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Wake me Up....when September Ends....


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1 hour ago, Superstorm93 said:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-neng-total_precip_inch-2616800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-neng-qpf_24hr_ge_1-2487200.png

It's interesting that this product shows a clear preference to topography -   

That's fine, but it's not like a we have a standard deviation easterly long fetch of PWAT moisture coming headlong into those elevation bands...

I don't like that the Euro is doing that without actually carrying along those necessary anomalous parameters.  The flow/mechanics just seem too weak to manifest that kind of layout..

Not that anyone asked me but that layout appears too organized for this. The overwhelming/blend therein for this has been for a weak synoptic forcing. 

It's operating through a 2" (general) PWAT air mass, so just a little lift over the slow moving boundary ...yeah, it should fill in for time.     

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Yeah...looking at this more, kind of a duh factor pops out.   Time.   ...length thereof ...

A miasma of thick mist with light rain falling through a PWAT saturated low level, with occasional embedded moderate bursts ...all lingering onward toward 30 hours would also add up.

Sort of out of shape/rusty for durational QPF events given this last 6 months of life around here. 

Anyway, we'll see. I still don't like the Euro layout. 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah...looking at this more, kind of a duh factor pops out.   Time.   ...length thereof ...

I miasma of light rain through a PWAT saturated llv, with embedded moderate bursts ...all lingering onward toward 30 hours would also add up.  

Sort of out of shape/rusty for durational QPF events given this last 6 months of life around here. 

Anyway, we'll see

We prefer the slower rains anyway. The less runoff, the better. Soak it deep and steady. 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

kind of a neat feature here.  you can see the cold air being favorably drawn down the Champlain Valley -

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Vermont-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Looks like the front is through back home?

Was 73F at MVL at 11:30pm and now down to 66F as of 1:20pm.  North wind at 10-15mph.

Temp is going the wrong way diurnally.

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