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Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!


weatherwiz
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heh I dunno -

This looks like an EF4 1::1000 year tornado outbreak event in the absence of this dumpster overcast, in which case, it is a very common local climate case scenario of epic waste of a 1::1000 year event ... . 

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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1129 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022

   Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND
   TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong/severe thunderstorm wind gusts are expected across
   parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and New England this afternoon
   through early evening.

   ...New England/Mid-Atlantic States...
   The region will be influenced by a low-amplitude shortwave trough
   and speed max today, with moderately strong mid/high-level winds
   noted in regional 12z observed soundings as far south as roughly the
   Pennsylvania/Maryland border vicinity. Scattered thunderstorms are
   expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon along
   and ahead of a surface cold front including near a pre-frontal
   trough. Pre-frontal showers and residual cloud cover persist
   particularly from New Jersey/eastern Pennsylvania into southern New
   England, but gradual destabilization and an erosion of boundary
   layer inhibition is occurring especially across southern New England
   late this morning and midday.

   Even with lingering residual cloud cover, the corridor of strongest
   destabilization this afternoon should largely parallel the I-95
   general vicinity from Virginia into southern New England, where
   MLCAPE may reach/exceed 2000-2500 J/kg. Effective shear magnitudes
   will generally range from a supercell-supportive 40-50 kt over New
   England to around 25-30 kt southwestward into Virginia/eastern West
   Virginia, where a deeply mixed boundary layer will nonetheless
   support pulse/multicell-related wind gust potential. Severe/locally
   damaging wind gusts will be the most common severe risk (almost
   exclusively) overall, but a tornado cannot be ruled particularly
   across southern New England where deep-layer shear and low-level
   shear/SRH will be stronger.
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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh I dunno -

This looks like an EF4 1::1000 year tornado outbreak event in the absence of this dumpster overcast, in which case, it is a local very common local climate case scenario of epic waste of a 1::1000 year event ... . 

I feel like we get EF2+ conditions 2-3 times a year. But they are always screwed up by cloud debris or lack of a trigger. So they ultimately end of up being 1:1000 year events.

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1129 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022

   Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND
   TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong/severe thunderstorm wind gusts are expected across
   parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and New England this afternoon
   through early evening.

   ...New England/Mid-Atlantic States...
   The region will be influenced by a low-amplitude shortwave trough
   and speed max today, with moderately strong mid/high-level winds
   noted in regional 12z observed soundings as far south as roughly the
   Pennsylvania/Maryland border vicinity. Scattered thunderstorms are
   expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon along
   and ahead of a surface cold front including near a pre-frontal
   trough. Pre-frontal showers and residual cloud cover persist
   particularly from New Jersey/eastern Pennsylvania into southern New
   England, but gradual destabilization and an erosion of boundary
   layer inhibition is occurring especially across southern New England
   late this morning and midday.

   Even with lingering residual cloud cover, the corridor of strongest
   destabilization this afternoon should largely parallel the I-95
   general vicinity from Virginia into southern New England, where
   MLCAPE may reach/exceed 2000-2500 J/kg. Effective shear magnitudes
   will generally range from a supercell-supportive 40-50 kt over New
   England to around 25-30 kt southwestward into Virginia/eastern West
   Virginia, where a deeply mixed boundary layer will nonetheless
   support pulse/multicell-related wind gust potential. Severe/locally
   damaging wind gusts will be the most common severe risk (almost
   exclusively) overall, but a tornado cannot be ruled particularly
   across southern New England where deep-layer shear and low-level
   shear/SRH will be stronger.

This is my hope:

but gradual destabilization and an erosion of boundary
   layer inhibition is occurring especially across southern New England
   late this morning and midday.”
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2 minutes ago, rimetree said:

A real t-storm day here. Pounding rain with frequent flashes. Nothing severe but maybe more in the pipeline this afternoon. 73/71

Nah... once per diem during transitioning fronts is the NE allotment ...  you're all done.  

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34 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

The 3Km NAM is a masterclass in how we miss all of these storms and end up with basically nothing. Storms miss to the north, and then develop to my southwest and slide off the coast. amazing. 

it's a Jeter Downs "pattern" swing and a miss

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Hodographs are forecast to become more straight as the afternoon progresses, however, this is something to watch which we lacked last week. If any mid-level mesocyclone becomes established there would be a higher than usual potential for a tornado today. Given the favorable low-level parameters (shear/CAPE/LCL's) low-level vortex could become elongated and interact with mid-level cyclone and voila...TOR

image.thumb.png.90244da1de7e355dcb8a2b771e4aa3aa.png

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This is reminding me of last week anyway...

Right down the convective wall lining up down the N shores of L.I. ...robbing everywhere N of there sun by way of farting their anvils down wind in a hyper velocity mid level flow that can only be explained by CC ...

f us

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is reminding me of last week anyway...

Right down the convective wall lining up down the N shores of L.I. ...robbing everywhere N of there sun by way of farting their anvils down wind in a hyper velocity mid level flow that can only be explained by CC ...

f us

IDK...I think this is actually better overall than last week. We got some decent clearing coming in quickly. While that LIS anvil blowover is giving us clouds now that is moving ENE. I have a feeling around 3-4 we're going to start popping supercells in the HV and they move east and eventually form a line across central MA/CT.

image.png.6bbda16b80b48799286007af5093158e.png

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

IDK...I think this is actually better overall than last week. We got some decent clearing coming in quickly. While that LIS anvil blowover is giving us clouds now that is moving ENE. I have a feeling around 3-4 we're going to start popping supercells in the HV and they move east and eventually form a line across central MA/CT.

image.png.6bbda16b80b48799286007af5093158e.png

Agree, I think the later start time helps areas partially clear out/Heat up.

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

IDK...I think this is actually better overall than last week. We got some decent clearing coming in quickly. While that LIS anvil blowover is giving us clouds now that is moving ENE. I have a feeling around 3-4 we're going to start popping supercells in the HV and they move east and eventually form a line across central MA/CT.

image.png.6bbda16b80b48799286007af5093158e.png

hence the use of the term, '...anyway'

as in, all things considered - we're not appreciably different than what transpired last week... But so far, last week outperformed this, by the way - least we had SC's straifing the region.  

We have better 0-3km mechanics... - yup.  I give you that.

We have a rapid pealing off the clearning that's probably going to mean more for Mass than CT, but yeah...

That stuff is true.   But last week there was a resulting convective wall down of LI just like now, and in both occurrence, ...there was sun robbing. 

It's comparable. It's not liked or wanted - but it is comparable.   We'll see what the clearing does for us... It did also clear before too late last week, so even that bears resemblance. 

I'm also a little personally biased because my internal monologue has thought all weekend that today looked similar to last week, and then here we are with these next of kin observations bearing similarities... so tfwiw -

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Looks like we're mixing out dews a bit with winds taking on a more W trajectory now at the sfc. With that any tornado potential is probably significantly reduced. 

And now we will get several TORs

Nice! Keep up the good work my man.

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14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Looks like we're mixing out dews a bit with winds taking on a more W trajectory now at the sfc. With that any tornado potential is probably significantly reduced. 

And now we will get several TORs

there's a snarky comic angle to this day... It's 87/73 here where I am - although a brief sprinkle just passed with one distant rumble so it may be 82 or something... anyway, it's 90/73 in Boston.  

90/73 ... --> do we have enough ?? 

what's wrong with this picture? 

most sites were all at minimum mid 80s min/70+ DP, at some point late morning... 

Tell me we are not caught up in a warming world when T/TD combo like that have to negotiate a way to nuke the mid levels. 

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I think there is still some CIN in place which may explain the lack of additional development. would think though we should start seeing stuff pop quickly off to the West over the next 60-minutes. If that doesn't happen then it probably won't. 

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