Generals were going to win. 

 

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12 hours ago, Dbullsfan22 said:

So I have a somewhat in my opinion legit question about the models and the Mets/experienced people in here. My background is mostly in sports vs Science and I’ve been trying to think of a comparison to the phenomenon that is the Tampa hurricane drought. The one I could think of is the Harlem Globetrotters/Washington Generals games of the past. The comparison is that even though it was “competitive” game the Globetrotters always won, was it possible that the Generals could win, yeah but it was a 0.0001% outcome. For whatever reason that is like a land falling Hurricane in Tampa. It has been 101 years since the last one of any size (correct me if my history is off) and only twice in the past 174 years has there been a land falling major Hurricane. In comparison there have been 176 land falling hurricanes in the continental US over that 101 years.

so the question(s) are this. Do the models take in this type of history or is every storm looked at in a time and space vacuum based off the current conditions? And for the experienced people/Mets that have been calling for this as a Tampa landfall, do you mostly ignore the historical data as just coincidence and if the data for this specific storm (or the next that models have going toward Tampa) just trust the data. I hope this doesn’t come across too confusing or negative toward the science or your opinions but to me on the surface, expecting a Tampa area landfall would be like going into a Globetrotters/Generals game truly believing that the Generals were going to win. 

 

Not a meteorologist here but models do not take into account historical data even though forecasters do. If models did so, few would have gotten Hurricane Sandy right 10 years ago. The problem is that weather pattern are changing and what once was a 1 in 100 year storm could be down to 1 in 25 year occurrence. Tampa has dodged many storms so risk is always there.

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12 hours ago, Dbullsfan22 said:

So I have a somewhat in my opinion legit question about the models and the Mets/experienced people in here. My background is mostly in sports vs Science and I’ve been trying to think of a comparison to the phenomenon that is the Tampa hurricane drought. The one I could think of is the Harlem Globetrotters/Washington Generals games of the past. The comparison is that even though it was “competitive” game the Globetrotters always won, was it possible that the Generals could win, yeah but it was a 0.0001% outcome. For whatever reason that is like a land falling Hurricane in Tampa. It has been 101 years since the last one of any size (correct me if my history is off) and only twice in the past 174 years has there been a land falling major Hurricane. In comparison there have been 176 land falling hurricanes in the continental US over that 101 years.

so the question(s) are this. Do the models take in this type of history or is every storm looked at in a time and space vacuum based off the current conditions? And for the experienced people/Mets that have been calling for this as a Tampa landfall, do you mostly ignore the historical data as just coincidence and if the data for this specific storm (or the next that models have going toward Tampa) just trust the data. I hope this doesn’t come across too confusing or negative toward the science or your opinions but to me on the surface, expecting a Tampa area landfall would be like going into a Globetrotters/Generals game truly believing that the Generals were going to win. 

 

I don’t see what the historical data about storms landfalling in Tampa has to do with a storm today making landfall in Tampa. I don’t know if the data the models use is even that specific. I highly doubt it. I also don’t know if data that old would be effective anyways, as there are likely gaps in it because of unknown things at the time.

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Many Tampa people rely upon the most ignorant wx lore. I hear so much about shields and mystical barriers coming from that region. They’re gonna get smashed one day and it’ll be hilarious to see all that voodoo stuff debunked. 

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18 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

Many Tampa people rely upon the most ignorant wx lore. I hear so much about shields and mystical barriers coming from that region. They’re gonna get smashed one day and it’ll be hilarious to see all that voodoo stuff debunked. 

There's already some pretty good bump trolling to be had if Ian cooperates.

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