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Feb 12/13 Event Quest for Blues to Envelop More Rather Than Less


North Balti Zen
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Just now, DDweatherman said:

Yup, that was obvious aloft after h36. Starting to think who does have precip fire over them will get some heavy rates. Good forcing/fronto showing up. Will it be NW like GGEM/RGEM/HRRR or SE like this NAM run or the GFS. 

Seasonal trends. I'm expecting partly cloudy

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Just now, CAPE said:

The NAM is doing NAM things. It is erratic as eff- just look at its last 4 runs lol. That being said, it seems to be working its way towards the general idea of the better models, but swerving like a drunk along the path.

You’re right a drunk always finds his way home…just depends on what home?

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS clearly didn't understand the assignment. Once some of us began dubbing the GFS the new King, the pressure to perform must have gotten to it because it fell right back to the bottom of the pack as the most unreliable global model. 

The whole Gfs king thing was always overdone. It nailed one storm. Then people gave it credit when it simply wasn’t any worse than other globals on the next couple. Then it was awful a couple times. Different models will take turns with a hot hand in a specific pattern. But over the long run the euro is still best. It was just struggling for a time with a fast flow NS pattern. 
 

That said I am still impressed with the Gfs upgrade. It’s errors now are a lot less significant that in the past.  But the best method still remains a Gfs euro blend that accounts for the likely bias of each. Some compromise ends up correct most of the time. 

14 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Still snowing at 51, can’t ask for much more than this

I mean I didn’t expect the 8” it gave me last run but I’m supposed to be ok with the .04 it gives me this run just because it snows?  This run was a pretty significant step towards the SE and consensus of the better guidance which was totally expected. 

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7 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Isn't most of that from Sunday?

Exactly…. Why I am saying could be the last flakes of the year…I mean we have another southern slider to watch at the end of this upcoming work week which at least has a chance.  But as I stated in the long range thread, consensus from the ensembles. GEFS extended and last night EURO  weeklies are not good for the last week of February through at least the first week of March which puts us in Hail Mary territory for the second and third week of March.  Not trying to be pessimistic but that is my reading of the tea leaves from last night/ early this am data.

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