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Feb 23-25th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm
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7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It's fantastic up here! Just got here last night. Still had full snowcover when i left home, missing the disgusting melt and mild rain and enjoying some cold UP snow. Then come home Friday to fresh snow. Been a fun month!

we really need to add a pissed off/jealous  emoji on this forum to comment on posts

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19 minutes ago, Baum said:

you'll still be polishing that turd on Easter sunday most likely for a little frosting to add  some sweetness. enjoy.

 Only 8 weeks till spring.

^Have to admit the more he talks about how snowy the winters really are over the last decade the more it seems to verify in his backyard

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Not to steal Alek's final call, but this feels like around 4" here.  I suppose it could even go slightly over if things break favorably.  There are some steeper lapse rates aloft so could see some heavier bursts of snow at times.

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41 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

GFS still trying to make something of this but everything else looks like trash. Lol

you'd have killed for this event 30 days ago. Your lack of appreciation going to come back to haunt.

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50 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Always be humble. I will be happy myself later this week with 3 or 4 inches. Before we know it we will have squall lines rolling thru

good chunk of this board loves a good squall line.

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Looking like a nice fluffy 2-4/3-5 type deal with some lake enhancement. Getting to that time of year when getting heavier rates matter more toward pavement accums during the day, so the bulk of the snow falling after dark means no issues there.

Not really buying that heavier snow swath south idea like GFS is holding onto. Euro has a stout mid-level wave pivoting through while we're in the left exit region of the departing upper jet. That plus deep DGZ should mean 15-20:1 ratios are attainable as long as the strongest lift is well aligned with the DGZ.



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4 hours ago, Baum said:

you'd have killed for this event 30 days ago. Your lack of appreciation going to come back to haunt.

I would be ecstatic for a solid advisory event! No lack of appreciation here! I was saying most guidance has 1-2in which is sub advisory levels. But I will take what I can get! I was mostly saying this system is a letdown compared to last few systems but any winter precip is good to me. 

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Really great summary of the two waves for those in the LSX forecast area.

As was previously discussed, two relatively distinct rounds of
wintry precipitation will impact the region. The first round, forced
mainly be isentropic overrunning stimulated by a shortwave amidst
southwesterly mid-level flow, will draw wintry precipitation into
the region. Latest short-range ensembles and CAMs now indicate a
weaker, more confined area (largely along/south of I-70) of wintry
precipitation with this first round. From a conceptual standpoint,
this makes sense as the upper-level synoptic forcing and isentropic
ascent is not impressive by any stretch. Model soundings Wednesday
evening illustrate a sub-saturated DGZ, with a deep saturated layer
beneath that amidst modest lift. A stout warm nose that barely peaks
above freezing aloft can be discerned between I-70 and I-44, but any
hydrometeors that melt will most likely refreeze as sleet in the
deep cold layer beneath. Further south still, we will likely see
more mixing of rain and sleet where the warm layer is deeper. While
accumulations with this initial round will be lighter compared to
the next bout on Thursday (as the forcing within the system is so
weak), the onset timing coinciding with the evening rush hour will
likely lead to travel impacts.

Overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning, what weak
overrunning and forcing that does exist will further diminish and
precipitation will become lighter and more scattered across the
southern CWA. Some model soundings hint at the potential for
freezing drizzle during this "lull" overnight. A nearly-saturated
layer extending from near the surface to around 700mb exists
overnight south of I-70 with some modest lift in the layer. While
light, a glaze of ice cannot be ruled out for some during this
relative break in the system.

The more impressive of the two waves will move into the bi-state
area during the early morning on Thursday and will re-stimulate
precipitation areawide in time for the morning commute.
Deterministic guidance agrees that the orientation and depth of the
mid-level trough will not be favorable for more robust surface
cyclogenesis. While a low will be deepening, it will be slow to do
so given the weak amplification and diffluence in the mid/upper
levels. As such, moist isentropic ascent and overrunning would be
the main sources of forcing for this second round. This scenario is
supported in the isentropic fields among the deterministic guidance,
which shows more extensive and impressive isentropic lift across the
region.

Precipitation types will vary across the region tomorrow. North of I-
70 will see almost exclusively snow, but given the lack of a more
robust synoptic system any mesoscale banding that would cause more
intense localized snow totals are highly unlikely. Another aspect
working against higher snow totals: the DGZ never saturates in any
notable way, which severely decreases the efficiency of dendritic
growth. This scenario is further supported by the NBM interquartile
range for snow not including amounts larger than 4" in the northern
CWA. There is some raw guidance that suggests higher amounts, but
they are likely being influenced by sleet contamination. For the
area that will largely see accumulating snow and not much changing
precipitation type, a Winter Weather Advisory was issued this
afternoon.

South of this area, along I-70 south to just south of I-44, a
corridor of significant sleet is expected to develop and cause
notable impacts to travel for the morning commute Thursday. Model
soundings show more notable lift compared to the first wave, with a
largely-similar thermodynamic profile. NBM probabilities of sleet
are also relatively high in the mid/late morning through the
afternoon (topping out at 60%, but may still be too low). Sleet
accumulations up to 1" can be expected, which would be quite
impactful. As such, a Winter Storm Warning was issued for the
areas where sleet accumulations would exceed 0.5".

Further south still, the depth of the warm nose aloft will be much
more pronounced, which in turn makes the cold air below it more
shallow. This would be a much more favorable scenario for freezing
rain, especially if surfaces cool as precipitation falls with the
first wave of wintry mix Wednesday evening. That being said,
accumulations on roadways will still be limited as the sun angle for
this time of year and barely-freezing conditions will not promote
efficient accretion. Admittedly, this forecast may be a bit too
bullish on those ice totals, especially if the above-mentioned
limitations come to fruition. On elevated surfaces, which would
be a bit cooler, ice accretion would be more efficient and could
lead to downed tree limbs and power outages in southeast Missouri
and southwest Illinois. Given the potential for significant
impacts and ice accumulations, a Winter Storm Warning more
specifically for ice was issued across southeast Missouri and
southwest Illinois.

Precipitation wanes during the evening Thursday from west to east as
the system intensifies and ejects east out of the region.
Temperatures stay below average and skies begin to clear as our
third winter system in as many weeks comes to an end.
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3 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I would be ecstatic for a solid advisory event! No lack of appreciation here! I was saying most guidance has 1-2in which is sub advisory levels. But I will take what I can get! I was mostly saying this system is a letdown compared to last few systems but any winter precip is good to me. 

You get any thunder today?

 

Got woke up about 4:10 this morning with some good thunder and lightning, then torrential bursts of rainfall. Radar estimates of 1.5" but airport recordings overnight have been down for a while now.

 

Either way, been a long time since a good thunderstorm. I'll trade snow for that any day.

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1 hour ago, WeatherMonger said:

You get any thunder today?

 

Got woke up about 4:10 this morning with some good thunder and lightning, then torrential bursts of rainfall. Radar estimates of 1.5" but airport recordings overnight have been down for a while now.

 

Either way, been a long time since a good thunderstorm. I'll trade snow for that any day.

Had a few rumbles this morning! It was so nice. Let me know spring storms are just around corner. :wub:

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LOT honing in on MBY in this mornings AFD:

HOWEVER. ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF   
THIS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN KEYING IN ON AN AREA OF HIGHER   
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON THE NORTH SIDE, POSSIBLY TIED TO A NARROW   
DEFORMATION AXIS/MID-LEVEL FGEN AND AIDED BY SOME LAKE   
ENHANCEMENT.

call: 5" a lock.:weenie:

miss the RC/IZZI tag team on this event.

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this looks to be a fairly quick hitter here, modeled snow is right now from about 4 PM to 4 AM but this reminds me of those storms where dry air really eats at the back side and the end of snow comes flying through 3 to 4 hours before expected

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12Z Nam beginning to show it's hand.  Before you get too excited, the stuff in Mid-Ohio is sleet and freezing rain.  SE Michigan looks to take the cake with this one, at least with this model, on this run.  We are getting into the NAM's "accurate" range.  

namconus_asnow_ncus_17.png

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