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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

No it's not. GFS is on it's own right now. 

No it's not? I'm confused. I said the GFS wants nothing to do with the threat and you said "No, it's not".

Really odd since every other model trended west tonight but the GFS is a pretty major model that you wanted making favorable trends in order to increase confidence of a big hit and we haven't seen it yet. The Ukie coming way west is big though, could bode well for the Euro run.

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3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

The GFS is more than likely to not come around until the last minute. Likewise, this is not the GFS wheel house. 

If it is the GFS alone, you will have several very well respected models vs a global at short range. 

That's a good point. The GFS does tend to struggle with coastals but still, I'd really like to see it start trending in the right direction.

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5 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

No it's not? I'm confused. I said the GFS wants nothing to do with the threat and you said "No, it's not".

Really odd since every other model trended west tonight but the GFS is a pretty major model that you wanted making favorable trends in order to increase confidence of a big hit and we haven't seen it yet. The Ukie coming way west is big though, could bode well for the Euro run.

You said it was hard to jump on board when the GFS was so far east. I responded saying it's not hard to jump on board. Every other model came west and 18z Euro was a good run so GFS is on it's own. GFS is a lousy model tbh. 

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5 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Final cmc totals close up view

gem_2022-01-27-00Z_078_42.619_282.741_38

That's at 10-1 too kuchera says the ratios should be super good and actually shift the heaviest axis of snow west. Even if it's not as intense as depicted 12-1/13-1 would still be reasonable 

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ukie has snowier outputs than CMC which means the CMC is likely too low on amounts. 

Really curious to see what the Euro cooks up. Will it follow some of those intense western members?

Snowier than 19.5 for nyc? (Yes this includes ratios)

image.thumb.png.edf1cb7cee0ef21d44bf28d4b1b87c23.png

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Just now, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

I've been tracking East Coast Winter Storms for quite a while, and what the UKMET did was quite an eye-opener. 

Uhm, yes. 2" liquid from the city east and 20+ inches at 10:1 ratio. Would be a NAM like annihilation. Perfect track for us and upper lows blowing their top right over us.

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