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3/12 Event: Winters Last Hurrah at Least East of Mountains


Weather Will
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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@HighStakes March is where it’s at up here. In my 15 years here we’ve had a warning level March snow 10 times.  Feb is skewed by that ~70” month in 2010 but if you take that one year out March is by far our snowiest month!  

march>December it seems from this point on. its actually sad....i love December snow

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@HighStakes March is where it’s at up here. In my 15 years here we’ve had a warning level March snow 10 times.  Feb is skewed by that ~70” month in 2010 but if you take that one year out March is by far our snowiest month!  

No Doubt! I've liked this set up for tomorrow all along. If we fail then it's probably because the heavier band shifts east a bit not because the cold is delayed. This isn't some marginal crappy rate dependent cold coming into our area. That's my take, I've been wrong plenty times but I think tomorrow works out for a lot of us. For our part of the sub forum specifically this is a classic March set up.

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3 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

No Doubt! I've liked this set up for tomorrow all along. If we fail then it's probably because the heavier band shifts east a bit not because the cold is delayed. This isn't some marginal crappy rate dependent cold coming into our area. That's my take, I've been wrong plenty times but I think tomorrow works out for a lot of us. For our part of the sub forum specifically this is a classic March set up.

I agree 

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15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS is slower with the transition to snow and has more sleet than the models that are really slamming us. Good news is I trust the GFS the least to get those details right.

GFS has trended colder (especially from its 18Z run yesterday), just looking at the 2-m temperatures at 12Z tomorrow.  It's nearly freezing in the metro areas.

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4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

I am sure they will update if and when needed.  Their discussion earlier this morning mentioned that they wanted to assess the guidance that comes in this morning and early afternoon.

Looking like a consensus around a solid 2-4” advisory event for the metros is building. Would like to see 12z and especially 18z continue this trend and it’s game on there IMO. Highly depends on rates once the transition occurs.  

For my area over to emmitsburg, Winchester, and on east to PSUland — this is shaping into a money march setup. Warnings looking likely for our tier by tonight. 

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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

HRRR RGEM NAM blend is a solid 6”+ storm here. I taketh. 
 

 

NWS is going to bust badly in Baltimore city if current trends hold. 

LWX has every reason to play this storm conservatively for all of the usual reasons (March, temps chasing precip, etc). That being said, I do agree there is an above average potential for this to "boom" for us and I'm cautiously optimistic about this setup along and west of I-95.

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3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Looking like a consensus around a solid 2-4” advisory event for the metros is building. Would like to see 12z and especially 18z continue this trend and it’s game on there

For my area over to emmitsburg, Winchester, and on east to PSUland — this is a money march setup. 

Agree.  I would hope we can score a decent, solid 2-4" event in most areas (there will be more for the N/W folks obviously).  This could be a neat memorable event to see off the winter!  Snow, wind, sharply falling temperatures!

ETA:  After this event, I'd be perfectly content to go full-on @mappy for spring!! :lol:  Not that there's much choice, because there's literally nothing wintry afterward!

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Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

Agree.  I would hope we can score a decent, solid 2-4" event in most areas (there will be more for the N/W folks obviously).  This could be a neat memorable event to see off the winter!  Snow, wind, sharply falling temperatures!

If I manage to get 4-6” of snow in 6ish hours with rapidly crashing temps and 30-40+mph winds out of this storm… a storm that looked dead 48 hours out… in march nonetheless.. that’d be a GREAT way to send winter off, no doubt. 

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HRRR NAM Euro RGEM - all on board. Probably the combination we want on our side at this juncture (sub 24 hours).
 

Only “hold out” of importance is the GFS, which still paints a few inches over the entire sub forum tomorrow. Barring some wild swing back in the other direction at 18z and 00z, I’m definitely liking our chances here. NW folks should be getting excited, no doubt. 

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

If I manage to get 4-6” of snow in 6ish hours with rapidly crashing temps and 30-40+mph winds out of this storm… a storm that looked dead 48 hours out… in march nonetheless.. that’d be a GREAT way to send winter off, no doubt. 

It's entirely possible the northern and western suburbs, especially those above say 600, 700 ft elevation, wind up with a truly impactful event. 

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6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

LWX has every reason to play this storm conservatively for all of the usual reasons (March, temps chasing precip, etc). That being said, I do agree there is an above average potential for this to "boom" for us and I'm cautiously optimistic about this setup along and west of I-95.

Same.  This is a highly dynamic system, can't ask for much more at this time of year.  I definitely get LWX being conservative for now and as I said, they made it clear in their discussion that they want to see the latest morning/afternoon guidance before pulling any triggers in terms of expanding the advisory area.  But even still, the current forecast makes it evident that tomorrow will be a rough day out.  They also did mention the likelihood of wind headlines, which is no surprise.

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7 hours ago, Ji said:
7 hours ago, Weather Will said:
Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-357 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM ESTSATURDAY...* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Northwest winds will gust around 45 to 55 mph.* WHERE...Portions of central and northern Maryland as well as portions of northern Virginia.* WHEN...From 6 AM to 3 PM EST Saturday. Rain will change to snow between 5 and 7 AM early Saturday morning. The steadiest snow will be through midday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility may
 

 

Wow 2-4 is pathetic. Their snow maps were 3-5 last night and models got better

Dude, STFU.   Please don't start this shit.  Everybody is having a good time, knowing we will be limited and lucky to get even what we get.  you are literally the ONLY person where being a petulant child.  If I got 1 to 3, I'd be ecstatic.   Just stop, seriously.  Even 3 days ago, this didn't look like a decent event for most of us and you out here crying about bonus snow in March with real cold air and high winds in a dynamic system.   You really need to stop.

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