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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I wonder if this record block influenced the new Euro seasonal that  just came out today? It has more blocking now than it did in May. Looks like the main heat ridge sets up in the Plains and Rockies. But you wonder if it’s just repeating the initial conditions? I guess we’ll see.
 

New run

79560E94-3461-4123-B4CD-141E75DBE103.png.8b90f3229803cc99416825c00cee6893.png

Old run

58E733F4-05BE-4495-B19B-237817962612.png.8cd8e0c37e603818f310f35869c343c8.png

 

Your Old Run is from last year.     Is this the one you wanted to post?

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

2010 was in a class by itself for record heat. JFK had double the number of 90° it had in 1955. While 1993 was a record hot summer around Newark, it was much cooler at JFK.

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2010 32 0
2 1983 26 0
3 2002 21 0
4 1971 18 0
- 1949 18 0
5 2005 17 0
- 1991 17 0
6 2012 16 0
- 1959 16 3
- 1955 16 2
7 2016 15 0
- 1995 15 0
- 1961 15 0
8 1999 14 0
- 1988 14 0
- 1966 14 0
- 1952 14 0
9 2011 13 0
- 1993 13 0
- 1984 13 0
- 1977 13 0
- 1970 13 0
- 1969 13 0
- 1963 13 0
10 2020 12 0
- 2015 12 0
- 2006 12 0
- 2003 12 0
- 1978 12 0
- 1968 12 0
- 1953 12 0

The weird thing is I remember 1993 as super hot at JFK too-- do you remember that super heatwave in July? JFK exceeded 100+ on two straight days.  That was the first year I used a/c lol.

I remember that entire summer as hot all the way up to mid September.

90 degree heat from May until September!

2010 was definitely hotter than any other summer-- I wonder when we'll see a summer like that again?  

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4 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

-NAO's have correlated with hot weather, very strongly now for 3+ years. The correlation is getting stronger. When I see +NAO on long range models, I think cool/damp/cloudy, -NAO is clear skies, 98* on June 1st is an example. It at least feels nicer/warmer than the actual temperatures. 

Is that why super hot summers are correlated to very snowy winters? I think so.....

Those of you who hate super hot summers should remember that....

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

We have warm and cool -AO patterns. The record warmth at end of May linked up with the SE Ridge. So it was more a south based block like the winter of 2021. The record -AO has been undercut by a cooler trough in early June. 

65AFEC3E-FEEB-4393-A364-99B98FF9899E.gif.5be0e5ae2c8bdfbf128ad613fa64d6a0.gif

 


07F81F52-876D-4234-8A42-EB1164A6DAFE.thumb.png.8379f95611c08c0bb183c24ead40dbcf.png

 

Interesting so that linkage was what caused that nice westerly flow that brought the heat all the way out here? :)

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro seasonal has a drought feedback ridge to our west this summer. Keeps a stalled out frontal zone along the East Coast. Deep tropical moisture feed through our area with plenty of rain and high dewpoints. Very active hurricane season for the Atlantic with near 20 named storms. 
 

47C0D7D0-0CAD-41C1-A42B-1873704AD6C4.png.a26d5fc33148623bf388725ce7780a1f.png
16401410-F8B5-441D-B25A-4EB9A73191FC.png.9119f68cc65bc862b29e930b9116f65b.png

A8C90EB5-6E34-4DC4-B045-A72AD57FAFB6.png.152ede338a2fa70a24effbc7e498ec48.png

679A680C-0D0B-48FF-AA75-CAD2F3A327B9.png.e24d52b87b8b315b7783b9e48a7a89db.png


 

 

Hopefully that drought feedback ridge progresses east over the next few years and we get more 90s/2002/2010 type summers.

 

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18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Is that why super hot summers are correlated to very snowy winters? I think so.....

Those of you who hate super hot summers should remember that....

N. Atlantic SST tri-pole (vs I think opp-NAOstate(for the sake of the indicator). or vs relative EC temps) is a good indicator. So far we can go either way.. 

 

compday.c8tk3pXKgC (1).gif

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14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The weird thing is I remember 1993 as super hot at JFK too-- do you remember that super heatwave in July? JFK exceeded 100+ on two straight days.  That was the first year I used a/c lol.

I remember that entire summer as hot all the way up to mid September.

90 degree heat from May until September!

2010 was definitely hotter than any other summer-- I wonder when we'll see a summer like that again?  

JFK only had 1 heatwave lasting 5 days that summer with the two consecutive 100° days in July. All the other 90° days were brief warm ups. Newark had 5 heatwaves spread out through the whole summer.

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 
for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Dates
Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1993-01-01 to 1993-12-31
1 5 1993-07-08 through 1993-07-12
2 1 1993-09-03 through 1993-09-03
- 1 1993-09-01 through 1993-09-01
- 1 1993-08-26 through 1993-08-26
- 1 1993-08-04 through 1993-08-04
- 1 1993-07-20 through 1993-07-20
- 1 1993-07-15 through 1993-07-15
- 1 1993-07-04 through 1993-07-04


 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Dates
1 10 1993-07-07 through 1993-07-16
2 9 1993-07-27 through 1993-08-04
3 5 1993-08-25 through 1993-08-29
4 3 1993-07-23 through 1993-07-25
- 3 1993-06-24 through 1993-06-26
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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

JFK only had 1 heatwave lasting 5 days that summer with the two consecutive 100° days in July. All the other 90° days were brief warm ups. Newark had 5 heatwaves spread out through the whole summer.

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 
for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Dates
Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1993-01-01 to 1993-12-31
1 5 1993-07-08 through 1993-07-12
2 1 1993-09-03 through 1993-09-03
- 1 1993-09-01 through 1993-09-01
- 1 1993-08-26 through 1993-08-26
- 1 1993-08-04 through 1993-08-04
- 1 1993-07-20 through 1993-07-20
- 1 1993-07-15 through 1993-07-15
- 1 1993-07-04 through 1993-07-04


 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Dates
1 10 1993-07-07 through 1993-07-16
2 9 1993-07-27 through 1993-08-04
3 5 1993-08-25 through 1993-08-29
4 3 1993-07-23 through 1993-07-25
- 3 1993-06-24 through 1993-06-26

Was that a sea breeze summer?  It felt significantly hotter than the summers we've had after the 2010-2013 era ended.

And even hotter than, say, 2005, which was a hot summer but also sea breeze influenced.  None of the recent sea breeze summers or 2005 for that matter hit 100 degrees at JFK.

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I do not know if we're yet getting an accurate idea as exactly how this summer will turn out. Just a tiny shift in the position of the heat ridge and the blocking will make a world of difference particularly in terms of number of 90+ days in the cities of the northeast. And the thunderstorm activity can also make a huge difference since it has the potential to be extremely active with lots of severe weather in our area. If we get stuck under a ring of fire the lower levels can only warm so much before t-storm activity caps temperatures in the upper 80s. Depending on exactly where that active zone sets up can be the difference between 30 90+ degree days and 10.

WX/PT

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s funny how the 500 mb pattern this June is turning out to be opposite of last year. We had that record ridge in the Pacific Northwest and east of New England. This year we are getting troughs in the Northwest and Northeast with a ridge in Plains and Rockies.

2D5EBCD2-23C9-4E2D-BC72-E17166A8CABB.png.3a594a22dd603248c801e37b8a781b2a.pngEDF2D3C2-2837-456D-B046-6312BD2EA809.thumb.png.eab3f52f2f44b70876f57c9af86da2cb.pngDE62D5DC-B5CE-43C6-B13D-6B5D8A9E0144.thumb.png.6e93aaa38dc126f204abf0d69795fc15.png

A9ED5FDF-42DD-415F-B0E7-764EB376CB92.thumb.png.d7ec42aa9bf42a726d0c439e3c20e18f.png

 

The plains ridge could eventually cause a large heat release if it keeps building. 

Maybe we'll see very hot days but of shorter duration

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13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Oh that's a shame, I think the airports all had July 2010 as the hottest.  I remember July 1999 and that was extremely hot too (20 90 degree days that month, to tie July 1993 if I remember correctly), but July 2010 was a tick hotter than that.  Did July 1955 hold the record before July 1999? I love these 11 year summers, it's too bad the pattern didn't hold last year.

Yes, July 1955 held the record until July 1999.

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Was that a sea breeze summer?  It felt significantly hotter than the summers we've had after the 2010-2013 era ended.

And even hotter than, say, 2005, which was a hot summer but also sea breeze influenced.  None of the recent sea breeze summers or 2005 for that matter hit 100 degrees at JFK.

Yeah, 1993 was a very strong sea breeze summer at JFK. It briefly relaxed in early July allowing JFK to reach 100° a few times. EWR was much warmer than all the other stations with dominant SW to W flow there. 
 

1993

EWR

Jun…+3.2

Jul….+4.8

Aug…+2.8

JFK

Jun….+1.1

Jul….+3.4

Aug…+0.3

 

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

i think ewr had sensor issues that summer. i don't buy 105 with these 850s

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. But surrounding sites were nearly as hot during the July heatwave. So it must have been a drought feedback process that allowed for so many 100°+ temperatures.

 

Data for WAYNE, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Precipitation 
1993-07-04 96 0.00
1993-07-05   0.00
1993-07-06   0.00
1993-07-07 98 0.00
1993-07-08 102 0.00
1993-07-09 102 0.00
1993-07-10 102 0.00
1993-07-11 98 T
1993-07-12 104 0.00
1993-07-13 94 0.00
1993-07-14 98 0.00
1993-07-15 94 0.12
     


 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Precipitation 
1993-07-04 97 0.00
1993-07-05 91 0.00
1993-07-06 87 0.00
1993-07-07 103 0.00
1993-07-08 105 0.00
1993-07-09 104 0.00
1993-07-10 105 0.00
1993-07-11 99 0.00
1993-07-12 97 0.00
1993-07-13 98 0.00
1993-07-14 90 0.44
1993-07-15 91 0.00
1993-07-16 91 0.00


1D5F47B0-3BB4-48C4-9519-10935930DFCA.png.f6467dbf277910c1dd1657edab0cee64.png
 

 

Daily Data for July 7, 1993 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Max Temperature 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103
CT DANBURY COOP 102
NJ LODI COOP 100


 

Daily Data for July 8, 1993 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Max Temperature 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105
NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 103
NJ WAYNE COOP 102
NJ LODI COOP 101
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 100
CT DANBURY COOP

100


 

Daily Data for July 9, 1993 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Max Temperature 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 104
NJ WAYNE COOP 102
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 101
NJ LODI COOP 101
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 101
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 100
NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 100


 

Daily Data for July 10, 1993 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Max Temperature 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105
CT DANBURY COOP 103
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 102
NJ LODI COOP 102
NJ WAYNE COOP 102
NY MINEOLA COOP 100
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 100
NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 100


 

 

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Abundant sunshine and close to seasonable temperatures will again prevail tomorrow. Afterward, the weather will grow somewhat more unsettled. No excessive heat appears likely through at least most of next week.

Excessive heat is likely to develop in the desert Southwest late in the week. Phoenix will likely see its first 110° or above temperatures of the year. During 1961-90, Phoenix averaged 15.9 110°+ days per year. For the 1991-20 base period, that number has increased to 20.8 days.

During the closing week of May, the MJO moved through Phase 6 with an amplitude as high as 1.909. The only case with an MJO passage through Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during that timeframe was 1998. In 1998, the second half of June was noticeably warmer than the first half. The MJO's ongoing progression and the state of Atlantic blocking could impact the outcome for the second half of June.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around May 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +23.62 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.094 today.

On June 3 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.010 (RMM). The June 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.994 (RMM).

 

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13 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, 1993 was a very strong sea breeze summer at JFK. It briefly relaxed in early July allowing JFK to reach 100° a few times. EWR was much warmer than all the other stations with dominant SW to W flow there. 
 

1993

EWR

Jun…+3.2

Jul….+4.8

Aug…+2.8

JFK

Jun….+1.1

Jul….+3.4

Aug…+0.3

 

and NYC tied their 90 degree record at 39 with 1991 

I think 1991 was another seabreeze summer but JFK did not reach 100?

Also was 1993 the last year before the NYC foliage issues cropped up?

I'm trying to remember....I think NYC was doing well in 1995, 1999 and 2002 also, so maybe the issues came after 2002?  2002 was our last drought/yellow lawn year if I remember correctly.

 

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13 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i think ewr had sensor issues that summer. i don't buy 105 with these 850s

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/070818.png

Screenshot_20220605-153436.jpg

they must have adjusted that temp on 7/11/93 downward back then I distinctly remember it was reported that EWR had 5 straight 100+ days while NYC had 3 straight 100+ days and JFK had 2 straight 100+ days.

EWR had 9 100+ days that year

Ah the good old days....

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13 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. But surrounding sites were nearly as hot during the July heatwave. So it must have been a drought feedback process that allowed for so many 100°+ temperatures.

 

Data for WAYNE, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Precipitation 
1993-07-04 96 0.00
1993-07-05   0.00
1993-07-06   0.00
1993-07-07 98 0.00
1993-07-08 102 0.00
1993-07-09 102 0.00
1993-07-10 102 0.00
1993-07-11 98 T
1993-07-12 104 0.00
1993-07-13 94 0.00
1993-07-14 98 0.00
1993-07-15 94 0.12
     


 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Precipitation 
1993-07-04 97 0.00
1993-07-05 91 0.00
1993-07-06 87 0.00
1993-07-07 103 0.00
1993-07-08 105 0.00
1993-07-09 104 0.00
1993-07-10 105 0.00
1993-07-11 99 0.00
1993-07-12 97 0.00
1993-07-13 98 0.00
1993-07-14 90 0.44
1993-07-15 91 0.00
1993-07-16 91 0.00


1D5F47B0-3BB4-48C4-9519-10935930DFCA.png.f6467dbf277910c1dd1657edab0cee64.png
 

 

Daily Data for July 7, 1993 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Max Temperature 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103
CT DANBURY COOP 102
NJ LODI COOP 100


 

Daily Data for July 8, 1993 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Max Temperature 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105
NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 103
NJ WAYNE COOP 102
NJ LODI COOP 101
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 100
CT DANBURY COOP

100


 

Daily Data for July 9, 1993 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Max Temperature 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 104
NJ WAYNE COOP 102
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 101
NJ LODI COOP 101
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 101
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 100
NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 100


 

Daily Data for July 10, 1993 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Max Temperature 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105
CT DANBURY COOP 103
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 102
NJ LODI COOP 102
NJ WAYNE COOP 102
NY MINEOLA COOP 100
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 100
NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 100


 

 

the good old fashioned scorcher summers!

lol can you imagine Bridgehampton hit 100?

That means Westhampton must've hit 100 too?

I wonder what's the farthest east 100 degree temps have ever gotten on Long Island?

To my knowledge Montauk has never reached 100, but Westhampton has.  Not sure about East Hampton or Block Island.

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Morning thoughts…

It will be sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 81°

Newark: 84°

Philadelphia: 84°

Clouds will increase tomorrow. There could be some late day or evening showers.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 76.9°; 15-Year: 77.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 78.8°; 15-Year: 79.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 80.4°; 15-Year: 80.7°

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

and NYC tied their 90 degree record at 39 with 1991 

I think 1991 was another seabreeze summer but JFK did not reach 100?

Also was 1993 the last year before the NYC foliage issues cropped up?

I'm trying to remember....I think NYC was doing well in 1995, 1999 and 2002 also, so maybe the issues came after 2002?  2002 was our last drought/yellow lawn year if I remember correctly.

 

Yeah, 1993 was the last time that NYC had 3 days in a row reaching 100°. The new ASOS was installed in November 1995. That’s around the time that the tree growth began to block the sensors. So NYC hasn’t been able to get 3 consecutive 100° days since then due to the cool in the deep shade and the cooling influence of the leaf transpiration. 

https://www.nytimes.com/1993/07/11/nyregion/heat-wave-records-rewritten-as-east-bakes-and-midwest-soaks.html

For the third consecutive day, temperatures in New York City exceeded 100 degrees -- something that had not happened since 1948. Just before 3 P.M. Central Park recorded 102 degrees, tying the record for the day, set in 1936. At Newark International Airport, it reached a record 105, the fourth straight day of triple-digit heat recorded there.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 71degs.(62/80) or -1.

Reached 76 here yesterday.

Today: 75-80, wind w., m. sunny, 66 tomorrow AM.

90's keep getting pushed further into the month.

Allow me to introduce the Re-Incarnated Twin Towers.        The MOS is whacked on the GFS.

1654495200-nJz77diSSj0.png

65*(45%RH) here at 7am.          Reached 76* late.

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Same theme this month with the marine influence keeping areas east of the Hudson cooler. 
 

PHL…+4.4

EWR…+3.2

NYC….+0.4

HPN…+0.4

LGA….-0.6

JFK….-0.7

BDR….-1.2

ISP…...0.0

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Another gorgeous day on tap - lots of sun filled blue skies and temperatures in the low 80s.  Should see more clouds building in at some point on Tue (6/7) and an bit unsettled the period through Sat (6/11) with rain chances and maybe a soaker in beteeen Thu or Sat *6/11).  Beyond there moderate back to warmer and guidance hints at a heat spike ahead of fathers day weekend / Wed (6/15) for a day or so as heights build east with a piece of the western heat.  We'll see how it evolves, until then what a day along the EC.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

 

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