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July 2022 Disco/obs/etc


Torch Tiger
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While it really hasn't happened so far, it really won't take much to get some longer duration heat/humidity to build in. As long as we're continuing to see fluxes of heat/humidity get into the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic that opportunity will be there. Won't take much of a change to the overall pattern to get that in here. Same thing with winter...as long as you're building cold into Southeast Canada it doesn't take much to get that in here. The past decade I think has really re-shaped expectations when it comes to big heat here. For the most part, the majority of our 90F+ days comes in July through first half of August. One thing I'd be curious to know is see how the past 10-15 years compare with 90+ days at the major climo sites against the long-term average. BDL I think typically averages somewhere around 18-19 90F days per year? I would bet if you looked at the last 10-15 years the average has to be somewhere into the 20's. I mean a few years back they got to 41 or 42. 

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37 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Someone on here opined a while back that the May heat blast might have been the biggest one for the season.  
 

I doubt that happens but it would be interesting if it did

Ensembles are not promising if you're looking for big heat. Weak NE through signal through peak climo

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ensembles are not promising if you're looking for big heat. Weak NE through signal through peak climo

We can still get big heat with a mid-level trough signal or a NW flow in the mid-levels. I think the issue is more ultimately the lower heights and trough signal in the lower-levels of the atmosphere. That's what is preventing these pushes of bigger heat/humidity from getting in and becoming consistent. It actually sucks b/c the 500mb pattern is one that could favor lots of convective/severe chances here but the lower-levels are crap. 

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It is pretty impressive how tenacious that NE trough is… looping the 850mb temps out to day 16 is just a continual baking of the center of the nation and every time it attempts to slide a bit NE it gets beaten down hard.

GFS went full body trough over us out in mid-July on that 6z run.  EPS continues to show big heat squeezed into PA and then just get crushed.

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On 6/30/2022 at 4:34 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

312D0939-E520-4947-B762-645C4BA85B64.jpeg

Meh ...seen that layout a hundred times enough over the years to know that's a-right-turning-convective-complexes-sending-out-anvil-rains-that-barely-wet-streets-but-seem-to-be-remarkably-adept-at-enticing-mosquito-bites, failure 

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89/?

dew points don't feel terrible.  It just feels very warm, but the windiness is offsetting and actually if one isn't dumb enough to run in black shirts in the sun, it's not terrible outside.   Looking around at NWS...  57 to 63 DPs...  But these home stations are all selling 68 to 70 - typical bias there. 

Not sure what it really is but since it doesn't feel oppressive, that kinda bush-argues for NWS.  I'd characterize the hour as just a warm summer day - something about this summer is emerging reasons not to feel or even be all that hot.   weird. 

My attitude on the day may change by 5 pm but just for now, it's unremarkable

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

89/?

dew points don't feel terrible.  It just feels very warm, but the windiness is offsetting and actually if one isn't dumb enough to run in black shirts in the sun, it's not terrible outside.   Looking around at NWS...  57 to 63 DPs...  But these home stations are all selling 68 to 70 - typical bias there. 

Not sure what it really is but since it doesn't feel oppressive, that kinda bush-argues for NWS.  I'd characterize the hour as just a warm summer day - something about this summer is emerging reasons not to feel or even be all that hot.   weird. 

My attitude on the day may change by 5 pm but just for now, it's unremarkable

Getting muggy south of the Pike. Sell the home stations.

828.gif

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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

While it really hasn't happened so far, it really won't take much to get some longer duration heat/humidity to build in. As long as we're continuing to see fluxes of heat/humidity get into the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic that opportunity will be there. Won't take much of a change to the overall pattern to get that in here. Same thing with winter...as long as you're building cold into Southeast Canada it doesn't take much to get that in here. The past decade I think has really re-shaped expectations when it comes to big heat here. For the most part, the majority of our 90F+ days comes in July through first half of August. One thing I'd be curious to know is see how the past 10-15 years compare with 90+ days at the major climo sites against the long-term average. BDL I think typically averages somewhere around 18-19 90F days per year? I would bet if you looked at the last 10-15 years the average has to be somewhere into the 20's. I mean a few years back they got to 41 or 42. 

Quite different farther north.  The "humid months" (July-August) haven't recorded 90+ here since 2002 and 10 of our 19 days with 90s are in May-June.  We had 11 years, 2006-16, with no 90+, and have seen 5 since then, 2 in May and 3 in June.  It's no surprise that CAR's 3 hottest days, each 96°, came in May (1) and June (2).

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34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Meh ...seen that layout a hundred times enough over the years to know that's a-right-turning-convective-complexes-sending-out-anvil-rains-that-barely-wet-streets-but-seem-to-be-remarkably-adept-at-enticing-mosquito-bites, failure 

fully expecting rainfall that doesn't even wet underneath the trees.....0.88" here since the 10th of June, everything is crispy, very August like in our desert.

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30 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Quite different farther north.  The "humid months" (July-August) haven't recorded 90+ here since 2002 and 10 of our 19 days with 90s are in May-June.  We had 11 years, 2006-16, with no 90+, and have seen 5 since then, 2 in May and 3 in June.  It's no surprise that CAR's 3 hottest days, each 96°, came in May (1) and June (2).

Wow!

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44 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

fully expecting rainfall that doesn't even wet underneath the trees.....0.88" here since the 10th of June, everything is crispy, very August like in our desert.

That's the problem with this low amplitude +PNAP flow structure... It's NW-W orientation in the longer term systemic mean, means ... dry continental flow.  Our S Atl Seaboard and or Gulf origin theta-e ..circulating around cyclic WAR flexing ...delivers us convective rains.   But this circulation manifold that is unrelenting has thus far shut most of that tap off.   

If the +PNAP would go ahead and really just go bonkers, it would dip enough to fully cancel summer and start spinning up coastals... but since that's never gonna happen, all it does is stop WV sourcing. 

And I'm not conceding to any drought.   We have plenty of deep strata geologic hydro in the area.  We could bone out the rest of the way and really turn all lawns tinder beige, and we'd still correct it all with an early October seasonal pre-lapse Nor'easter...  

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43 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Tuesday looks interesting!

meh nothing is interesting...it's all just a big pile of teasing crap. That's what we do best here...crap. Can't get any good instability in here or good lapse rates. It's like mother nature sprayed New England with an instability/lapse rate repellant...well fook you mother nature. I hope someone sprays you with a pesticide and your powers dwindle. Like summer is almost over really. Maybe we can get some type of sick August threat like we did in 2020 but other than that it all just sucks. 

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1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

The new day two should be out pretty soon..I hope it has a hatched area with an arrow pointing directly at my house 

Looks like some stupid subtle warm layers to contend with. Probably be a situation where E MA and RI is best. 

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1 minute ago, Spaizzo said:

Bad in your backyard quwstion hitting the Mets game at citified tomorrow how bad are the chance of storms?

I have a friend going too. Asked me the same question. It's a really tough call. The timing of thunderstorms should be mid-to-late afternoon which obviously isn't good given the 4:00 game. I was initially thinking yesterday the start of the game could be delayed but that they should be able to play. But CAMS today aren't very helpful. Would appear the game could get started on time then delayed at some point. 

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