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February 24/25 Potential Winter Storm


mikem81
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49 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Simply not true. There will be 1-4 inches from NYC up to Putnam county and some 1-2 inch type numbers on north shore as well. Now if you mean 6+ then I agree. 

There might be a little snow for NENJ, Putnam, Westchester etc. But will anybody be awake to see it? Sure looks like IP or ZR by daybreak except well north of the metro.

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12 minutes ago, eduggs said:

There might be a little snow for NENJ, Putnam, Westchester etc. But will anybody be awake to see it? Sure looks like IP or ZR by daybreak except well north of the metro.

Im not familiar with anybody's sleep patterns. I'm just saying there will be some snow and putnam could get 4 inches or so. 

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2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Im not familiar with anybody sleep patterns. I'm just saying there will be some snow and putnam could get 4 inches or so. 

That's a little disingenuous. You know as well as anybody else that most people are asleep at 4am.

I agree parts of Putnam could get something like 4 inches of snow. If I had to choose right now I would take the under. But I'm hoping that area gets hammered so I can get 4"

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1 minute ago, eduggs said:

That's a little disingenuous. You know as well as anybody else that most people are asleep at 4am.

I agree parts of Putnam could get something like 4 inches of snow. If I had to choose right now I would take the under. But I'm hoping that area gets hammered so I can get 4"

What does it matter if people are asleep? Does that not mean it won't snow? I have missed 8 inches of snow when it snowed at night. It will still be snowing north of city at 7am. 

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4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

What does it matter if people are asleep? Does that not mean it won't snow? I have missed 8 inches of snow when it snowed at night. It will still be snowing north of city at 7am. 

Falling snow that can be walked and played in is obviously more fun than previously fallen, ice-encrusted snow. We're all hoping the snow line isn't too far north. But there is not currently a lot of guidance that doesn't have it pretty far north by daybreak. Fingers crossed for a cold-south trend.

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30 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

What does it matter if people are asleep? Does that not mean it won't snow? I have missed 8 inches of snow when it snowed at night. It will still be snowing north of city at 7am. 

Don't think I've ever missed any snow at any time of the day or night in at least 35 years, lol.  

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22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

NAM is notably lower with heights. always a bit hesitant to believe a warmer solution given a strong HP in an ideal location

83811814-A4CC-44EA-A42C-48B6CCA72F5A.thumb.gif.96000be693b0a4f96fbc6fca363e3f64.gif

Yeah, I've said this elsewhere. Models tend to erode surface cold too quickly and not quickly enough for upper levels. 

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

NAM is notably lower with heights. always a bit hesitant to believe a warmer solution given a strong HP in an ideal location

 

Kind of a chicken or egg thing, no?

The strength and position of the high is dictated by the upper levels. So a model will tend to show shifts in height field that correspond to changes in surface pressure. But that doesn't mean that the high is causing the change - just that the surface features are happening in tandem with changes in the other surface and upper level features.

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The RGEM actually cools the mid-level during the event Thurs morning as the event progresses and a SLP develops well south of LI. The strengthening damning signature is evident. But by the time the column is below freezing, the dendritic growth zone is unsaturated and we are left with freezing drizzle. It looks like the RGEM goes to +3 or +4 at the warmest. If that were closer to +1 or even +2, I would have more confidence this ends up isothermal.

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Interesting trends so far tonight. Hopefully the colder outcomes happen and we don't see the usual bump north with SWFEs at the end. I don't buy it being more than 2-3" of snow to start around the city but it can be that to a ton of sleet and then a drizzly dry slot. If you're north of 84 you're still in a good shot at 6+.

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The GFS at 0z looks a lot like 18z. There are the usual minor localized differences, but that's mostly noise. I'm happy it didn't trend worse. This can still shift more wintry.

Model consensus has NYC right on the threshold... a shift colder and this is a significant wintry event. A shift warmer, and it's a minor nuisance event. The question for the northern suburbs is does this become a major snow event or mostly mix? And the question for the southern burbs is whether there is any impactful wintry precip. at all.

There's not much sense in guessing, but I'll do it anyway. I think warning snows stay north of I-84 with a lot of sleet between there and I-80. I think frozen accumulations decrease rapidly south of there with minimal impact south of the latitude of Raritan Bay.

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26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Interesting trends so far tonight. Hopefully the colder outcomes happen and we don't see the usual bump north with SWFEs at the end. I don't buy it being more than 2-3" of snow to start around the city but it can be that to a ton of sleet and then a drizzly dry slot. If you're north of 84 you're still in a good shot at 6+.

The NAM idea of starting as sleet and then flipping to snow for a time is not very realistic...the RGEM going sleet/freezing rain most of the event makes more sense 

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4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Almost the entire state of MA is 6+ (10:1) on every model. So jealous. It's been almost 13 months since I saw 6" of snow here in Morris County. For some areas this will be #3 or 4 this winter alone. Spoiled fckers. :P

13 months ? Jeez

I saw 2 storms 6+  this winter 

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