Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[78Blizzard]

Something is off with the Pivotal algorithm re the 0z Ukie.  It shows 2.23" qpf in my hood, yet the snowfall is 15", a 7-1 ratio.  Same problem throughout all of NE.  The question is which one is off?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'll be ecstatic if I get that.

Back of my mind, I’m expecting it to slide east and fringe us and I’ll be pissed for jumping on the bandwagon, and not the snow result.

[MuddyWx]

not sure if already posted, but ukmet, 10:1

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Something is off with the Pivotal algorithm re the 0z Ukie.  It shows 2.23" qpf in my hood, yet the snowfall is 15", a 7-1 ratio.  Same problem throughout all of NE.  The question is which one is off?

Clown maps are off. UK runs warm in the mid levels but I’m not sure that’s the reason for the discrepancy. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, MuddyWx said:

not sure if already posted, but ukmet, 10:1

made a comment in the NYC forum something is off give 1 inch of qpf here but ony 5 inches of snow doesnt even make sense

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Back of my mind, I’m expecting it to slide east and fringe us and I’ll be pissed for jumping on the bandwagon, and not the snow result.

I'm in the all shook, all the time camp.  We due for a crushing though.

[DavisStraight]

8 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Something is off with the Pivotal algorithm re the 0z Ukie.  It shows 2.23" qpf in my hood, yet the snowfall is 15", a 7-1 ratio.  Same problem throughout all of NE.  The question is which one is off?

That should be 25+ with the cold air draining in..

[Thunderblizzard]

7 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Something is off with the Pivotal algorithm re the 0z Ukie.  It shows 2.23" qpf in my hood, yet the snowfall is 15", a 7-1 ratio.  Same problem throughout all of NE.  The question is which one is off?

Noticed that as well... HFD for example gets 1.1" of QPF but 7.6" of snow. 9.4" in ORH off of 1.4" liquid.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

made a comment in the NYC forum something is off give 1 inch of qpf here but ony 5 inches of snow doesnt even make sense

And the tight qof gradient can be where deform parks so toss the clown.

[ROOSTA]

4 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

Can we just acknowledge how eff’n lucky we are right now to be tracking this storm. A whiff is basically off the table. We are literally at the point of arguing who gets the most FEET! 
 

Life has honestly been so hard for a lot of us these past few years. It’s awesome to see a bunch of strangers come together with so much passion about one thing.

I don’t know James but this sounds like the type of storm he hoped for. Let’s finish this thing boys and bring it home for everyone.

Sounds like a motivational speech from either Knut Rockney or a DH Lawrence short.  

[Swiscaster]

23 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

I mean really?  This isn't Virginia

I’m highly offended! No one died!

Also, what is ”LBSW?”  Low Bombs Southwest?  Asking for a friend.  

[MuddyWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

made a comment in the NYC forum something is off give 1 inch of qpf here but ony 5 inches of snow doesnt even make sense

thanks for pointing out.. really weird. qpf is way better than that

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

not sure if already posted, but ukmet, 10:1

 

Lol, that looks like exactly what I was expecting until today's models started getting me greedy.

[subdude]

6 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

not sure if already posted, but ukmet, 10:1

Bringing everyone back to earth. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'm in the all shook, all the time camp.  We due for a crushing though.

I try to be positive with big dogs but I’ve learned to be ASATT too. Too many heartbreaks. 

[ice1972]

3 minutes ago, Swiscaster said:

I’m highly offended! No one died!

Also, what is ”LBSW?”  Low Bombs Southwest?  Asking for a friend.  

IDK what that means @40/70 Benchmark said it......

[OrangeCTWX]

16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ve bumped us up to 8-12”. wish the nam/euro is right but a compromise is more likely then an all out win.

Seems reasonable. Ryan is going with 12-20 for us so I’m going with that ha.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Swiscaster said:

I’m highly offended! No one died!

Also, what is ”LBSW?”  Low Bombs Southwest?  Asking for a friend.  

Close and technically correct. It’s Load blown southwest. 

[weathafella]

14 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Something is off with the Pivotal algorithm re the 0z Ukie.  It shows 2.23" qpf in my hood, yet the snowfall is 15", a 7-1 ratio.  Same problem throughout all of NE.  The question is which one is off?

Stick with Harvey.  He rarely chucks them unless he’s pretty confident 

[Greg]

3 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

IDK what that means @40/70 Benchmark said it......

LOAD BLOWN SOUTHWEST

[ice1972]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I try to be positive with big dogs but I’ve learned to be ASATT too. Too many heartbreaks. 

Its rare we get this close with the big dogs.......usually by now everyting settled down or a bad trend was obvious......this is the first legit 30 burger for me in 9 years and I am riding this mutha fuka the whole way - I dont care what any of you say.......if I get under the death band like in Feb 2013 the CRV literally doesn't matter......had 30+ with that monster.....lets fukin do that again......is now the time to point out how this season should have behaved itself up to now and we would have faced having monster pack heading into february? No I'm not supposed to point that out......the mood matters and while the immediate mood is awesome the season mood is a D- which will be a C+ if I can get my 50 burger.......

[CT Rain]

3 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Seems reasonable. Ryan is going with 12-20 for us so I’m going with that ha.

The GFS is about 1" of liquid for HFD/HVN. Given the fact it's busy bumping west and catching up with everything else you have to give the nod to the Euro.

Given somewhat better than 10:1 ratios even a straight GFS/Euro compromise would get you 12-20.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

Seems reasonable. Ryan is going with 12-20 for us so I’m going with that ha.

Yea, Always go with the higher range lol. Wiz has 12-18” and both he and Ryan are typically conservative while I (not that I am anyone of relevance) usually have my weenie out early. 

[78Blizzard]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And the tight qof gradient can be where deform parks so toss the clown.

So the deform is all over NE, lol.

[ice1972]

1 minute ago, Greg said:

LOAD BLOWN SOUTHWEST

lol so like splooge all over Staten Island, Paramus, Patersen, Manhattan, White Plains.....fuk that

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The fun part is this can still go either more East or more West...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Its rare we get this close with the big dogs.......usually by now everyting settled down or a bad trend was obvious......this is the first legit 30 burger for me in 9 years and I am riding this mutha fuka the whole way - I dont care what any of you say.......if I get under the death band like in Feb 2013 the CRV literally doesn't matter......had 30+ with that monster.....lets fukin do that again......is now the time to point out how this season should have behaved itself up to now and we would have faced having monster pack heading into february? No I'm not supposed to point that out......the mood matters and while the immediate mood is awesome the season mood is a D- which will be a C+ if I can get my 50 burger.......

I hear ya. I would automatically give any winter an A+ if I ever smashed 30. It’s never happened to me so I wouldn’t care what the winter did before or what it would do after. Just me…

[CT Rain]

One reason to be bullish back to the west into CT and LI... even the GFS with its wonky depiction has a great look to the west. In fact it introduces dry slot issues for Boston. Check out the 300K isentropic surface at 18z. I also attached an area averaged sounding for SE Mass.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

So the deform is all over NE, lol.

Some models are hinting at it, yea. We’ve seen it before too. One big ass bandie from Maine to CT.

[weathafella]

45 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Only 12k NAM and Euro show this as some bombed-out HECS monster. GGEM/GFS/ICON/3k NAM/RGEM all show something fairly "standard." Still a nice storm but not something that will be endlessly referenced here for years to come.

3k, ukmet, cmc give eastern areas 15+ up and down the coast in eastern New England.    If Boston gets 25 (eg the normally conservative F5 aka narcan (due to its stinginess) has 2 feet in bos from NAM, 22.5 from gfs,   Waiting in ukmet, cmc,, euro.