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February Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowmagnet
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22 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

LWX alluded to that in their disco and seemed to be saying they think the CAPE is underdone. They don't say why, though.

ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE  
NEARLY 80 KNOTS OF WINDS AT 850 WHICH SUGGEST THAT WE WILL HAVE  
SHEAR WELL OVER 60 KNOTS AS THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE   
REGION. ALTHOUGH CAPE AT THIS RANGE IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY  
LOW, I SUSPECT THE CAPE IS BEING UNDERDONE. IF WE ARE ABLE TO   
GET EVEN A FEW HUNDREDS OF CAPE COMBINING WITH 60+ KNOTS OF   
SHEAR, THE REGION COULD SEE A DECENT SVR THREAT.

This is around when I make the severe thread every year :lol: 

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5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

March 2nd a few years back was pretty cool.

I was about to say...the only time wind is worth getting somewhat excited about is when it does things like this...lol

20180304_122015.thumb.jpg.b5b9abc18e0e2485a3bab08ee7a532a5.jpg

While it was still a bit bittersweet because it came from a NE, Miller B-ish blizzard that just missed us, to have a pure wind event like that was pretty incredible (and somewhat anomalous, no?)

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42 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Signal for strong CF changing to possible frozen.  I think 3 days ago this was a driving rainstorm with very strong slp headed through Illinois or Indiana.  Hopefully the ns continues the seasonal trend and drags the boundary even quicker across :weenie:

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-east-instant_ptype-5164000.thumb.png.fe83dc1c717a493c2fbf9f9c9bf9427f.png

What is a CF?

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58 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'd like to know why we get this kind of track now when we couldn't earlier this winter when we had more cold...lol Is it something with shorter wavelengths making the tendencies of that particular season less? Shorter wavelengths?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_37.thumb.png.de3471153d548ccfe7bc6859f0055824.png

I hope this is rhetorical, but either way I won't attempt to answer your question based on a model simulation 10 days out that will never come to fruition.

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I hope this is rhetorical, but either way I won't attempt to answer your question based on a model simulation 10 days out that will never come to fruition.

Yeah it kinda is...but I've seen this happen in previous seasons where we couldn't get something tucked in all winter, yet in late Feb/March we'd get something but it would be too warm...Could just be random I guess, but I was curious whether shorter wavelengths don't behave the same way.

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah it kinda is...but I've seen this happen in previous seasons where we couldn't get something tucked in all winter, yet in late Feb/March we'd get something but it would be too warm...Could just be random I guess, but I was curious whether shorter wavelengths don't behave the same way.

Different outcomes than the early/mid winter 'seasonal trends' often occur in late winter/early Spring for a variety of reasons, but in general terms the atmosphere is warming and the base state and associated drivers are shifting. 

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14 hours ago, CAPE said:

Different outcomes than the early/mid winter 'seasonal trends' often occur in late winter/early Spring for a variety of reasons, but in general terms the atmosphere is warming and the base state and associated drivers are shifting. 

I've grown to love the back half of snow climo season. You get these killer warm days where you can start knocking out spring projects but just as quick as the warmth comes, it can get kicked right back out with a threat. Late Nina style winters that had front side cold can def flip warm and never come back. That's prob favored. My gut says the epo isn't done. I'm expecting the epo and pna ridges to come back into view or overhead within 2 weeks. Until then, time to start fencing my back yard and get ready to grow food. 

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I've grown to love the back half of snow climo season. You get these killer warm days where you can start knocking out spring projects but just as quick as the warmth comes, it can get kicked right back out with a threat. Late Nina style winters that had front side cold can def flip warm and never come back. That's prob favored. My gut says the epo isn't done. I'm expecting the epo and pna ridges to come back into view or overhead within 2 weeks. Until then, time to start fencing my back yard and get ready to grow food. 

I doubt we get a week+ favorable period for the rest of the snow season. I’d expect anymore snow chances will be a well-timed wave with a transient cold airmass and N/W will likely be heavily favored over the coastal plain. But it’s certainly possible we get another event or two. 

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I doubt we get a week+ favorable period for the rest of the snow season. I’d expect anymore snow chances will be a well-timed wave with a transient cold airmass and N/W will likely be heavily favored over the coastal plain. But it’s certainly possible we get another event or two. 

All my experience in this silly game tells me the exact same thing. We had our standard compressed cold/active period and now it's time to let it all go... but I can't shake the intuitive feeling. Maybe it's snowflakes falling. Maybe it's my subconscious weenie. Maybe it's the DMT. Not sure 

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I've grown to love the back half of snow climo season. You get these killer warm days where you can start knocking out spring projects but just as quick as the warmth comes, it can get kicked right back out with a threat. Late Nina style winters that had front side cold can def flip warm and never come back. That's prob favored. My gut says the epo isn't done. I'm expecting the epo and pna ridges to come back into view or overhead within 2 weeks. Until then, time to start fencing my back yard and get ready to grow food. 

:weenie:

1646524800-P4vZS0MDBsk.png

1647302400-TVX4Ohi9hhE.png

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3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Sawyer Picaridin changed my summer life.

I'll have to try that. I mostly get the mosquitoes under control by killing the larvae early. Always chiggers around though. Then there is the carpenter bee issue, although the traps keep them under control for the most part.

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Literally the only thing that bothers me about the warmer months is the return of Dark Fishing Spiders. They are pretty much the largest (4-4.5” leg-span) native spider in the US besides the desert tarantula. My house is in the woods on the bay. It could not be more of a perfect habitat for them. They are the only kill-on-sight bug/arachnid in my mind. Even if they are outside on the property, it’s BB gun time. They WILL get in the house. We have dark wood trim around everything. That is their favorite shit. 

Such god-awful creatures. 

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

I get mini depression thinking about the return of bugs and muggy Spring days, and all the work I will need to do outside. Inevitable.

And get in shape for me.  Late night model watching and snow days are fattening and boozy.  Seems like kicking that into gear is prudent based on LR trends….eh, I will wait for the day 15-16 event then get my life in order. 

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3 hours ago, T. August said:

Literally the only thing that bothers me about the warmer months is the return of Dark Fishing Spiders. They are pretty much the largest (4-4.5” leg-span) native spider in the US besides the desert tarantula. My house is in the woods on the bay. It could not be more of a perfect habitat for them. They are the only kill-on-sight bug/arachnid in my mind. Even if they are outside on the property, it’s BB gun time. They WILL get in the house. We have dark wood trim around everything. That is their favorite shit. 

Such god-awful creatures. 

Get this. Been using it for years around the perimeter of the house, door sills etc. Use a garden sprayer and spray every month in the Spring, Summer, and into the Fall. Great stuff.

https://www.domyown.com/suspend-sc-p-40.html?keyword=suspend sc&gclid=CjwKCAiA9aKQBhBREiwAyGP5lbkKF02o_641wOww3TPBLXPleQvJB5FdbZNn3Ir1s0ftj6C5RkbR8BoCJFwQAvD_BwE

 

eta- the residual it leaves is transparent, so it wont leave anything visible on the surfaces. That was one of my priorities when I selected it, given I have a log home.

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