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Summer max contest -- final results posted


Roger Smith
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Thanks for your entries. With the appearance of this table of forecasts, the contest is now officially closed to further entries and we'll see what happens. Forecasts are listed from top to lowest temperatures, DCA then each successive station to break ties. The number in brackets is your order of entry which may be needed to break ties.

 

___ <<< SUMMER MAXIMUM CONTEST __ 2022 >>> ___

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC

George BM _ (22) _________ 108 _ 109 _ 110 _ 110

Roger Smith _ (20) ________ 104 _ 106 _ 105 _ 107

StormchaserChuck! (4) ___ 103 _ 102 _ 101 _ 101

PrinceFrederickWx _(3) ___ 102 _ 100 _ 104 _ 103

yoda __ (23) _______________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 102

wxdude64 _ (18) __________101 _ 100 _ 102 _ 104

Rhino16 _ (12) _____________101 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102

HighStakes _ (26) _________101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 102

CAPE __ (24) ______________101 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102

NorthArlington101 _(1) ____101 __ 98 __ 99 _ 102

mattie g _ (16) ____________100 _ 103 _ 102 _ 102

RickinBaltimore (14) ______100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 102

nw baltimore wx (15) _____100 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101

WxUSAF __ (27) __________100 __ 99 _ 102 _ 102

87storms _ (7) ___________ 100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100

WinterWxLuvr (9) ________ 100 __ 98 __99 __ 99

nj2va ___ (8) _______________99 _ 101 _ 101 _ 103

biodhokie _ (6) ____________99 _ 101 _ 100 _ 100

peribonca _ (2) ____________99 _ 100 _ 102 _ 101

GramaxRefugee _ (5) _____ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100

Eskimo Joe _ (10) _________ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100

toolsheds _ (13) ___________99 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102

WxWatcher007 _ (25) _____99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102

Weather53 _ (17) __________99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101

Wxdavis5784 _ (11) ________98 _ 101 _ 103 _ 102

tplbge _ (19) _______________98 _ 100 __ 99 __ 99

LittleVillageWx _ (21) ______ 98 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99

_________________ ____________________

(current as of July 22) _____ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 98

(when recorded) _________ 6/17 _ 8/04 _ 8/04 _7/21*

* tied 7/24

 

Contest means __________100.4_ 100.5_ 101.3_ 101.9

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  • 3 weeks later...

Since DCA moved to the current location, they are averaging about one 100-degree day per year.  However, since 100-degree days are clustered, over the period of record, only about 1/3 of years have had a 100-degree day.  This has held over the past two decades, with 7 years of 21 reaching 100 degrees.  It has not hit 100 at DCA since August 2016.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Curious why many (most?) picked DCA and BWI to have higher max temps than IAD.  Any of the three can be the hottest on a given day, but it seems that on recent hot days, IAD has usually had the highest temperature, especially due to its favorable location for the local effects of downsloping winds.

 

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On 7/2/2022 at 12:50 AM, mattskiva said:

Curious why many (most?) picked DCA and BWI to have higher max temps than IAD.  Any of the three can be the hottest on a given day, but it seems that on recent hot days, IAD has usually had the highest temperature, especially due to its favorable location for the local effects of downsloping winds.

 

It varies.   Looking back the past 6 years to 2016, IAD was the winner last year and 2019 (which was a tie with BWI at 100)..BWI wins in 2018 & 2020, and ties in 2017 & 2019.  DCA wins in 2016 and ties with BWI in 2017.  

So... (that wasn't particularly well written was it?)...bottom line: in the past 6 years, IAD wins outright last year only.

  Only looking at a 1 degree difference most years, but in 2017 and 2018 IAD was 95 & 96 while the others were 98 & 99. 

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I have re-ordered the table of forecasts to show the current standings. 

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC ____ Errors to date ____ TOTALS

 

LittleVillageWx _ (21) ______ 98 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 _______ 1 _ 0 _ 0 _ 1 _______ 2

WinterWxLuvr (9) ________ 100 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _______ 1 _ 1 _ 0 _ 1 _______ 3

tplbge _ (19) _______________98 _ 100 __ 99 __ 99 _______ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _ 1 _______ 5

87storms _ (7) ___________ 100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 _______ 1 _ 2 _ 1 _ 2 _______ 6

Weather53 _ (17) __________99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _______ 0 _ 2 _ 1 _ 3 _______ 6 __ tiebreaker is 1st higher dep

GramaxRefugee _ (5) _____ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 _______ 0 _ 3 _ 2 _ 2 _______ 7

Eskimo Joe _ (10) _________ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 _______ 0 _ 3 _ 2 _ 2 _______ 7 __ tiebreaker is order of entry

NorthArlington101 _(1) ____101 __ 98 __ 99 _ 102 _______ 2 _ 1 _ 0 _ 4 _______ 7 __ tiebreakers (1st higher dep, then order of entry)

biodhokie _ (6) ____________99 _ 101 _ 100 _ 100 _______ 0 _ 4 _ 1 _ 2 _______ 7 __ tiebreaker is order of entry

WxWatcher007 _ (25) _____99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 _______ 0 _ 2 _ 1 _ 4 _______ 7 __ tiebreaker is order of entry

 

toolsheds _ (13) ___________99 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _______ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _ 4 _______ 8

nw baltimore wx (15) _____100 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _______ 1 _ 3 _ 2 _ 3 ________ 9

peribonca _ (2) ____________99 _ 100 _ 102 _ 101 _______ 0 _ 3 _ 3 _ 3 _______ 9 __ tiebreaker is 2nd higher dep (3 vs 2)

CAPE __ (24) ______________101 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 ______ 2 _ 2 _ 1 _ 4 ________ 9 __ tiebreaker is 1st higher dep

HighStakes _ (26) _________101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 102 ______ 2 _ 2 _ 2 _ 4 _______ 10

Rhino16 _ (12) _____________101 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 ______ 2 _ 3 _ 1 _ 4 _______ 10 __ tiebreaker is 2nd higher dep (3 vs 2)

WxUSAF __ (27) __________ 100 __ 99 _ 102 _ 102 ______ 1 _ 2 _ 3 _ 4 _______ 10 __ tiebreaker is order of entry

RickinBaltimore (14) ______100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _______ 1 _ 4 _ 2 _ 4 _______ 11

nj2va ___ (8) _______________99 _ 101 _ 101 _ 103 _______ 0 _ 4 _ 2 _ 5 _______ 11 __ tiebreaker is 1st higher dep

 

Contest means __________100.4_ 100.5_ 101.3_ 101.9 _____ 1.4 _ 3.5 _2.3 _3.9 ______ 11.1

 

yoda __ (23) _______________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 102 ______ 3 _ 3 _ 2 _ 4 ______ 12

Wxdavis5784 _ (11) ________98 _ 101 _ 103 _ 102 _______ 1 _ 4 _ 4 _ 4 ______ 13

 

StormchaserChuck! (4) ___ 103 _ 102 _ 101 _ 101 ______ 4 _ 5 _ 2 _ 3 ______ 14

wxdude64 _ (18) __________101 _ 100 _ 102 _ 104 ______ 2 _ 3 _ 3 _ 6 ______ 14 __ tiebreaker is 1st higher dep

mattie g _ (16) ____________100 _ 103 _ 102 _ 102 ______ 1 _ 6 _ 3 _ 4 ______ 14 __ tiebreaker is 2nd higher dep (4 vs 3)

PrinceFrederickWx _(3) ___102 _ 100 _ 104 _ 103 ______ 3 _ 3 _ 5 _ 5 ______ 16 

Roger Smith _ (20) ________ 104 _ 106 _ 105 _ 107 _____ 5 _ 9 _ 6 _ 9 ______ 29

George BM _ (22) _________ 108 _ 109 _ 110 _ 110 ______ 9 _12 _11 _12 ______ 44

____________________________________

Tiebreaker info relates to the entry above, explaining why the entry with the note is ranked below that one.

In one case a rank is a combination of two different tie breakers relating to entries above then below

_________________ ____________________

(current as of July 22) _____ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 98

(when recorded) _________ 6/17 _ 8/04 _ 8/04 _7/21*

* tied 7/24

 

This table will be adjusted if any new seasonal max values are reported.

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I can't see these values being exceeded now, so this is probably the contest wrap ... 

 

Rank _FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC ____ Errors to date ____ TOTALS

 

_01 __LittleVillageWx _ (21) ______ 98 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 _______ 1 _ 0 _ 0 _ 1 _______ 2

_02 __WinterWxLuvr (9) ________ 100 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _______ 1 _ 1 _ 0 _ 1 _______ 3

_03 __tplbge _ (19) _______________98 _ 100 __ 99 __ 99 _______ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _ 1 _______ 5

_04 __87storms _ (7) ___________ 100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 _______ 1 _ 2 _ 1 _ 2 _______ 6

_05 __Weather53 _ (17) __________99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _______ 0 _ 2 _ 1 _ 3 _______ 6 __ tiebreaker 04/05 is 1st higher dep

_06 __GramaxRefugee _ (5) _____ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 _______ 0 _ 3 _ 2 _ 2 _______ 7

_07 __Eskimo Joe _ (10) _________ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 _______ 0 _ 3 _ 2 _ 2 _______ 7 __ tiebreaker 06/07 is order of entry

_08 __NorthArlington101 _(1) ____101 __ 98 __ 99 _ 102 _______ 2 _ 1 _ 0 _ 4 _______ 7 __ tiebreaker 07/08 is 1st higher dep

_09 __biodhokie _ (6) ____________99 _ 101 _ 100 _ 100 _______ 0 _ 4 _ 1 _ 2 _______ 7 __ tiebreaker 08/09 is order of entry

_10 __WxWatcher007 _ (25) _____99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 _______ 0 _ 2 _ 1 _ 4 _______ 7 __ tiebreaker 09/10 is order of entry

 

_11 __toolsheds _ (13) ___________99 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _______ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _ 4 _______ 8

_12 __nw baltimore wx (15) _____100 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _______ 1 _ 3 _ 2 _ 3 ________ 9

_13 __peribonca _ (2) ____________99 _ 100 _ 102 _ 101 _______ 0 _ 3 _ 3 _ 3 _______ 9 __ tiebreaker 12/13 is 2nd higher dep (3 vs 2)

_14 __CAPE __ (24) ______________101 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 ______ 2 _ 2 _ 1 _ 4 ________ 9 __ tiebreaker 13/14 is 1st higher dep

_15 __HighStakes _ (26) _________101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 102 ______ 2 _ 2 _ 2 _ 4 _______ 10

_16 __Rhino16 _ (12) _____________101 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 ______ 2 _ 3 _ 1 _ 4 _______ 10 __ tiebreaker 15/16 is 2nd higher dep (3 vs 2)

_17 __WxUSAF __ (27) __________ 100 __ 99 _ 102 _ 102 ______ 1 _ 2 _ 3 _ 4 _______ 10 __ tiebreaker 16/17 is order of entry

_18 __RickinBaltimore (14) ______100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _______ 1 _ 4 _ 2 _ 4 _______ 11

_19 __nj2va ___ (8) _______________99 _ 101 _ 101 _ 103 _______ 0 _ 4 _ 2 _ 5 _______ 11 __ tiebreaker 18/19 is 1st higher dep

 

_ 20 __Contest means __________100.4_ 100.5_ 101.3_ 101.9 _____ 1.4 _ 3.5 _2.3 _3.9 ______ 11.1

 

_20 __yoda __ (23) _______________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 102 ______ 3 _ 3 _ 2 _ 4 ______ 12

_21 __Wxdavis5784 _ (11) ________98 _ 101 _ 103 _ 102 _______ 1 _ 4 _ 4 _ 4 ______ 13

_22 __StormchaserChuck! (4) ___ 103 _ 102 _ 101 _ 101 ______ 4 _ 5 _ 2 _ 3 ______ 14

_23 __wxdude64 _ (18) __________101 _ 100 _ 102 _ 104 ______ 2 _ 3 _ 3 _ 6 ______ 14 __ tiebreaker 22/23 is 1st higher dep

_24 __mattie g _ (16) ____________100 _ 103 _ 102 _ 102 ______ 1 _ 6 _ 3 _ 4 ______ 14 __ tiebreaker 23/24 is 2nd higher dep (4 vs 3)

_25 __PrinceFrederickWx _(3) ___102 _ 100 _ 104 _ 103 ______ 3 _ 3 _ 5 _ 5 ______ 16 

_26 __Roger Smith _ (20) ________ 104 _ 106 _ 105 _ 107 _____ 5 _ 9 _ 6 _ 9 ______ 29

_27 __George BM _ (22) _________ 108 _ 109 _ 110 _ 110 ______ 9 _12 _11 _12 ______ 44

____________________________________

Tiebreaker info relates to the entry above, explaining why the entry with the note is ranked below that one.

In one case a rank is a combination of two different tie breakers relating to entries above then below

_________________ ____________________

 

Congrats to LittleVillageWx with a one-point win over WinterWxLuvr

(will keep an eye on temps just in case but I don't foresee this changing)

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  • Roger Smith changed the title to Summer max contest -- final results posted
On 9/25/2022 at 4:37 PM, Roger Smith said:

I can't see these values being exceeded now, so this is probably the contest wrap ... 

 

Rank _FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC ____ Errors to date ____ TOTALS

 

_01 __LittleVillageWx _ (21) ______ 98 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 _______ 1 _ 0 _ 0 _ 1 _______ 2

_02 __WinterWxLuvr (9) ________ 100 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _______ 1 _ 1 _ 0 _ 1 _______ 3

_03 __tplbge _ (19) _______________98 _ 100 __ 99 __ 99 _______ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _ 1 _______ 5

_04 __87storms _ (7) ___________ 100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 _______ 1 _ 2 _ 1 _ 2 _______ 6

_05 __Weather53 _ (17) __________99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _______ 0 _ 2 _ 1 _ 3 _______ 6 __ tiebreaker 04/05 is 1st higher dep

_06 __GramaxRefugee _ (5) _____ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 _______ 0 _ 3 _ 2 _ 2 _______ 7

_07 __Eskimo Joe _ (10) _________ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 _______ 0 _ 3 _ 2 _ 2 _______ 7 __ tiebreaker 06/07 is order of entry

_08 __NorthArlington101 _(1) ____101 __ 98 __ 99 _ 102 _______ 2 _ 1 _ 0 _ 4 _______ 7 __ tiebreaker 07/08 is 1st higher dep

_09 __biodhokie _ (6) ____________99 _ 101 _ 100 _ 100 _______ 0 _ 4 _ 1 _ 2 _______ 7 __ tiebreaker 08/09 is order of entry

_10 __WxWatcher007 _ (25) _____99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 _______ 0 _ 2 _ 1 _ 4 _______ 7 __ tiebreaker 09/10 is order of entry

 

_11 __toolsheds _ (13) ___________99 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _______ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _ 4 _______ 8

_12 __nw baltimore wx (15) _____100 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _______ 1 _ 3 _ 2 _ 3 ________ 9

_13 __peribonca _ (2) ____________99 _ 100 _ 102 _ 101 _______ 0 _ 3 _ 3 _ 3 _______ 9 __ tiebreaker 12/13 is 2nd higher dep (3 vs 2)

_14 __CAPE __ (24) ______________101 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 ______ 2 _ 2 _ 1 _ 4 ________ 9 __ tiebreaker 13/14 is 1st higher dep

_15 __HighStakes _ (26) _________101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 102 ______ 2 _ 2 _ 2 _ 4 _______ 10

_16 __Rhino16 _ (12) _____________101 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 ______ 2 _ 3 _ 1 _ 4 _______ 10 __ tiebreaker 15/16 is 2nd higher dep (3 vs 2)

_17 __WxUSAF __ (27) __________ 100 __ 99 _ 102 _ 102 ______ 1 _ 2 _ 3 _ 4 _______ 10 __ tiebreaker 16/17 is order of entry

_18 __RickinBaltimore (14) ______100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _______ 1 _ 4 _ 2 _ 4 _______ 11

_19 __nj2va ___ (8) _______________99 _ 101 _ 101 _ 103 _______ 0 _ 4 _ 2 _ 5 _______ 11 __ tiebreaker 18/19 is 1st higher dep

 

_ 20 __Contest means __________100.4_ 100.5_ 101.3_ 101.9 _____ 1.4 _ 3.5 _2.3 _3.9 ______ 11.1

 

_20 __yoda __ (23) _______________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 102 ______ 3 _ 3 _ 2 _ 4 ______ 12

_21 __Wxdavis5784 _ (11) ________98 _ 101 _ 103 _ 102 _______ 1 _ 4 _ 4 _ 4 ______ 13

_22 __StormchaserChuck! (4) ___ 103 _ 102 _ 101 _ 101 ______ 4 _ 5 _ 2 _ 3 ______ 14

_23 __wxdude64 _ (18) __________101 _ 100 _ 102 _ 104 ______ 2 _ 3 _ 3 _ 6 ______ 14 __ tiebreaker 22/23 is 1st higher dep

_24 __mattie g _ (16) ____________100 _ 103 _ 102 _ 102 ______ 1 _ 6 _ 3 _ 4 ______ 14 __ tiebreaker 23/24 is 2nd higher dep (4 vs 3)

_25 __PrinceFrederickWx _(3) ___102 _ 100 _ 104 _ 103 ______ 3 _ 3 _ 5 _ 5 ______ 16 

_26 __Roger Smith _ (20) ________ 104 _ 106 _ 105 _ 107 _____ 5 _ 9 _ 6 _ 9 ______ 29

_27 __George BM _ (22) _________ 108 _ 109 _ 110 _ 110 ______ 9 _12 _11 _12 ______ 44

____________________________________

Tiebreaker info relates to the entry above, explaining why the entry with the note is ranked below that one.

In one case a rank is a combination of two different tie breakers relating to entries above then below

_________________ ____________________

 

Congrats to LittleVillageWx with a one-point win over WinterWxLuvr

(will keep an eye on temps just in case but I don't foresee this changing)

Silver medalist lol

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