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2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


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Chicago NWS

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1102 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

Concerns continue to focus on the best timing of possible
significant severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall this
afternoon into early this evening.

A couple of MCV`s, with ongoing convection are present to our
west-northwest. The first is located over northeastern IA, with
another one farther northwest into MN. Concerns are that the
extensive convection over southern MN into northeastern IA in
association with these features will mature into one or two east-
southeastward forward propagating MCS`s this afternoon into early
evening as surface warm front (and the strongly unstable airmass
to its south) shifts northward into parts of northern IL and
northwestern IN. The airmass within and near the warm sector is
already extremely unstable thanks to hot and humid surface
conditions (temperatures into the 80s amidst dew points well into
the 70s). In fact, MUCAPE was already calculated at nearly 6,000
J/KG on the 12z KILX RAOB, with mid-level lapse rates in excess of
8.5C per km in the EML.

The instability gradient is expected to set up right over northern
IL and southern WI into Lower Michigan this afternoon, and will
essentially offer the pathway for any forward propagating MCS`s
this afternoon. However, exactly where any MCS will propagate
remains uncertain and will be tied to *when* the system develops.
An earlier development over far western Wisconsin would place our
area in the crosshairs, while a later development over eastern
Wisconsin would favor a path entirely outside our area and in
Lower Michigan. At any rate, the MCS will have the potential to
produce significant severe winds in excess of 75 mph given the
very impressive thermodyamics. Moreover, deep layer shear is
expected to be enhanced this afternoon as a 50+ kt enhanced mid-
level jet along the southern periphery of the MCVs shifts
overhead. Accordingly the threat for damaging hail and tornadoes
would exist, as well. And, not to be forgotten, torrential
downpours will also accompany these storms given PWATs at or just
above 2". It appears the main window of severe threat for the area
will be after 2 or 3 pm this afternoon through 7 or 8 pm this
evening.

KJB
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53 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

This sub is weird because different parts of it can experience the same season so differently. I remember 2012 as the most boring and stormless summer of my adult life; all those derechos went south/southeast of here. I've experienced a lot more thunderstorms this year than I had by this point in 2021 (although chasing is a part of that, since I drove to some storms I wouldn't have experienced at home), while others like @hardypalmguy are still getting the shaft.

Barely any thunder here this year.

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Just watching SW lower.  With no squall line and not a lot of outflow from the elevated activity over WI, the chance for an isolated tornado near the lake breeze seems higher to me.  SE winds plus lake breeze plus 50 kts of 0-6 shear would be scary if there is enough surface based instability.  That's pretty limited right now, but maybe a tongue of 1000-2000 SBCAPE will come north into the SW corner eventually.  The front seems kind of hung up at the moment.

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Looking ahead to Wednesday...00Z HRRR and 3KM NAM are in...both agree that the unchaseable Northwoods get rocked (again) but rather different solutions for southern areas, naturally. Looks like temperatures could still be hot enough that LCLs will be an issue for :twister:threat except perhaps if moisture pools along a boundary.

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49 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not many posters from the biggest threat area, but tomorrow looks nasty in parts of WI.

Excited for my late evening squall line. Maybe some QLCS fun 

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Not many posters from the biggest threat area, but tomorrow looks nasty in parts of WI.

Lots of folks are watching, though.  Madison lost power on Monday and I doubt anyone is looking for a repeat performance.

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20 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

trash forcing and poor diurnal timing aside, should still be a good amount of lingering instability given the airmass in place

Captain obvious here but the earlier it can get in here, the better.  

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I was 50/50 earlier in regards to heading to SW WI for today. Given terrain and questionable storm mode, opted not to head out.

Will continue to watch things evolve through the day, and keep a watch on the border region (Far S WI & Far N IL) should things look more interesting (16z HRRR Environment).

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