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August 2022


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46 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Beautiful day out there though some locations may hit 90. The possible heatwave would start Tuesday or Wednesday. It will be interesting to see which school of thought prevails in reality with regards to the evolution into, duration, and extent of the heat. The European model is certainly the hottest case scenario at the moment. I question the NWS forecast of upper 80s on Monday with the warm front approaching the area. More than likely there will be clouds at the very least with the possibility of a few showers and I would doubt temperatures get much above 80 if they even get that high.

WX/PT

 

Agree about the evolution of the ridge.  It look Monday still looks to be the next chance for rain / storms as warm front begins moving through and setting the stage for the next roasting.

By Tue (8/2) the Western Atlantic ridge is building way west and eventually joins the Rockies/Plains Ridge by the middle of the Week Wed (8/3) and Thu (8/4) with a blast of strong heat coming in by next Fri (8/5) and through next weekend as it looks now, with the euro bringning in >20c 850 temps at times. The ridge contracts and resurges into the week of Mon (8/8) with overall a hot pattern to at times strong heat.  Still some details to be worked out that could foster storms around the rim of the ridge and Ridge could build over and force onshore or NE flow at times to keep it just warm to hot on days.  But overall dog days of summer and some of the hottest Aug temps sustained since 2015 or more.

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Agree about the evolution of the ridge.  It look Monday still looks to be the next chance for rain / storms as warm front begins moving through and setting the stage for the next roasting.

By Tue (8/2) the Western Atlantic ridge is building way west and eventually joins the Rockies/Plains Ridge by the middle of the Week Wed (8/3) and Thu (8/4) with a blast of strong heat coming in by next Fri (8/5) and through next weekend as it looks now, with the euro bringning in >20c 850 temps at times. The ridge contracts and resurges into the week of Mon (8/8) with overall a hot pattern to at times strong heat.  Still some details to be worked out that could foster storms around the rim of the ridge and Ridge could build over and force onshore or NE flow at times to keep it just warm to hot on days.  But overall dog days of summer and some of the hottest Aug temps sustained since 2015 or more.

There isnt any sign of WAR week of 8/8 onwards with ridge in the west and trough in the East.

 

image.thumb.png.4703336b471d091d845a7bf2bbfc5d8c.png

 

image.thumb.png.250bc481b177163816e3439bdc22b88b.png

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Starting tomorrow we lose 2 minutes A-day of daylight.  Should be real noticeable in the next few weeks.  Low dew points continue to be the theme of this summer With only 5 more weeks to go to Labor Day weekend

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27 minutes ago, binbisso said:

There isnt any sign of WAR week of 8/8 onwards with ridge in the west and trough in the East.

 

image.thumb.png.4703336b471d091d845a7bf2bbfc5d8c.png

 

image.thumb.png.250bc481b177163816e3439bdc22b88b.png

Most Augusts even many of them during hot summers there is a lull in the heat around mid August before one or two last surges of heat later in August or even in September, therefore this is not surprising. I would think we would have a cooler stretch from about August 10th or 11th until August 17th or 18th during which time WAR would probably be absent from the picture.

WX/PT

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Just now, nycwinter said:

by august 14 the sun will be setting 17 minutes earlier and normal highs and lows are already starting to slowly fall..

maybe october will be +4 instead of +5

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This summer has been very dry, last 4-6 weeks, but it hasn’t been oppressive heat. Quite nice actually aside from a few torrid days and very few triple H days. Today and tomorrow actually glorious summer days. Been so many deep blue sky days. 

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44 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

This summer has been very dry, last 4-6 weeks, but it hasn’t been oppressive heat. Quite nice actually aside from a few torrid days and very few triple H days. Today and tomorrow actually glorious summer days. Been so many deep blue sky days. 

Many places are having the hottest and/or driest July on record. 

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1 hour ago, greenmtnwx said:

Driest yeah, the heat, ehh. 

Don't be surprised if you feel differently in about 6 more weeks. July yes hasn't been too bad the low humidity being a highlight. But once the Western Atlantic Ridge takes hold I think you'll feel the humidity and heat this week and though afterwards there'll likely be a break, it seems likely that there'll be more heat later in the month with this pattern continuing.

WX/PT

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6 hours ago, Rjay said:

We're above average against our highest normals ever.   I don't think people understand what that actually means. 

And for those that still don’t understand what you are referring to: “NCEI generates the official U.S. normals every 10 years in keeping with the needs of our user community and the requirements of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and National Weather Service (NWS). The 1991–2020 U.S. Climate Normals are the latest in a series of decadal normals first produced in the 1950s.”

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/us-climate-normals

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Monday (8/1)opens cloudy and potentially wet with storms and some rain ahead as warm front noses through.  The Western Atlantic Ridge is expanding west by the middle of the week Tue (8/2) and Wed (8/3) which will merge with the Rockies / Plain ridge at tmes.  A warm to hot to at times very hot pattern from 8/2 and onward.  Strong heat this weed Wed (8/3) through Fri (8/6) with 850 mb temps >18c , peaking at >21C.  A more southerly flow will pump the humidity next weekend Sat (8/6) and offer a more Florida style pattern with storms , warm and humid.  Beyond there overalll continues warm as the Rockies / Plains Ridge rebuilds and more heat is ready to spread east by the The (8/11).

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