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New England Met Spring Banter 2022


HoarfrostHubb
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Any Volvo folks here?  I just traded in my Jeep and am picking up my ‘22 XC60 tomorrow. 
 

The dealer offered me a couple hundred dollars less than what I paid for the Jeep three years ago. After months of research and weighing the pros and cons, I decided to pull the trigger. 
 

I’ll keep this car and baby it for the next 5-7 years for sure. 

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8 hours ago, tamarack said:

Maine state employees pay in 7.25% and the state 4.7% - used to be the same 7.25 until the previous administration reduced it, hoping to keep the retirement system solvent.  Of course, neither they nor employees pay anything into Social Security, so that 4.7 is the total state obligation.

 

6 hours ago, mreaves said:

We contribute 6.65% and the State contributes some as well but that varies.  We also pay into SS, as does the State

Guess I’m working for the wrong state 

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Any Volvo folks here?  I just traded in my Jeep and am picking up my ‘22 XC60 tomorrow. 
 
The dealer offered me a couple hundred dollars less than what I paid for the Jeep three years ago. After months of research and weighing the pros and cons, I decided to pull the trigger. 
 
I’ll keep this car and baby it for the next 5-7 years for sure. 
Wife's 2021 V90 is really nice although some of the controls are needlessly complicated

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

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2 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Wife's 2021 V90 is really nice although some of the controls are needlessly complicated

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

Yeah, my impression of the infotainment is that it’s a bit complicated.  Everyday functions can be buried within. 
 

The driving part was impressive. Quiet and the B5 mild hybrid engine still had some pep. 

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13 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Yeah, my impression of the infotainment is that it’s a bit complicated.  Everyday functions can be buried within. 
 

The driving part was impressive. Quiet and the B5 mild hybrid engine still had some pep. 

Here she is. 
 

52E57AC9-3727-4AE3-8A91-B267BC9774FC.jpeg

2660FE66-53C3-4F65-BBCE-154354BA7976.jpeg

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Market rally from yesterday’s fed decision to raise rates has rolled over completely this am. You can’t raise rates or tighten policy in a system that has been on central bank zero interest rate life support since 2008. I assume most intelligent folks on tv just can’t speak the truth and don’t want to spread “Fud” but it’s sort of they don’t have any other tools and they are gonna raise rates till something blows up and then print to respond to that crisis .
 

The plan is such a loser , That is raise rates to slow demand to bring down inflation since they can’t (fix the supply side issues) print oil or wheat or cheap houses or cheap healthcare. All they are really doing is unwinding stock gains, raising unemployment (soon)  and reversing  some housing price gains. They must be think tanking and praying for a existential threat to take the blame from This feeble current  plan where they actually can’t give the medicine to the market they did in 1980 simply because the debt construct 42 years later can’t stay solvent thru even a fraction of the interest rate rises We had then ( and the market knows this) . 
 

Best path forward is Commodity excess unwinds as something is forced in Ukraine, China is pressured to end zero Covid , and then the fed prints again and kicks the can. *If the deflationary Forces of efficient supply chains can be restored (which should also unwind commodity speculation) you would see inflation as measured by CPI fall quickly on year over year basis and then the fed could do back to QE , and supporting asset prices at levels necessary to keep a sick system alive*^  . There is not a better less painful choice .
 

Unless it’s been determined the current global monetary system with US on top  is best to be shelved and is no longer stable enough , in which case the fed plan risks accomplishing that thru crisis and we would enter a period Beyond a recession, a period of uncertainty and trouble that has occurred when a leading world power loses the reserve currency as well as the global system built around that. It’s really not some far off idea, regardless If it’s depressing .

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2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Market rally from yesterday’s fed decision to raise rates has rolled over completely this am. You can’t raise rates or tighten policy in a system that has been on central bank zero interest rate life support since 2008. I assume most intelligent folks on tv just can’t speak the truth and don’t want to spread “Fud” but it’s sort of they don’t have any other tools and they are gonna raise rates till something blows up and then print to respond to that crisis .
 

The plan is such a loser , That is raise rates to slow demand to bring down inflation since they can’t (fix the supply side issues) print oil or wheat or cheap houses or cheap healthcare. All they are really doing is unwinding stock gains, raising unemployment (soon)  and reversing  some housing price gains. They must be think tanking and praying for a existential threat to take the blame from This feeble current  plan where they actually can’t give the medicine to the market they did in 1980 simply because the debt construct 42 years later can’t stay solvent thru even a fraction of the interest rate rises We had then ( and the market knows this) . 
 

Best path forward is Commodity excess unwinds as something is forced in Ukraine, China is pressured to end zero Covid , and then the fed prints again and kicks the can. *If the deflationary Forces of efficient supply chains can be restored (which should also unwind commodity speculation) you would see inflation as measured by CPI fall quickly on year over year basis and then the fed could do back to QE , and supporting asset prices at levels necessary to keep a sick system alive*^  . There is not a better less painful choice .
 

Unless it’s been determined the current global monetary system with US on top  is best to be shelved and is no longer stable enough , in which case the fed plan risks accomplishing that thru crisis and we would enter a period Beyond a recession, a period of uncertainty and trouble that has occurred when a leading world power loses the reserve currency as well as the global system built around that. It’s really not some far off idea, regardless If it’s depressing .

What else are they supposed to do? I almost wonder if they should have  raised it a bit more to really put a branch into the spokes of the market, but at least that rips the band aid off quicker.

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11 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

What else are they supposed to do? I almost wonder if they should have  raised it a bit more to really put a branch into the spokes of the market, but at least that rips the band aid off quicker.

The elephant in the room is the system is sick , has been for over a decade and they don’t have the tools to fix the  supply side inflation problems anyway . But , they can’t say that . 
 

They / We need War in Ukraine to end to get rid of commodity bubble prices that have been piggybacking the Pinched supply of gas/ wheat etc And then we NEED the deflationary forces of efficient global supply chains to be restored to bring down the Covid supply side inflation that China has lengthened with their Zero  Covid Policy  nonsense.  Fed has zero influence on those Major factors. 

Also fed playbook for last 15 years has been CUT rates , boost asset prices (401k/ houses ) to keep consumers feeling confident and spending . Our debt is thru the roof so interest rates need to be kept low to service it and or roll it over . Raise rates makes things Worse . They need those external things to be solved , Then since they are no longer handing out 2k stimmy checks inflation will come down to a point where they can kick the can and cut rates again  . There is zero evidence of any other medium to long term solutions in such a debt ridden system dependent on consumption and elevated asset prices  .

 

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“The selloff has erased nearly $3 trillion from U.S. retirement accounts, according to Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. By her calculations, 401(k) plan participants have lost about $1.4 trillion from their accounts since the end of 2021. People with IRAs — most of which are 401(k) rollovers — have lost $2 trillion this year.”

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1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

“The selloff has erased nearly $3 trillion from U.S. retirement accounts, according to Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. By her calculations, 401(k) plan participants have lost about $1.4 trillion from their accounts since the end of 2021. People with IRAs — most of which are 401(k) rollovers — have lost $2 trillion this year.”

For us younger folks with another 25-30+ working years left, everything is going on sale. So long as we keep our jobs, keep your head down and stay the course. 

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1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

For us younger folks with another 25-30+ working years left, everything is going on sale. So long as we keep our jobs, keep your head down and stay the course. 

yeah..you're basically just averaging down your 401k/Roths  at this point..which is a good thing long term. 

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4 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

“The selloff has erased nearly $3 trillion from U.S. retirement accounts, according to Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. By her calculations, 401(k) plan participants have lost about $1.4 trillion from their accounts since the end of 2021. People with IRAs — most of which are 401(k) rollovers — have lost $2 trillion this year.”

Biden voters cowering in shame 

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5 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

im still averaging down on my crypto...anyone with me? 

No . I still see a lot of downside risk from liquidation potential and very little upside with fed raising rates 

Hedge funds are probably targeting weaker protocols that have taken out large loans they had no business taking on .. and they are hunting them and trying to liquidate them and if they can there could be rapid Further falls in Ether and BTC 

Michael Saylor is not a model of risk management to follow But hey he’s got balls.

 

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46 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

No . I still see a lot of downside risk from liquidation potential and very little upside with fed raising rates 

Hedge funds are probably targeting weaker protocols that have taken out large loans they had no business taking on .. and they are hunting them and trying to liquidate them and if they can there could be rapid Further falls in Ether and BTC 

Michael Saylor is not a model of risk management to follow But hey he’s got balls.

 

He's not a model of probity either. Didn't he get busted for accounting fraud when the last tech bubble burst? Why anyone follows him is beyond me, but to each his own.

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6 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Biden voters cowering in shame 

Not to wade into a political discussion but looking back over presidencies I gained the most in the Obama years, lost the most under W, with just about everyone else fairly similar although I didn’t get serious until late in the Reagan presidency so not enough data to judge.   
 

The S&P  500  gained 20% 1/20/2021-1/20/2022.   However, 1/20/2022-now it’s given it all back.   As I was telling someone recently....”the next potus will come in on an up cycle and take all the credit while the predecessor got all the blame”.   That’s always the way it’s been and if I were in politics I’d do the same.  

Meanwhile, I have very good and smart advisors so I’m riding it out with obviously less risk than if I were your age.   IOW-if you’re young who cares and if you’re old too exposed shame on you.
 

We have some issues that need some balls to fix but I’m not sure anymore in politics can do it.   We can draft Pickles?   He’d make sure we got snow at least!

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9 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

No . I still see a lot of downside risk from liquidation potential and very little upside with fed raising rates 

Hedge funds are probably targeting weaker protocols that have taken out large loans they had no business taking on .. and they are hunting them and trying to liquidate them and if they can there could be rapid Further falls in Ether and BTC 

Michael Saylor is not a model of risk management to follow But hey he’s got balls.

 

So when will the govt introduce/forcefeed their digital currency and tell us all why it'll be the best thing since sliced bread?

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16 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Biden voters cowering in shame 

The crash would've happened no matter who was in charge. Poor pandemic fiscal & monetary policies guaranteed it. 

The excess money printing was done under Trump & he wanted another 2K in stimulus.

Funny enough Dems would've been better off long term if Trump got re-elected as all the blame would've been geared towards Republicans. 

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How accurate is an oil life indicator on a newer vehicle? I have a 2019 Honda Accord sport.

Ive driven about 7k miles since buying it, and the oil life indicator is still reading 40% oil life left. That means I’ll probably get to 10k before it comes on and recommends service.

Could this possibly be correct?

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