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Wake me Up....when September Ends....


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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah the GFS has been warm overall, but it's been finding a way to muck up the warm anomalies in our region for a few runs now. Front door, backdoor, CAD...I guess it's that time of the year.

Right. I’m not denying the warm spells, they’ll be there…but the torch as far as the weenie dreams of is, as usual, a vision manifested by a drunken mental state. 

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21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah the GFS has been warm overall, but it's been finding a way to muck up the warm anomalies in our region for a few runs now. Front door, backdoor, CAD...I guess it's that time of the year.

Ha! 

I've observed this phenomenon with that particular guidance as persistent since roughly 2016 ... regardless of season.  It began about whence the rapid version upgrades began. 

As a conceptual extension:  I am not sure what the exact performance scales would reveal.  It may be a better at hemispheric/continental scopes, ..perhaps "masking" it's error in manufacturing cool nuances - it seems to be uniquely skilled in physically manifesting them out there in time.  But it "seems" to me that it has to correct some 20% off it's late mid/extended range features quite a bit - albeit anecdotal.

Case in point, these huge SW carving BD troughs the last three cycles over the lower Maritimes, backing down cold frosts into Maine.  I do think ( btw ) Maine has a shot at a season's first wide spread frost, anyway ... a week from this morning, but the GFS has been overly bullying too much cold.  Another aspect it loves to do is build big continental non-hydrostatic arcs that encompass ORD and BOS, but you look at the sfc evolution ...and it almost invariably has a giant cool high pressure parked over the top of it, such that everyone even inside the ridge has an east flow. 

I know why it does that...anecdotal or not!  It's too strong/weighty with the N-stream as a permanent base-line error.  So, it physically ends up with surplus into confluence aspects - it becomes a mass balancing problem so ends up with too much high pressure. 

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